ForestHillWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 When did you take a picture of my house? Didn’t know you were in town… 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 The wind Thursday will probably be the bigger story since these events have been overperforming lately. At least advisory level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The wind Thursday will probably be the bigger story since these events have been overperforming lately. At least advisory level Any event with south winds near the coast this time of year is a no-go for snow prospects. Inland where the wind isn’t directly off the water might have a chance. Steep lapse rates like Bluewave showed are conducive for strong wind gusts so maybe we can get some decent squalls with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Have to figure most of this doesn't accumulate with temps in the mid 30s I think city west it could. East probably no as the SW flow has enough component off the water to warm the BL, the 3K NAM shows that well with snow in western queens but once you get east of there its rain. Looks like most areas will be sitting around 38/26-28 or so at the time so its close. We also are depending on that little area of energy generating that area of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 22 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Have to figure most of this doesn't accumulate with temps in the mid 30s HRRR says you have to go well to the NW to see any accumulation. RGEM doesn't give our area anything as well. I would lean towards those models instead of the crazy NAM models, but of course you never know for sure. Still something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: HRRR says you have to go well to the NW to see any accumulation. RGEM doesn't give our area anything as well. I would lean towards those models instead of the crazy NAM models, but of course you never know for sure. Still something to keep an eye on. Temps are just too warm ahead of the front near the coast. We'll need to get a squall Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Cold period (so far) EWR: Dec 1: 39 / 24 (-10) Dec 2: 42 / 25 (-8) NYC: DEC 1: 38 / 27 (-10) DEC 2: 39 / 29 (-9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 287 gang is ready at the homestead Dearest vegan_edible —The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call.I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 5 minutes ago, North and West said: Dearest vegan_edible — The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call. I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned. . best reply award 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 18 minutes ago, North and West said: Dearest vegan_edible — The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call. I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned. . Battleground moved up to i84 with cc :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Battleground moved up to i84 with cc :-)I-84? That’s like Hadrian’s Wall.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 34 minutes ago, North and West said: . Not sure why I got a couple weenies for that one, lol. Tuesday looks like at least mid 50s here. They'll see how warm it gets early next week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: best reply award No one beat Don Draper from the NYCWEATHER board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. Good. If it won’t snow, useless cold (which isn’t even that cold) is just that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 2 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Early next week continues to look warmer and warmer. Well up into the 50s. I'll be looking forward to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 hour ago, North and West said: Dearest vegan_edible — The battleground of weather fronts has called for my glorious return. I’m thrilled to say, I shall heed that call. I have reenlisted in my interest for the midweek clipper. May the snow fall upon the bosom of this land where my hearth and home intersects with the interstate of which you mentioned. . Well said…… For the inner city coastal plain, it’s never easy. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Earthlight about to call It Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Earthlight about to call It But Bamwx said... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Earthlight about to call It Winter over on December 3 is better than other years, so we have that going for us. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: But Bamwx said... Bam has been solid up until this winter. I’m not sure why they’re holding on to this cold pattern locking in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Earthlight about to call It One thing I’ll say is that we truly don’t know. We just have trends and favorability one way or another, each and every year. Obvious disclaimer is that I have no background or idea in what I’m talking about, but if someone can write off a season or something a month or two from now, then well God bless them. It’s the same old song every year.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Bam has been solid up until this winter. I’m not sure why they’re holding on to this cold pattern locking in From 13-14 to 11-12 in 2 days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 27 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Earthlight about to call It This has been the repeating theme over the last 9 winters. Longer range models underestimate the forcing in the MJO 4-7 regions. So they start out too cold for our area and then shift warmer the closer we get to the forecast period. New run stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent Old run was underestimating the forcing there 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 I would expect a few fast-moving squalls of hail and then snow after frontal passage Thursday, temps peaking at 45F before front passes, and a fast drop to 30F by evening. Winds gusting to 45 mph. A milder spell Sunday to midweek with a peak temp near 60F then a week or so close to mid-Dec normals in 40s. Signs of a colder reload near end of GFS 12z. Overall the month could hang on to a negative departure if there is in fact a later reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: This has been the repeating theme over the last 9 winters. Longer range models underestimate the forcing in the MJO 4-7 regions. So they start out too cold for our area and then shift warmer the closer we get to the forecast period. New run stronger forcing near the Maritime Continent Old run was underestimating the forcing there Until the water cools down significantly in the W PAC it’s hard to see how we get a sustained cold period where we can generate storms with good tracks for snow. It supercharges the Pacific jet and promotes the SE ridge. It’s good for the same people it’s always been good for from the NW to NNE. Hopefully which doesn’t mean much-it’ll be better than the last 2 winters but we’ll have to bank on making the most of the favorable windows we do get which looks like this one will get wasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Until the water cools down significantly in the W PAC it’s hard to see how we get a sustained cold period where we can generate storms with good tracks for snow. It supercharges the Pacific jet and promotes the SE ridge. It’s good for the same people it’s always been good for from the NW to NNE. Hopefully which doesn’t mean much-it’ll be better than the last 2 winters but we’ll have to bank on making the most of the favorable windows we do get which looks like this one will get wasted. In December 2010 MJO was in 4,5,6 and it was a cold snowy month..It was supposed to be warm this week it's not..Really stop looking at these 2 to 3 week long range forecasts..they are usually wrong, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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