December 2024

[MJO812]

I wonder if we will get a storm to trend in our favor before it gets milder. Teleconnections are still in our favor right now

[Allsnow]

27 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

haven't had a decent storm at my place along the beach since January 2018 when we got 22 inches and 5 hours of blizzard conditions - west of the parkway amounts dropped off significantly. 

We failed to get an inch the last two winters. 

January 2022? 

[Big Jims Videos]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

January 2022? 

we didn't get nearly as much at my place as they did down south - LBI down to AC jackpotted in that - I did get to stand in it on the AC boardwalk all morning which made up for the loss at home. 

[eduggs]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is close

IF the ECM is close, we have a great week of model tracking ahead of us:

Excellent trof alignment, STJ and polar jet phasing, shortwaves diving south through central US with fresh cold air, high pressure over upper midwest, moisture surging from the Gulf, and low SLP in the southeast. Oh how we dream.

I'm pessimistic about this potential threat until we get multi-model and multi-cycle runs that are close enough to a wintry threat without huge run to run changes.

[MJO812]

EPO crashes on the Euro in the long range.  

[North and West]

EPO crashes on the Euro in the long range.  

.

[vegan_edible]

op euro has been claiming this long range cool down for a few runs

[eduggs]

Some nice radar returns streaking from central IN through OH. I don't think much is reaching the ground though. IF the models are underrepresenting this virga/precip, it could boost QPF slightly this evening across NEPA, extreme NNJ, the mid-HV, over to NWCT.

[SACRUS]

 

40 / 18 cloudy with some breaks ahead of the main clipper system.  Colder Thu - Sat.  Warmer / wetter next week.

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/NE/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

 

 

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

On 12/3/2024 at 12:20 PM, SACRUS said:

 

Cold period (so far)

EWR: 

Dec 1:  39 / 24 (-10)
Dec 2:  42 / 25 (-8)
Dec 3:  44 / 32 (-3)
 

 

NYC:

DEC 1: 38 / 27 (-10)
DEC 2:  39 / 29 (-9)
DEC: 3 42 / 32  (-6)
 

 

[donsutherland1]

It should be noted that the operational ECMWF is having wildly differing solutions (poor run-to-run continuity in the long-range).

The 12/4 0z run: 360 Hours

The 12/4 12z run: 348 Hours

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs: 

EWR: 75 (1998)
NYC: 74 (1998)
LGA: 74 (1998)
JFK: 70 (1998)


Lows:

EWR: 9 (1940)
NYC: 10 (1882)
LGA: 12 (1940)
JFK: 15 (1966)

 

Historical:

 

1786 - The first of two great early December storms began. The storm produced 18 inches of snow at Morristown NJ, and twenty inches of snow at New Haven CT. It also resulted in high tides at Nantucket which did great damage. (David Ludlum)

 

1952: The month of December started off with chilly temperatures in London. This cold resulted in Londoners to burn more coal to heat up their homes. Then on December 5, a high pressure settled over the Thames River causing a dense layer of smog to develop. The smog became so thick and dense by December 7 that virtually no sunlight was seen in London. Most conservative estimates place the death toll at 4,000, with some estimating the smog killed as many as 8,000 individuals.

1972 - Winds gusting to 70 mph sent the temperature at Livingston, MT, plunging from 52 degrees to 18 degrees in just twenty minutes. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - The temperature in New York City's Central Park reached 72 degrees to establish a record high for December. The month as a whole was also the warmest of record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - A cold front crossing the Pacific Coast Region brought high winds and heavy rain to California. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 55 mph at Newport Beach CA, and Mount Wilson CA was drenched with 2.17 inches of rain in six hours. Gale force winds prevailed along the Northern Pacific Coast, and winds in the Tehachapis Mountains of southern California gusted to 60 mph. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Gale force winds continued to usher cold arctic air into the northeastern U.S. Winds gusted to 65 mph at Windsor Locks CT. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the higher elevations of Vermont. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Seventeen cities in the eastern U.S., including nine in Florida, reported record low temperatures for the date. Lakeland FL reported a record low of 31 degrees, and Watertown NY was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 20 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2002 - An early season winter storm brought an expansive shield of snow and ice through much of the eastern U.S., from the lower Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians and into the Northeast. Snow accumulations of 4-8 inches were common along the northern edge of the precipitation shield, while a significant accrual of glaze occurred in the Carolinas. The storm caused at least 17 fatalities, mostly from traffic accidents (CNN). In the Carolinas, electric utilities provider Duke Power characterized the ice storm as the worst in the company's history, with 1.2 million customers or nearly half its entire customer base without power on the morning of the 5th. This surpassed electrical outages inflicted by Hurricane Hugo as it swept through the central Carolinas in September 1989.

 

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that the operational ECMWF is having wildly differing solutions (poor run-to-run continuity in the long-range).

The 12/4 0z run: 360 Hours

The 12/4 12z run: 348 Hours

So much for that big “upgrade”. They made it worse. Completely unreliable, they destroyed it. That model has become a joke

[SACRUS]

 

NYC: 

1957- Snow that started falling late last night continued overnight, and after a five-hour break resumed later in the morning, accumulating 8.0".  The flakes came down heaviest between 11 AM and 2 PM, when they fell at a rate of an inch per hour.  This was the most snow to fall so early in the season since 1938.

[NittanyWx]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So much for that big “upgrade”. They made it worse. Completely unreliable, they destroyed it. That model has become a joke

It’s not supposed to be a reliable week 2 model.  People forget that when the Euro was supposedly at its peak, most people didn’t even get the 8-10 day panels and they weren’t particularly useful either.

 

This is just a control run, and as such it should be treated that way.  Bastardi and Margusity and all these old school guys used to treat these like they’re reliable, but you’re seeing now why there’s no benefit to using it over an ensemble mean.  There really wasn’t any benefit back then either.  Just bad meteo by guys with a spotty hit rate in storms.

 

 

[North and West]

It should be noted that the operational ECMWF is having wildly differing solutions (poor run-to-run continuity in the long-range).
The 12/4 0z run: 360 Hours

The 12/4 12z run: 348 Hours

Nice side-by-side! It’ll change again tomorrow.



.

[wishcast_hater]

There has also been minimal cold air. 

So we have been below normal with snow for quite a while. Are there places in the Northern Hemisphere that has been getting above average snowfall?

If we are constantly getting cutters, then aren’t folks to the way west of us getting more snow being on the cold side of the low?


.

[Stormlover74]

49 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

So we have been below normal with snow for quite a while. Are there places in the Northern Hemisphere that has been getting above average snowfall?

If we are constantly getting cutters, then aren’t folks to the way west of us getting more snow being on the cold side of the low?


.

I think Minneapolis got slammed last year or the year before

 

Edit it was 2022-23. Their 3rd snowiest winter

[MJO812]

Watch this before the milder pattern 

Colder than 12z

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Watch this before the milder pattern 

Colder than 12z

Looks way way off from snow for us

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks way way off from snow for us

Not that far

Good trend from 12z. We are still in a good pattern.  Hopefully this trends more south before the milder pattern comes.

[Tatamy]

Very light snow and flurries here.  36/23

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Not that far

Good trend from 12z. We are still in a good pattern.  Hopefully this trends more south before the milder pattern comes.

A couple members on the GEFS biting on it however the mean is still well north and west.

[LoboLeader1]

57 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Very light snow and flurries here.  36/23

Light snow falling here in the Berks, currently 30F.

[MJO812]

Jma

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that the operational ECMWF is having wildly differing solutions (poor run-to-run continuity in the long-range).

The 12/4 0z run: 360 Hours

The 12/4 12z run: 348 Hours

Awful.  Not that the models are meant to be accurate at that distance in time, but to be completely opposite would say not to even run them for that period.  I guess some day when "AI" is built into the models which would allow them to correct themselves when it sees its own stupidity?

[Dark Star]

6 hours ago, eduggs said:

IF the ECM is close, we have a great week of model tracking ahead of us:

Excellent trof alignment, STJ and polar jet phasing, shortwaves diving south through central US with fresh cold air, high pressure over upper midwest, moisture surging from the Gulf, and low SLP in the southeast. Oh how we dream.

I'm pessimistic about this potential threat until we get multi-model and multi-cycle runs that are close enough to a wintry threat without huge run to run changes.

I thought it was supposed to be near 60 by midweek?

[donsutherland1]

A clipper system could bring parts of the region a period of light snow or flurries tonight into tomorrow. Parts of the region could pick up a coating of snow. As colder air rushes into the region behind the clipper, parts of the region could experience some heavier snow showers and even a snow squall tomorrow. Temperatures will tumble into the lower 30s by evening.

The post-clipper cold shot will be fairly shortlived. Milder air will return to the region to close the weekend. Temperatures could reach or exceed 50° in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas by early next week. The latest ECMWF weeklies have moved into agreement with the CFSv2 in showing generally above normal temperatures through much of the remainder of December. The CFSv2 remains more aggressive with the magnitude of wrmth. Beyond two weeks, skill scores are low, so the persistent warmth isn't cast in stone just yet.

The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña.

The SOI was +23.56 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.100 today.

 

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Awful.  Not that the models are meant to be accurate at that distance in time, but to be completely opposite would say not to even run them for that period.  I guess some day when "AI" is built into the models which would allow them to correct themselves when it sees its own stupidity?

The magnitude of the change was astonishing.