forkyfork Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 climate change isn't being expressed through a homogenous increase in temps globally it's being expressed through extremes that average out to that increase 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 2 hours ago, MANDA said: Living in Georgia and doing his podcast thing. Great forecaster. Joe Cioffi is one of my all time favorites. The Joestradamus stuff he used to due on channel 11 was a lot of fun. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Awesome 2 part storm One day a winter storm warning and then a blizzard warning the day after. I actually don't remember the 2002 storm, guess I'm getting old. My daughter was 2 months old; 2003 I remember because they would not let us go home early from work even though the teachers and kids were leaving. I remember the supervisor chasing people to the parking lot. God, I'm so glad to be retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Nothing doing but snow showers in Central pa,there is a clipper diving down but we prob wont get much out of it. Maybe a flurry later on tonight. Ill take mood flakes atp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: climate change isn't being expressed through a homogenous increase in temps globally it's being expressed through extremes that average out to that increase That would mean a lot of regions average below normal (especially if most of the US has been above average)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Euro weeklies is also cooler for Christmas week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 The weeklies have not been great the last 2-3 yrs-seems like they show a great pattern in the LR only for it to warm up as we draw closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 4 hours ago, MANDA said: Nasty, twisted guy and I NEVER post stuff like this but he is just nasty in addition to the the fact that he is seldom right about anything. He went all in on big cold/snow last yr that never came.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 eventually it has to get cold and stormy.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Despite sunshine, the temperature topped out at 34° in Central Park. The last time New York City saw a 34° or below high temperature was January 21st when the mercury peaked at 31°. The current cold shot will be fairly shortlived. Milder air will return to the region to close the weekend. Temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas by early next week. In addition, rainfall will likely accompany the return of milder temperatures. Monday night thrugh Wednesday night looks particularly wet. Following the rainfall, it could turn briefly colder late in the week before milder air again returns. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +23.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.167 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 10 minutes ago, nycwinter said: eventually it has to get cold and stormy.. And it will if the forecast by many are right about January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The weeklies have not been great the last 2-3 yrs-seems like they show a great pattern in the LR only for it to warm up as we draw closer... Yes but there are signs of a better pattern come Christmas week and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes but there are signs of a better pattern come Christmas week and beyond. Certainly something to watch but models have been flip flopping all over the place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Yes but there are signs of a better pattern come Christmas week and beyond. I want to believe, I really do but doesn’t everyone remember last year? Pattern flip after Christmas, then after New Years and then when it finally came it was not impressive and then it was back to the warmth. Eventually I believe winter will return and this period will be just a bad memory. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 6 hours ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Nothing doing but snow showers in Central pa,there is a clipper diving down but we prob wont get much out of it. Maybe a flurry later on tonight. Ill take mood flakes atp. What time will it start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 10 hours ago, Dark Star said: What time will it start? Apparently tonight,my forecast went from clear and chilly to chance of snow and sleet tonight. Also there is a clipper diving down thru mich currently. Something to track for the day i guess.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 11 hours ago, wishcast_hater said: I want to believe, I really do but doesn’t everyone remember last year? Pattern flip after Christmas, then after New Years and then when it finally came it was not impressive and then it was back to the warmth. Eventually I believe winter will return and this period will be just a bad memory. . There were a lot of us who were not believers in late Dec and early Jan last year… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 32 / 14 mostly cloudy . Wamup begings today. Wetter Mon - Wed (PM) 0.75 - 1.50 for many. Short 48 period of colder Thu - Fri before an overall near to warmer than normal period into and beyond mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Cold period , should get near normal today EWR: Dec 1: 39 / 24 (-10) Dec 2: 42 / 25 (-8) Dec 3: 44 / 32 (-3) Dec 4: 42 / 24 (-8) Dec 5: 41 / 31 (-5) Dec 6: 37 / 30 (-7) NYC: DEC 1: 38 / 27 (-10) DEC 2: 39 / 29 (-9) DEC: 3 42 / 32 (-6) Dec 4: 42 / 30 (-6) Dec 5: 40 / 31 (-6) Dec 6: 34 / 30 (-10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 19 hours ago, forkyfork said: climate change isn't being expressed through a homogenous increase in temps globally it's being expressed through extremes that average out to that increase That said, we’re better off using 10yr mean as opposed to 30 year climo in the seasonal and sub seasonal range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Records: Highs: EWR: 76 (1998) NYC: 75 (1998) LGA: 75 (1998) JFK: 75 (1998) Lows: EWR: 16 (1954) NYC: 10 (1926) LGA: 17 (1954) JFK: 20 (1964) Historical: 1740 - In early December two weeks of mild and rainy weather culminated in the worst flood in fifty years in the Lower Connecticut River Valley. The Merrimack River swelled to its highest level, and in Maine the raging waters swept away mills, carried off bridges, and ruined highways. (David Ludlum) 1935 - Severe flooding hit parts of the Houston, TX, area. Eight persons were killed as one hundred city blocks were inundated. Satsuma reported 16.49 inches of rain. The Buffalo and White Oak Bayous crested on the 9th. (6th-8th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Heavy rain fell across eastern Puerto Rico, with 19.41 inches reported at Las Piedras. Flooding caused five million dollars damage. Another in a series of storms hit the northwestern U.S., with wind gusts above 100 mph reported at Cape Blanco OR. While snow and gusty winds accompanied a cold front crossing the Rockies, strong westerly winds, gusting to 93 mph at Boulder CO, helped temperatures in western Kansas reach the 60s for the sixth day in a row. Freezing drizzle in northeastern slowed traffic to 5 mph on some roads in Morrow County. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - An outbreak of cold arctic air brought up to 18 inches of snow to the Colorado Rockies, with 14 inches at Boulder CO, and seven inches at Denver. Heavy snow blanketed New Mexico the following day, with 15 inches reported near Ruidoso. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A storm moving out of the Central Rocky Mountain Region spread snow across Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas and Tennessee. Snowfall totals ranged up to 7.5 inches at Winfield KS. Freezing rain on trees and power lines cut off electricity to 24,000 homes in northeastern Arkansas, and 40,000 homes in the Nashville TN area were without electricity for several hours. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 The good news is that the rainfall is slowly starting to recover a bit after one of our driest falls which have left some reservoirs near record lows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: The good news is that the rainfall is slowly starting to recover a bit after one of our driest falls which have left some reservoirs near record lows. Yeah looks like a rainy few days possible, and Wednesday could be a solid soaking. I'll take it. People need to temper snow expectations until January. Honestly the way things have gone recently, I'd always wager on more snow in March than December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 More on the Dec 1998 record warm first week https://news.cornell.edu/stories/1998/12/1998-may-be-warmest-northeast-year-ever-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Wow thought it would have been December of 2013. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Wet week on tap 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 What time will it start?December 32nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Wow thought it would have been December of 2013. nah, Dec 2013 actually started and ended warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: nah, Dec 2013 actually started and ended warm I still think in the end the month probably averages above normal, down in the southern MA/SE/TN Valley though a few places could see their first below December since 2010 since the period from 12/8-12/10 and 12/15-22 won't be as relatively torchy vs normal there as it will be here and in SNE, I think a few might have been below in 2020 in 2017 but a few sites averaged barely above those 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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