December 2024

[MJO812]

If the MJO continues to move along , we should see a change to favorable conditions at the end of this month. 

[North and West]

2002:  
 
Dec 5

 
 
2003
 
Dec 5:
 
 

Footage of me seeing old weather channel graphics and snowstorm outcomes



.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

Footage of me seeing old weather channel graphics and snowstorm outcomes



.

Awesome 2 part storm

One day a winter storm warning and then a blizzard warning the day after. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Awesome 2 part storm

One day a winter storm warning and then a blizzard warning the day after. 

The December 2000 to 2010 era was our best for December snowfall. The snows really  began to diminish after the Boxing Day Blizzard. With how warm Decembers have become you really need elevation for warning level events over 6”.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	8.9	8.9
2010	20.1	20.1
2009	12.4	12.4
2008	6.0	6.0
2007	2.9	2.9
2006	0.0	0.0
2005	9.7	9.7
2004	3.0	3.0
2003	19.8	19.8
2002	11.0	11.0
2001	T	T
2000	13.4	13.4

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	2.4	2.4
2024	T	T
2023	T	T
2022	T	T
2021	0.2	0.2
2020	10.5	10.5
2019	2.5	2.5
2018	T	T
2017	7.7	7.7
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	T	T
2014	1.0	1.0
2013	8.6	8.6
2012	0.4	0.4
2011	0.0	0.0

 

[Poker2015]

11 hours ago, steve392 said:

Morristown, nj area? 

Branchburg, but I'm sure they are in Morristown tonight too

5 flew over Home Depot in Bridgewater when we were getting a Christmas tree last night

[the_other_guy]

24 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Awesome 2 part storm

One day a winter storm warning and then a blizzard warning the day after. 

I was in Manhattan walking around seeing the tree. It was a good storm, but it never panned out to what they said.

Snow was very wet as early Dec storms usually are

[the_other_guy]

A lot of warmth on 11th.

Dont think it is that close

 

As for flip to colder/snowier at the end of the month, I like history. history shows that if December is a gutter ball for a La Niña, the winter is fucked.

12/8-12/15 look AN. Sometimes by a lot

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

32 / 7 clear. Windy, highest gust here 28 MPH.  Cold next 20 hours.  Warmer by Sun - Thu, but wetter, with 0.75 - 1.50 inches of rain by Thu for many.  Overall neat noramal / warmer than normal into and beyond mid month.

 

[SACRUS]

Highest gusts last 25 hours - 

JFK: 43
LGA: 41
EWR: 38
NYC: 32

[SACRUS]

 

 

Cold period (so far)

EWR: 

Dec 1:  39 / 24 (-10)
Dec 2:  42 / 25 (-8)
Dec 3:  44 / 32 (-3)
Dec 4: 42 / 24 (-8)
Dec 5: 41 / 31 (-5)
 

 

NYC:

DEC 1: 38 / 27 (-10)
DEC 2:  39 / 29 (-9)
DEC: 3 42 / 32  (-6)
Dec 4:  42 / 30 (-6)
Dec 5: 40 / 31  (-6)

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (2001)
NYC: 71 (2001)
LGA: 72 (2001)
JFK: 70 (2001)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 17 (1954)
NYC: 11 (1871)
LGA: 18 (1942)
JFK: 21 (2007)

 

Historical:

 

1886 - A great snowstorm hit the southern Appalachain Mountains. The three day storm produced 25 inches at Rome GA, 33 inches at Asheville NC, and 42 inches in the mountains. Montgomery AL received a record eleven inches of snow. Columbia SC received one to two inches of sleet. (4th-6th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1913:A snowstorm from December 1st through the 6th dumps a record total of 45.7 inches in Denver, Colorado. This storm produced the most snow ever recorded in a single Denver snowstorm.

1970 - A windstorm toppled the National Christmas Tree at the White House. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1970:The National Christmas tree in 1970 was a 78 foot spruce from South Dakota. On the way to Washington, the train carrying the tree derailed twice in Nebraska. On the weekend before the lighting event, the tree toppled in gusty winds and required new branches to fill it out.
 

1987 - Another in a series of storms brought high winds and heavy rain to the northwestern U.S., with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. In northern California, Crescent City was drenched with 2.58 inches of rain, and winds gusted to 90 mph. Up to fourteen inches of snow blanketed the mountains of northern California, and snow and high winds created blizzard conditions around Lake Tahoe NV. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The morning low at Bismarck, ND, was eleven degrees warmer than the record low of 25 degrees at Meridian MS, and during the afternoon half a dozen cities in the north central and northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 57 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Heavy snow blanketed the Central Rocky Mountain Region. Totals in the southern foothills of Colorado ranged up to 17 inches at Rye. Arctic air invaded the north central U.S. Lincoln NE, which reported a record high of 69 degrees the previous afternoon, was 35 degrees colder. International Falls MN was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 9 degrees below zero, and temperatures in northern Minnesota hovered near zero through the daylight hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[SACRUS]

 

Warmer / Wetter week ahead, mainly Mon - Wed

 

[SACRUS]

14 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, that 1886 storm is mighty impressive. Unfortunately, the records for Asheville, North Carolina are missing that month, or it would be their biggest snowstorm of record.

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like it was 33 inches 

[MANDA]

12 hours ago, MJO812 said:

DT was on the Joe Cioffi show this evening talking about the pattern. He loves a big change to colder and snowier at the end of this month and next month .

https://www.youtube.com/live/mWL0xRd1dSs?si=Yh5-ifZrT0JFeNSx

Surprised Joe would stoop so low.

[MANDA]

12 hours ago, Monty said:

What's Cioffi up to these days? He was the backup to Alan Kasper on 1015 growing up, and is a better forecaster than Dan Zarrow, but I haven't heard much from him. 

Living in Georgia and doing his podcast thing.  Great forecaster.

[wdrag]

Good Friday morning everyone,  St Nicholas Day for the European background.

I've attached the snowfall via CoCoRaHs for what is my second snowstorm of the season (I84 west end 11/21 (10-20" far nw NJ and Poconos) and the ne end 12/5 (a solid 4-8" n CT and interior MA). The big snows to the Lee of the Lakes all supports the unfolding weak La Niña snow north and uncertain against going over averages for I95 (this presuming all LaNina assessments will make it to weak status). Bummer for us so far in NYC.

I was contemplating a thread for yesterdays miss in NYC, and again for the coming probable miss this Saturday night.  The 12z HRRR and ICON make it close and it's at night but just not enough confidence to get this first measurable snowfall of the season going for all NYC climate sites and BOS itself. Will re-review tonight and Saturday morning.   The article snapshot below was dated 11/25...of interest how it showed above normal snowfall interior CT/interior MA, much as it happened yesterday!

How A Weak La Niña Could Affect Winter Snowfall

Jonathan Erdman

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Warmer / Wetter week ahead, mainly Mon - Wed

 

We actually want a slightly stronger Southeast Ridge so the heaviest rainfall offshore shifts west by 100-200 miles since we really need the rain.

New run

Old run

 

[winterwx21]

Sucks that the long range looks so ugly. Very mild as we move through mid to late December. Hopefully it will change late month just in time for the holidays. It would be nice to see some snowflakes around holiday time. 

At least Wednesday is looking like a good soaking with at least an inch of rain. Obviously we really need it. Long way to go to bust this drought. 

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Sucks that the long range looks so ugly. Very mild as we move through mid to late December. Hopefully it will change late month just in time for the holidays. It would be nice to see some snowflakes around holiday time. 

At least Wednesday is looking like a good soaking with at least an inch of rain. Obviously we really need it. Long way to go to bust this drought. 

Yeah I was planning a getaway for a couple days hoping to go north or west to see snow. Right now that doesn't even look likely. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Surprised Joe would stoop so low.

Of course DT is going for another cold/snowy winter in the east. This is how many in a row he’s done this now? 10? Then if it’s obvious that it’s not going to work out, he will completely bail on his forecast, say he miscalculated something and viciously attack anyone who disagrees with him….curse them out on twitter, demean them, wish cancer and covid on them. It’s the same old routine with him every winter

[MJO812]

We can't even get lucky with clippers. Smfh

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course DT is going for another cold/snowy winter in the east. This is how many in a row he’s done this now? 10? Then if it’s obvious that it’s not going to work out, he will completely bail on his forecast, say he miscalculated something and viciously attack anyone who disagrees with him….curse them out on twitter, demean them, wish cancer and covid on them. It’s the same old routine with him every winter

He is not alone with the thinking of the pattern changing at the end of this month when the mjo goes into 7 and 8

2013-2014 keeps popping up for many forecasters.

[the_other_guy]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We actually want a slightly stronger Southeast Ridge so the heaviest rainfall offshore shifts west by 100-200 miles since we really need the rain.

New run

Old run

 

Only you are looking for rain in December.

We got enough rain to put out immediate threats. Let’s hope it stays well off shore

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He is not alone with the thinking of the pattern changing at the end of this month when the mjo goes into 7 and 8

2013-2014 keeps popping up for many forecasters.

But that's every year. 

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

He is not alone with the thinking of the pattern changing at the end of this month when the mjo goes into 7 and 8

2013-2014 keeps popping up for many forecaster.

I think it’s far from a foregone conclusion that we definitely go MJO 8-1-2 Anthony. Just posted about this: 

“I think the bigger question is this….do we actually see the MJO push into phases 8-1-2 in January or is this just another case of it totally crapping out at the dateline like we’ve seen over and over again? There is still an SSTA furnace in phases 4-7 and law of thermodynamics, that’s where the atmosphere is going to want to put the strongest and most persistent convection. That has not changed one iota. With the marked change toward a La Niña in the ENSO gynre, +SOI, -IOD, EWBs, standing wave convection, I’m not so sure we see a decided push into 8-1-2. The wave may fizzle out in the relatively cooler waters in those phase areas and the enhanced Niña trades may shear the convection apart as it tries to make a push to and beyond the IDL”

 

”I am doubtful of a major SSWE. Not to minimize the study GaWx found, which was compelling, but just based on the data StormchaserChuck posted, we are very closely (so far) following the Niña/+QBO/high solar years that featured a very cold stratosphere. Secondly, this year’s +QBO event isn’t just strong. It’s approaching record strong numbers”

[MANDA]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Of course DT is going for another cold/snowy winter in the east. This is how many in a row he’s done this now? 10? Then if it’s obvious that it’s not going to work out, he will completely bail on his forecast, say he miscalculated something and viciously attack anyone who disagrees with him….curse them out on twitter, demean them, wish cancer and covid on them. It’s the same old routine with him every winter

Nasty, twisted guy and I NEVER post stuff like this but he is just nasty in addition to the the fact that he is seldom right about anything.

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Nasty, twisted guy and I NEVER post stuff like this but he is just nasty in addition to the the fact that he is seldom right about anything.

The best was in 2016 when he was freaking out because Richmond went over to sleet and Paul Kocin tweeted back Richmond's sleet is NYCs snow

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

Only you are looking for rain in December.

We got enough rain to put out immediate threats. Let’s hope it stays well off shore

That’s not correct since we really need the rain for water supplies and not just vegetation concerns which are lesser this time of year.  It’s important to start making up the fall precipitation deficit during the winter months so water restrictions don’t occur during the growing season. The last thing we want to see is a drought pattern go into the summer in a much warmer world than last droughts over 20 years ago.

[STORMANLI]

In a warming climate, what kind of adjustment should be made to using analog years? Or is the fact that 2013-14 Winter was"only" 11 years ago mean  a minor or no adjustment?

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

In a warming climate, what kind of adjustment should be made to using analog years? Or is the fact that 2013-14 Winter was"only" 11 years ago mean  a minor or no adjustment?

 

We had alot of cold storms that year. A degree wouldn't make a difference in that case although the Feb 14th storm was a borderline event