December 2024

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We used to get highs in the teens in December 

That was a long time ago. Thing of the past.

[MJO812]

33 here. Not cold at all.

[Stormlover74]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are currently ENSO cold neutral as the La Niña is taking time to develop. But if we do follow the typical La Niña pattern, then 3 inches in December is the cutoff. Below that and NYC will have a below average snowfall season. December 2001 and 1996 were cold neutral and only had a T with below average seasons. 

The one early snowfall indicator which has worked for every La Niña winter in NYC going back to the 95-96 has been the December La Niña snowfall. Years with 3 or more inches December have gone on to above normal seasonal snowfall. Every December with under 3” has had a below average snowfall season. This is why December is so important with La Ninas around NYC.

 

22-23….Dec snow…..T……season….2.3

21-22…..Dec snow….0.2…season…..17.9

20-21…..Dec snow….10.5…season…38.6

17-18……Dec snow….7.7…..season…40.9

16-17…….Dec snow…3.2…..season…30.2

11-12…….Dec snow….0…….season….7.4

10-11…….Dec snow….20.1….season….61.9

08-09…..Dec snow….6.0……season….27.6

07-08…..Dec snow…..2.9…..season….11.9

05-06…..Dec snow…..9.7…….season…40.0

00-01……Dec snow….13.4……season….35.0

99-00…..Dec snow…..T……….season….16.3

98-99…..Dec snow…..2.0……..season….12.7

95-96…..Dec snow…..11.5……..season….75.6

It's so strange though. 2.9" bad winter 3.2" good winter. Seems like we have to break that at some point 

[vegan_edible]

really hoping this is an mjo driven wave while it goes through the warm phases and we can get something happening once it hits 7. however, we've been fooled before, and lets all hope it doesn't die out in the COD and repopulate in 4 creating a neverending feedback loop of january highs of 43 degrees

[Stormlover74]

Wonder if we'll see an upgrade to a high wind warning for spots 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

For the NYC immediate metro area, (true) snow squalls are rare.  Unless you have a truly dynamic system, they are near impossible to predict with accuracy.  Much like a line of summer T-Storms, once they pass over the eastern Appalachians in eastern PA, then move over the foothills of NJ, the downslope robs most of them of their punch.  

Snow squalls that sometimes affect eastern PA and parts of northern and western NJ are typically the ends of lake effect streamers that have some channelized vorticity with them to keep them going.  Without that vorticity they do die out in the Poconos and Catskills and the downsloping finishes the process.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

That was a long time ago. Thing of the past.

and it was an aberration even then

 

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We used to get highs in the teens in December 

That was then.  This is now.  Those days are gone for the foreseeable future.

[psv88]

Maybe we are in a real climate shift. Haven’t had a real winter in a decade. Warmer and less snow. Terrible 

[snowman19]

54 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wonder if we'll see an upgrade to a high wind warning for spots 

Might as well get wind to give us something to talk about because snow side looks like a total non event. The new HREF has basically nothing for the area

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe we are in a real climate shift. Haven’t had a real winter in a decade. Warmer and less snow. Terrible 

20-21 wasnt bad.   But outside of that, pretty awful and we're back to the "we have to wait a month for something to develop"   (Which often doesn't come)

[the_other_guy]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe we are in a real climate shift. Haven’t had a real winter in a decade. Warmer and less snow. Terrible 

Well, in 20 years we can find out. But at present and short-term look back, it feels like that

[Stormlover74]

32 minutes ago, MANDA said:

That was then.  This is now.  Those days are gone for the foreseeable future.

And Dec 89 managed to suck despite all the cold so it's essentially useless.  Give me 2000 or 2010. Both months were cold but the snow held off until late 

[North and West]

really hoping this is an mjo driven wave while it goes through the warm phases and we can get something happening once it hits 7. however, we've been fooled before, and lets all hope it doesn't die out in the COD and repopulate in 4 creating a neverending feedback loop of january highs of 43 degrees

.

[Picard]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe we are in a real climate shift. Haven’t had a real winter in a decade. Warmer and less snow. Terrible 

There's something to this.  Years ago, the vast majority of winters you could reliably ice fish from Christmas through late February/early March.  Now your lucky if it's 1 winter in 3, and even when you do get it, you've probably only got a 2-3 week window.  

Also, what's considered "average" or "normal" temperature is quite a bit different from 50-100 years ago.  A high of 20 degrees will be characterized as "well below average" today, whereas 50 years ago, I don't think people would have said or even thought that.

[weathermedic]

NYC MTA already with the bridge wind advisories:

MTA: Due to expected high winds, empty tractor-trailers and tandem trailers will be prohibited from MTA Bridges from 10AM to 10PM on Thursday, December 5th.

 

[jm1220]

51 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe we are in a real climate shift. Haven’t had a real winter in a decade. Warmer and less snow. Terrible 

We were due for a regression. No way our area can get away with regular 40-50”+ winters and we were due for another crap 80s or late 90s stretch. But we’ll see how long this Pacific SST regime lasts, some of it is probably cyclical and some is climate. 

[North and West]

There's something to this.  Years ago, the vast majority of winters you could reliably ice fish from Christmas through late February/early March.  Now your lucky if it's 1 winter in 3, and even when you do get it, you've probably only got a 2-3 week window.  
Also, what's considered "average" or "normal" temperature is quite a bit different from 50-100 years ago.  A high of 20 degrees will be characterized as "well below average" today, whereas 50 years ago, I don't think people would have said or even thought that.

Cost of modern society.


.

[North and West]

We were due for a regression. No way our area can get away with regular 40-50”+ winters and we were due for another crap 80s or late 90s stretch. But we’ll see how long this Pacific SST regime lasts, some of it is probably cyclical and some is climate. 

. Background state impacting atmospheric chemistry that put us behind in the count combined with the cyclical new fangled acronyms. Batting average is lower when you’re down, but you can still hit.


.

[eduggs]

FWIW, the 6z ECM didn't look bad for a possible 12/12 coastal threat. The 12z GFS also isn't completely hopeless. ICON too. The CMC needs work but I can see a path. Overall the 12z cycle gives a glimmer of hope. Ensembles anyone?

[eduggs]

In the interest of trying to be positive, there is a ton of vorticity passing through over the next day or so. That means it's always possible to get a burst of precipitation and an unexpected surprise. There could be multiple periods of precipitation... though somewhat widely scattered and favoring west facing terrain. From what I can tell looking at soundings, some ptype algorithms that show rain reflect lack of saturation in the snow growth region as opposed to a warm boundary layer.

[psv88]

25 minutes ago, North and West said:

. Background state impacting atmospheric chemistry that put us behind in the count combined with the cyclical new fangled acronyms. Batting average is lower when you’re down, but you can still hit.


.

It’s been hard to get a decent nor’easter. It’s just been cutters or SWFE when we have gotten snow. I agree that the overall pattern has been poor, so it’s definitely not solely climate based. But we really have not had any semblance of a winter in years. 
 

our annual weather is now 8 months of fall, 3 months of summer and one month of winter if we are lucky 

[Stormlover74]

33 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We were due for a regression. No way our area can get away with regular 40-50”+ winters and we were due for another crap 80s or late 90s stretch. But we’ll see how long this Pacific SST regime lasts, some of it is probably cyclical and some is climate. 

Yeah its not like we're getting a bunch of 33 and rain events.  We're just not getting the storms and timing them with the cold air when they do occur

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah its not like we're getting a bunch of 33 and rain events.  We're just not getting the storms and timing them with the cold air when they do occur

There has also been minimal cold air. 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Maybe we are in a real climate shift. Haven’t had a real winter in a decade. Warmer and less snow. Terrible 

Give or take 1/10 of a degree, (I think) the global temperature has risen about 1.5 degrees over the last 100 years.  So I wouldn't expect the dramatic shift we have been seeing.  Some of this board have pointed out that the slowing down of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation has warmed the greater NYC by as much as 4 degrees over the last decade, or so (yes I understand about the expanding heat island effect).  That, plus the stubborn Pacific Jet has been raising this forums temperatures to more than noticeable levels.  Is the position and extent of the Pacific Jet just a normal variation, or is global warming causing it to be fixed where it is?  Has China largely contributed to this stubborn hot spot in the Pacific, since a great deal of the carbon emissions have been transferred to that country over the last 30 years?

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Give or take 1/10 of a degree, (I think) the global temperature has risen about 1.5 degrees over the last 100 years.  So I wouldn't expect the dramatic shift we have been seeing.  Some of this board have pointed out that the slowing down of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation has warmed the greater NYC by as much as 4 degrees over the last decade, or so (yes I understand about the expanding heat island effect).  That, plus the stubborn Pacific Jet has been raising this forums temperatures to more than noticeable levels.  Is the position and extent of the Pacific Jet just a normal variation, or is global warming causing it to be fixed where it is?  Has China largely contributed to this stubborn hot spot in the Pacific, since a great deal of the carbon emissions have been transferred to that country over the last 30 years?

I agree with the above. When I say climate shift I’m not saying the earth as a whole has warmed as much as we have warmed in the winter. I am saying that in our area, whether it’s the weather pattern or background state, we are warmer with less snow for the past decade, with some exceptions of course

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Give or take 1/10 of a degree, (I think) the global temperature has risen about 1.5 degrees over the last 100 years.  So I wouldn't expect the dramatic shift we have been seeing.  Some of this board have pointed out that the slowing down of the Labrador/Gulf Stream circulation has warmed the greater NYC by as much as 4 degrees over the last decade, or so (yes I understand about the expanding heat island effect).  That, plus the stubborn Pacific Jet has been raising this forums temperatures to more than noticeable levels.  Is the position and extent of the Pacific Jet just a normal variation, or is global warming causing it to be fixed where it is?  Has China largely contributed to this stubborn hot spot in the Pacific, since a great deal of the carbon emissions have been transferred to that country over the last 30 years?

The increase in temperature is also disproportionately distributed towards the winter and geographically towards the higher northern latitudes. Plus the oceans have absorbed a good deal of the heat energy, which is just recently starting to have a noticeable impact. That has definitely shifted the mean winter climo a few degrees N in latitude.

[jm1220]

39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah its not like we're getting a bunch of 33 and rain events.  We're just not getting the storms and timing them with the cold air when they do occur

I don’t think we’re in a permanent downturn or anything yet, since we can still make it happen with the right setup like in 20-21 or even the storm in Feb in the brief cold enough air window. The pattern in general’s just been atrocious, and we see cold air records still happening in the West. It’s just their turn to bonanza I think. NNE is still cold enough in general that it just snows there with more moisture. Here it’s never been like that and we need help from a good storm track/pattern. 

[Big Jims Videos]

haven't had a decent storm at my place along the beach since January 2018 when we got 22 inches and 5 hours of blizzard conditions - west of the parkway amounts dropped off significantly. 

We failed to get an inch the last two winters. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

FWIW, the 6z ECM didn't look bad for a possible 12/12 coastal threat. The 12z GFS also isn't completely hopeless. ICON too. The CMC needs work but I can see a path. Overall the 12z cycle gives a glimmer of hope. Ensembles anyone?

Euro is close