nycwinter Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 10 minutes ago, steve392 said: Not to go off topic. 7.0 hit off California coast, tsunami warning in effect. wont be a big deal was not a massive quake and the shaking was not minutes long.. any tsunami would be very small.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Strongest gusts on the Jersey Shore so far. Barnegat Inlet Light 54 MPH 0131 PM 12/05 WXFLOW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: wont be a big deal was not a massive quake and the shaking was not minutes long.. any tsunami would be very small.. it got me reading about 2004. imagine an earthquake lasting 4 minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 7 minutes ago, nycwinter said: wont be a big deal was not a massive quake and the shaking was not minutes long.. any tsunami would be very small.. Tsunami warning just canceled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The Big Apple is in need of 7.7" by the end of the month to avoid the least snowy 2-year period in its long and storied climate history. Odds of a record? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: it got me reading about 2004. imagine an earthquake lasting 4 minutes actually the 2004 indian ocean quake lasted 10 minutes.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: The Big Apple is in need of 7.7" by the end of the month to avoid the least snowy 2-year period in its long and storied climate history. Odds of a record? If we consider instead any 24 month period without regard for the calendar year, but ending at the culmination of a month, then the least snowy 2-year period is the 2 years ending January 31, of this year. Only 7.0" of snow fell at Central Park in that interval. Definitely a snow drought without parallel in the history of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Peak gust of 54 mph along the barrier island this afternoon. Enough to knock down this power pole 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Barnegat Bay is rightfully angry too. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 In the wake of today's clipper system that brought New York City and Newark their first snowfall of the season (just a trace), it will turn much colder. The temperature will struggle just to reach and exceed freezing in New York City tomorrow. The post-clipper cold shot will be fairly shortlived. Milder air will return to the region to close the weekend. Temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas by early next week. The latest ECMWF weeklies have moved into agreement with the CFSv2 in showing generally above normal temperatures through much of the remainder of December. The CFSv2 remains more aggressive with the magnitude of wrmth. Beyond two weeks, skill scores are low, so the persistent warmth isn't cast in stone just yet. Moreover, short-duration cold shots remain possible. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +28.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.143 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Maybe the record SSTs in the Gulf can help boost the PWAT plume streaming north for some much needed rainfall next week. Plus a slightly stronger WAR could shift the storm track further west over time so the max totals are over the area instead of just to the East. We just don’t want too far a shift west since we really need the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Records: Highs: EWR: 72 (2001) NYC: 70 (2001) LGA: 69 (2001) JFK: 65 (2001) Lows: EWR: 15 (1935) NYC: 11 (1926) LGA: 21 (1942) JFK: 20 (1966*) Historical: 1886 - A big snowstorm in the southeastern U.S. produced 11 inches at Montgomery AL, 18.5 inches at Rome GA, and 22.5 inches at Knoxville TN. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1886: A southern storm dumped heavy snow up into far southwest Virginia. The storm dumped 11 inches in Montgomery Alabama and 22.5 inches in Knoxville, TN. It also dropped 25 inches in Rome, Georgia, and 26 inches in Ashville, North Carolina. 1941 - The temperature at Enosburg Falls soared to 72 degrees to establish a state record for Vermont for the month of December. (The Weather Channel) 1953 - A killer tornado hit Vicksburg, MS, killing 38 persons, injuring 270 others, and causing 25 million dollars damage, the most damage since the forty-seven days of continuous shelling the town received in the Civil War. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Heavy snow blanketed parts of the north central U.S., and freezing drizzle produced a coat of ice up to half an inch thick in northwestern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Snowfall totals ranged up to seven inches at Grand Rapids MN, and 12 inches at Seney MI. High winds in the north central U.S. gusted to 63 mph at Pellston MI, and reached 70 mph at Makinaw Bridge MI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - There was only a "flurry" of activity, as for much of the nation winter remained on hold. The cold and snow of winter was primarily confined to the northeastern U.S. Five cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Norfolk NE with a reading of 65 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A warm Pacific storm system brought high winds and heavy rain to western Washington and western Oregon. Up to ten inches of rain deluged the western slopes of the Cascade Mountain Range in Washington State over a three day period, and 500 persons had to be evacuated due to flooding along the Skagit River. Up to five inches of rain drenched northwest Oregon, and winds gusted to 71 mph at Netarts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2003 - A major winter storm impacted parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during the 5th-7th. Snowfall accumulations of one to two feet were common across areas of Pennsylvania northward into New England. Boston, MA received 16.2 inches while Providence, RI had the greatest single snowstorm on record with 17 inches, beating the previous record of 12 inches set December 5-6, 1981. Boston's Logan International Airport was closed briefly on the 7th as heavy snowfall made regular airport operations impossible (AFP). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2002: Dec 5 2003 Dec 5: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 19 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 72 (2001) NYC: 70 (2001) LGA: 69 (2001) JFK: 65 (2001) Lows: EWR: 15 (1935) NYC: 11 (1926) LGA: 21 (1942) JFK: 20 (1966*) Historical: 1886 - A big snowstorm in the southeastern U.S. produced 11 inches at Montgomery AL, 18.5 inches at Rome GA, and 22.5 inches at Knoxville TN. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1886: A southern storm dumped heavy snow up into far southwest Virginia. The storm dumped 11 inches in Montgomery Alabama and 22.5 inches in Knoxville, TN. It also dropped 25 inches in Rome, Georgia, and 26 inches in Ashville, North Carolina. 1941 - The temperature at Enosburg Falls soared to 72 degrees to establish a state record for Vermont for the month of December. (The Weather Channel) 1953 - A killer tornado hit Vicksburg, MS, killing 38 persons, injuring 270 others, and causing 25 million dollars damage, the most damage since the forty-seven days of continuous shelling the town received in the Civil War. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Heavy snow blanketed parts of the north central U.S., and freezing drizzle produced a coat of ice up to half an inch thick in northwestern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Snowfall totals ranged up to seven inches at Grand Rapids MN, and 12 inches at Seney MI. High winds in the north central U.S. gusted to 63 mph at Pellston MI, and reached 70 mph at Makinaw Bridge MI. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - There was only a "flurry" of activity, as for much of the nation winter remained on hold. The cold and snow of winter was primarily confined to the northeastern U.S. Five cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Norfolk NE with a reading of 65 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - A warm Pacific storm system brought high winds and heavy rain to western Washington and western Oregon. Up to ten inches of rain deluged the western slopes of the Cascade Mountain Range in Washington State over a three day period, and 500 persons had to be evacuated due to flooding along the Skagit River. Up to five inches of rain drenched northwest Oregon, and winds gusted to 71 mph at Netarts. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2003 - A major winter storm impacted parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during the 5th-7th. Snowfall accumulations of one to two feet were common across areas of Pennsylvania northward into New England. Boston, MA received 16.2 inches while Providence, RI had the greatest single snowstorm on record with 17 inches, beating the previous record of 12 inches set December 5-6, 1981. Boston's Logan International Airport was closed briefly on the 7th as heavy snowfall made regular airport operations impossible (AFP). Wow, that 1886 storm is mighty impressive. Unfortunately, the records for Asheville, North Carolina are missing that month, or it would be their biggest snowstorm of record. Easily the biggest snowstorm on record at Knoxville, even today. The 14.3" storm total at Chatanooga [actually 14.5" if you include the 0.2" from 12-3] is second biggest behind the March 1993 Superstorm, which dumped 20 inches. Second highest single day snowfall at Chatanooga, and third highest at Knoxville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 34 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 2002: Dec 5 2003 Dec 5: The 2003 one was fun, as the Part 1 overrunning was supposed to change to rain and never did even on the south shore barrier islands. I had 8" or so from that when there was supposed to be 1-3" maybe before rain. The second part was OK where I live but where the banding could pivot around was epic and ended with 20"+. I think I ended with 13-14". 2002 was also, but it was more a general quick hitting 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Maybe the record SSTs in the Gulf can help boost the PWAT plume streaming north for some much needed rainfall next week. Plus a slightly stronger WAR could shift the storm track further west over time so the max totals are over the area instead of just to the East. We just don’t want too far a shift west since we really need the rain. Drought Monitor issued today show virtually no change even with the rainfall we have had so yeah, we do need the rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 These drones still flying all over with the windy conditions. Whole bunch flying over tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 13 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: These drones still flying all over with the windy conditions. Whole bunch flying over tonight. Morristown, nj area? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 2002: Dec 5 2003 Dec 5: Don't remember 2003 but 2002 was awesome! We had another storm says later on 12/8, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 29 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: These drones still flying all over with the windy conditions. Whole bunch flying over tonight. Many reports here again tonight, too, by neighbors via the Ring community. Bizarre. I have not seen any tonight but 2-3 nights ago there were about four. Not sure if this is folks trying to create a mass hysteria? There is nothing nefarious about a drone hovering. My son does a lot of nighttime time lapse of NYC etc with his. It will hover 1o minutes gathering images. That being said, why so many all at once? Are folks just more aware? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 9 minutes ago, BlizzLuv said: Many reports here again tonight, too, by neighbors via the Ring community. Bizarre. I have not seen any tonight but 2-3 nights ago there were about four. Not sure if this is folks trying to create a mass hysteria? There is nothing nefarious about a drone hovering. My son does a lot of nighttime time lapse of NYC etc with his. It will hover 1o minutes gathering images. That being said, why so many all at once? Are folks just more aware? Why would folks "try to make a mass hysteria?" You just said yourself this is anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 52 minutes ago, Poker2015 said: These drones still flying all over with the windy conditions. Whole bunch flying over tonight. The New Jersey things aren’t UFOs. However there have been a LOT of actual UFO footage lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 28 minutes ago, Monty said: Why would folks "try to make a mass hysteria?" You just said yourself this is anomalous. I am just puzzled by it and pondering out loud. It seems too many and too widespread to be some kids or folks flying at once and trying to create a hysteria. Not sure what is going on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 DT was on the Joe Cioffi show this evening talking about the pattern. He loves a big change to colder and snowier at the end of this month and next month . https://www.youtube.com/live/mWL0xRd1dSs?si=Yh5-ifZrT0JFeNSx 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monty Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DT was on the Joe Cioffi show this evening talking about the pattern. He loves a big change to colder and snowier at the end of this month and next month . https://www.youtube.com/live/mWL0xRd1dSs?si=Yh5-ifZrT0JFeNSx What's Cioffi up to these days? He was the backup to Alan Kasper on 1015 growing up, and is a better forecaster than Dan Zarrow, but I haven't heard much from him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 6 minutes ago, Monty said: What's Cioffi up to these days? He was the backup to Alan Kasper on 1015 growing up, and is a better forecaster than Dan Zarrow, but I haven't heard much from him. I think he moved down south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Trend south with the clipper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 notable trend to buckle this S/W for Sunday. might as well watch to see if this continues, could be a light event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 So close 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: notable trend to buckle this S/W for Sunday. might as well watch to see if this continues, could be a light event I think this is going to be a New England light snow event. Not enough for NYC area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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