NEG NAO Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Just now, Brian5671 said: Similar to last year where we ended up with a couple of 7-8 day periods of cold. This one is going to end up dry unfortunately. the month of December is going to end up dry ? Today is only December 2nd ???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Just now, NEG NAO said: the month of December is going to end up dry ? Today is only December 2nd ???? No, this 7-8 day period of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: No, this 7-8 day period of cold. ok thanks for verifying that statement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 isn’t it supposed to snow on Wednesday night? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 isn’t it supposed to snow on Wednesday night?Never going to snow again ever. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: GFS and CMC 850 Anomaly completely different at Day 10 - can't trust any solution past Day 5 GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits The 12z EPS was not as wildly bad as the 00Z was. I find it funny the EPS/GEFS basically switched places the last 2-3 days beyond day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: isn’t it supposed to snow on Wednesday night? Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Flurries in Jersey City. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 First flakes in se Bergen County! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Few mood flakes were falling while I was hanging Christmas lights on the deck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Thursday looks like a potentially impressive wind and snow squall day. Near record surface to 700mb lapse rates for early December. Could see some gusts over 50mph with scattered snow squalls. The record warm lakes are really going to modify the air mass below 850mb. This is one of the larger temperature spreads between 850 mb and the surface we have see in early December. So the wind chills will be more impressive than the actual temperatures. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 A cold air mass continues to cover the region. A few locations saw some flurries this afternoon into this evening. The most recent guidance is suggesting that even as the first 10 days of December will be unseasonably cold, the cold won't be as significant as on the earlier guidance. Nevertheless, on account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow remains likely. The pattern will likely be a fairly quiet one. As a result, the Washington, DC to New York City area likely won't see any appreciable snowfall during the first two weeks of December. However, a clipper system could bring a period of light snow or flurries to parts of the region late Wednesday into Thursday. A snow squall is possible in parts of the area as the cold air rushes back into the region behind the clipper. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +14.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.667 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Nam is better for the city with the clipper 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Records: Highs: EWR: 66 (1998) NYC: 66 (1970) LGA: 66 (1970) JFK: 62 (1998) Lows: EWR: 16 (1946) NYC: 11 (1875) LGA: 17 (1976) JFK: 17 (1989) Historical: 1896 - An early season snow and ice storm struck the southeastern U.S. It produced 11 inches of snow at Charlotte NC, and six inches at Atlanta GA. (David Ludlum) 1925 - A late season hurricane caused extensive damage across the Florida peninsula, then moved off the Georgia coast crossing Cape Hatteras as a tropical storm. The storm produced whole gales along the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England coast. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI, and reached 64 mph at Atlantic City NJ. (David Ludlum) 1950 - A late season tornado killed four persons in Madison County and Bond County, east of St Louis MO. Three tornadoes touched down in Illinois that afternoon, compared to just half a dozen tornadoes in the month of December in 115 years of records up until that time. Thunderstorms also produced hail which caused more than four million dollars damage in the St Louis area, it was the most damaging hailstorm of record for Missouri. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1968: The "Sacramento," a 250-foot fishing barge and former ferry between San Francisco and Oakland, succumb to a winter storm off Redondo Beach. 1970 - A tornado, 400 yards in width, touched down about one mile below the summit of Timpanogos Divide. Trees up to 18 inches in diameter were snapped, and some of the 38 inch snow cover was carried 1000 feet above the ground as the tornado traveled one mile. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - A tornado destroyed a home four miles south of Eastwood MO. The owners were not injured in that tornado, but ironically one was killed Christmas Eve when another tornado hit the replacement mobile home on the same site. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A powerful storm over the Gulf of Alaska continued to produced high winds and heavy rain along the northern and central Pacific coast. Winds gusted to 80 mph south of Port Orford OR, Stevens Pass WA was blanketed with sixteen inches of snow, and Blue Canyon CA was soaked with 1.63 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced ten inches of snow at Union City, PA. Gale force winds gusted to 55 mph at Buffalo NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 20 inches at Ironwood. Heavy snow and high winds caused 150 auto accidents in Michigan, resulting in sixteen deaths and 22 injuries. Strong northwesterly winds gusted to 73 mph at Johnstown PA, and Lowville PA received 20 inches of snow in 36 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 28 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 66 (1998) NYC: 66 (1970) LGA: 66 (1970) JFK: 62 (1998) Lows: EWR: 16 (1946) NYC: 11 (1875) LGA: 17 (1976) JFK: 17 (1989) Historical: 1896 - An early season snow and ice storm struck the southeastern U.S. It produced 11 inches of snow at Charlotte NC, and six inches at Atlanta GA. (David Ludlum) 1925 - A late season hurricane caused extensive damage across the Florida peninsula, then moved off the Georgia coast crossing Cape Hatteras as a tropical storm. The storm produced whole gales along the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England coast. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Block Island RI, and reached 64 mph at Atlantic City NJ. (David Ludlum) 1950 - A late season tornado killed four persons in Madison County and Bond County, east of St Louis MO. Three tornadoes touched down in Illinois that afternoon, compared to just half a dozen tornadoes in the month of December in 115 years of records up until that time. Thunderstorms also produced hail which caused more than four million dollars damage in the St Louis area, it was the most damaging hailstorm of record for Missouri. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1968: The "Sacramento," a 250-foot fishing barge and former ferry between San Francisco and Oakland, succumb to a winter storm off Redondo Beach. 1970 - A tornado, 400 yards in width, touched down about one mile below the summit of Timpanogos Divide. Trees up to 18 inches in diameter were snapped, and some of the 38 inch snow cover was carried 1000 feet above the ground as the tornado traveled one mile. (The Weather Channel) 1982 - A tornado destroyed a home four miles south of Eastwood MO. The owners were not injured in that tornado, but ironically one was killed Christmas Eve when another tornado hit the replacement mobile home on the same site. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A powerful storm over the Gulf of Alaska continued to produced high winds and heavy rain along the northern and central Pacific coast. Winds gusted to 80 mph south of Port Orford OR, Stevens Pass WA was blanketed with sixteen inches of snow, and Blue Canyon CA was soaked with 1.63 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced ten inches of snow at Union City, PA. Gale force winds gusted to 55 mph at Buffalo NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Squalls produced heavy snow in the Great Lakes Region. Totals in Upper Michigan ranged up to 20 inches at Ironwood. Heavy snow and high winds caused 150 auto accidents in Michigan, resulting in sixteen deaths and 22 injuries. Strong northwesterly winds gusted to 73 mph at Johnstown PA, and Lowville PA received 20 inches of snow in 36 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) The frigid and stormy December of 1989 was getting underway....unfortunately for this area the storminess for the most part missed us to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Both the GFS and NAM look good for a C-1" of snow Wed night through Thurs. morning. Maybe 2" N&W for a few lucky spots that get some squalls on Thurs. the CMC, ICON, and 18z ECM don't show much snow for our area. It looks like at least two periods of precipitation. An initial burst with intense frontogenesis Wed night and then possible squalls early Thurs. The GFS and especially NAM are surprisingly wet in CT. If the wetter models are right and some of that works back into SENY and NENJ, it could be a fun night. Temperatures start chilly and get very cold aloft (i.e., steep lapse rates). But I won't really believe the snow threat until the ECM comes on board. Either way, the hills of interior CT and MA and esp. southern VT should get a few to several inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Nice snow flurry passing through here right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Flurries by JFK airport too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Flurries out as I commute to Manhattan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Flurries this morning in Brooklyn First flakes! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 First flakes here this morning 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: First flakes here this morning 30 I saw some virga... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 35 / 24 off a low of 27. A bit warmer today, next front with some snow showers / squalls Wed night into Thu, colder Thu - Sun. Warmer Mon - next week, but likely wetter with ridge pushing into the EC and trough into the Rockies/Plains and storms cutting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A cold air mass continues to cover the region. A few locations saw some flurries this afternoon into this evening. The most recent guidance is suggesting that even as the first 10 days of December will be unseasonably cold, the cold won't be as significant as on the earlier guidance. Nevertheless, on account of successive waves of cold, the first two weeks of December will likely feature mainly below normal temperatures. The long-range guidance remains in good agreement for a cold first half of December. Significant lake effect snow remains likely. The pattern will likely be a fairly quiet one. As a result, the Washington, DC to New York City area likely won't see any appreciable snowfall during the first two weeks of December. However, a clipper system could bring a period of light snow or flurries to parts of the region late Wednesday into Thursday. A snow squall is possible in parts of the area as the cold air rushes back into the region behind the clipper. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer to much warmer than normal outcome is favored by the November run of the ECMWF for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around November 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions may still evolve into a La Niña event during the winter. Uncertainty as to whether a La Niña will actually develop continues to increase. Currently, 47% of dynamical models and 22% of the statistical models forecast the development of a La Niña. The SOI was +14.01 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.667 today. Scattered lake effect snow showers and flurries continue downwind of the Great Lakes. Rochester had its latest first trace of snowfall (December 1) and matched its second latest first accumulating snowfall on record (December 2) on record at that location. The record for latest accumulating snowfall is December 10, 1948. Also, the streak of 240 days without measurable snowfall is the third longest stretch on record behind 1952 (260) and 1931 (254). 1st November of record without at least a trace of snowfall Latest 1st accumulating snowfalls on record 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 We should all see more flakes Thursday as the Clipper passes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Records: Highs: EWR: 70 (1998) one of 9 70 or higher readings for the month of december NYC: 69 (1998) LGA: 69 (1998) JFK: 6 (2009) Lows: EWR: 9 (1976) NYC: 9 (1976) LGA: 11 (1976) JFK: 11 (1976) Historical: 1838:Cleveland Abbe, an American meteorologist and advocate of time zones, was born on this day. He was trained as an astronomer and appointed the director of the Cincinnati Observatory in 1868. He eventually turned to meteorology and inaugurated a public weather service that served as a model for today's National Weather Service. 1856 - A severe blizzard began to rage across Iowa and Kansas. It produced as much as 16 inches of snow in Iowa. (David Ludlum) 1926 - Yuma, AZ, was soaked with 1.10 inch of rain, and by the 10th of the month had received 4.43 inches, making it the wettest December of record. The average annual rainfall for Yuma is 3.38 inches. (3rd-10th) (The Weather Channel) 1983 - Birmingham, AL, was drenched with 9.22 inches of rain in 24 hours. The rains caused severe flash flooding which literally submerged traffic. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Stormy weather in the northwestern U.S. finally began to abate, but not before Gold Beach OR was drenched with 7.94 inches of rain in 24 hours. Low pressure spread snow from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Central Appalachians. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Gale force winds ushered cold air into the northeastern U.S., and produced snow squalls in the Lower Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 48 mph at Buffalo NY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Heavy snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in northern New England. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 31 inches, at Limestone. Presque Isle ME reported a record 30 inches of snow in 24 hours, along with wind gusts to 46 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Winter of 76 had the shorter precursor record cold late Nov / early Dec as seen with todays NYC/NJ record lows. In what was an appetizer for the frigid Late Dec - Jan/Feb 77. bump of a great thread Walt made on that frigid winter : On 2/17/2020 at 8:24 AM, wdrag said: I've posted this not to defend against other winters for NYC or elsewhere, but to reshare, what in my lifetime was a wonderful winter of frequent snows and persistent cold. I'd like to experience this again in my lifetime (like Red Sox and Cubs fans were for the previously elusive World Series). Some LCD material I was able to obtain for free on-line. This below us for Central Park. If you look closely it was persistently cold with fairly frequent small snows from late Dec 76-early Feb 77. This was even more impressive for the Boston area (couldn't easily find the Boston LCD's for Dec-76,Jan-Feb77) with frequent clippers redeveloping south of LI, as i recall. Wikipedia has a nice summary of the pattern and I'm sure some herein can post the overall 500 mb pattern. I am curious as to the MJO phases? I think the NAO was generally negative, PNA positive. It was a dream that some of us can recall and probably thought should be the norm. Maybe this occurs within 25 years, again? 823A/17 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We should all see more flakes Thursday as the Clipper passes through. Have to figure most of this doesn't accumulate with temps in the mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Have to figure most of this doesn't accumulate with temps in the mid 30s night outside city should be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: night outside city should be good 287 gang is ready at the homestead 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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