NittanyWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 44 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Awful. Not that the models are meant to be accurate at that distance in time, but to be completely opposite would say not to even run them for that period. I guess some day when "AI" is built into the models which would allow them to correct themselves when it sees its own stupidity? I’m using the AI models right now and outside of clear situational bias situations, the EC Ens is beating them fairly often and by a pretty wide margin I met with an AI specialist at an industry event in April and the takeaway was that the AI models right now aren’t operationally sound and should be used as a situational risk assessment datapoint rather than relied on for operational use. You can hindcast and use the reforecast if you want I guess, but I think the AI will have much more use in initial conditions and perturbations before it ever becomes operationally superior in intra run correction 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Rain and snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Winds are reaching the surface in these showers. Dead calm when it isn’t raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Given how conventional weather models are designed and operate, how is "AI" any different? A conventional weather model is an objective prediction not based on any human input (after humans give model latest data), so I can't really see how "AI" is anything different? What does an AI weather model do that a conventional weather model (in use since 1970s) does not do? (and if they aren't as good, what's the point of them, what can in future allow them to outdo the ones we use now?) And what prevents operators of those models from incorporating same advances? Why would one not do so? I guess I am a bit skeptical about the real nature of "AI" and I suspect it is just jargon for "different technique" since we already have weather models that are objectively derived simulations of a future state of the atmosphere, what can AI possibly be other than that same thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Light snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 43 here, wind gusting over 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 40 / 22 some light flurries here wind slowly picking up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Flakes here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Decent snow shower here, though it's 40 degrees so nothing will stick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 windy here with light rain 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 A passing snow shower. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Light snow temp 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Snowing temp down to 35 in N Syosset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Rain and snow, 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 32° w/ Lgt snow coating on all surfaces 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 temperature dropping here, down to 36.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 minute ago, lee59 said: temperature dropping here, down to 36.5 34 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, NittanyWx said: I’m using the AI models right now and outside of clear situational bias situations, the EC Ens is beating them fairly often and by a pretty wide margin I met with an AI specialist at an industry event in April and the takeaway was that the AI models right now aren’t operationally sound and should be used as a situational risk assessment datapoint rather than relied on for operational use. You can hindcast and use the reforecast if you want I guess, but I think the AI will have much more use in initial conditions and perturbations before it ever becomes operationally superior in intra run correction Posts like this are why I still skim through these threads - great insights, thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Just got to work you, would think a blizzard is inbound, they literally salted the entire parking lot with massive amount of salt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bxstormwatcher360 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Some good echos are starting to build to our west and south. Pretty robust for a clipper i might add. I think it switches to all snow when the heavier stuff gets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 12 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Just got to work you, would think a blizzard is inbound, they literally salted the entire parking lot with massive amount of salt. Same thing around here. It is nuts. Never used to be this way. I get it if you want to put some salt down but several places as of late this afternoon were literally dumping it. I came out of an office building and had to do a double take to realize what was on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, NittanyWx said: I’m using the AI models right now and outside of clear situational bias situations, the EC Ens is beating them fairly often and by a pretty wide margin I met with an AI specialist at an industry event in April and the takeaway was that the AI models right now aren’t operationally sound and should be used as a situational risk assessment datapoint rather than relied on for operational use. You can hindcast and use the reforecast if you want I guess, but I think the AI will have much more use in initial conditions and perturbations before it ever becomes operationally superior in intra run correction Can you comment on whether the ECMWF AI model one sees in the model sites, like Pivotal (ECMWF-AIFS, for AI-enhanced deterministic global forecast) is the Google DeepMind GraphCast model referred to in the article below about AI and weather forecasting? The quote in one of the embedded tweets in the link below says, "The Google DeepMind GraphCast model is available on the ECMWF platform. It's open-source and can predict weather conditions 10 days in advance with better accuracy than current methods." If so, certainly the article below is at odds with your commentary on their accuracy. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2023/12/ai-weather-forecasting-climate-crisis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 27 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said: Some good echos are starting to build to our west and south. Pretty robust for a clipper i might add. I think it switches to all snow when the heavier stuff gets in. Those heavier echoes are BS, it's barely a flurry under them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Steady snow currently 38 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Light snow, 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Heavy burst of wet snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 This is more interesting than I expected. Just had a rumble of thunder with the snow. Temp 34.7° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Rain in little ferry, nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Steady snow currently 38 Have the slightest of dustings on a few cold spots; perhaps they'll close the schools, lol (for years I gave the Metuchen schools superintendent detailed weather info they used to help make such decisions). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 snowing in white plains:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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