SnoSki14 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch I would put money on a strong torch period. Models getting stronger with the eastern ridging. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I would put money on a strong torch period. Models getting stronger with the eastern ridging. Never doubt the MJO It's traveling through the warm phases. Earlier predictions had it going into the COD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 I still think this winter will turn out to be a nice win especially if the enso stays neutral. Have to see if a weak la Nina takes over though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 After the briefly cooler start to December, the models are shifting back to warmer winter pattern which has been in place since 15-16. We can see the familiar Aleutian Ridge and -PNA trough in the West. This leads to a warmer Southeast Ridge pattern for us by mid to late December. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: After the briefly cooler start to December, the models are shifting back to warmer winter pattern which has been in place since 15-16. We can see the familiar Aleutian Ridge and -PNA trough in the West. This leads to a warmer Southeast Ridge pattern for us by mid to late December. Chris, IF the last few CFS ensemble runs were to verify pretty well, we’d be looking at a strong +AAM (El Ninoish) late in Dec and early in Jan. If so, any mid Dec SE ridge dominance could be shortlived: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Never doubt the MJO It's traveling through the warm phases. Earlier predictions had it going into the COD . Edit: Never doubt the warmth. If the models show average, add +1-+2, if they show warmth add +3-+5. If they show frigid, moderate towards just below normal. We have seen this time and time again. The patterns of sustaining cold are over on a planet with more and more thermal energy. As I tell my ecology classes, all you have to do is look around. Literally look around at all of our energy use. Hardly any of it was around 100 years ago, to think this wouldn’t have an effect is pure stupidity. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Chris, IF the last few CFS ensemble runs were to verify pretty well, we’d be looking at a strong +AAM (El Ninoish) late in Dec and early in Jan. If so, any mid Dec SE ridge dominance could be shortlived: Do you have the EPS and GEFS AAM forecasts? The CFS hasn’t been very reliable. If we could indeed see another +AAM influenced interval then maybe we can see alternating patterns this winter at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Do you have the EPS and GEFS AAM forecasts? The CFS hasn’t been very reliable. If we could indeed see another +AAM influenced interval then maybe we can see alternating patterns this winter at times. No I don’t and yes I don’t trust the unreliable CFS. After all it still has an unrealistic record cooling from Nov to Dec in Nino 3.4 that no other model had in Nov. However, even though it could turn on a dime, I’d still rather the CFS show this persistent strong +AAM than show a -AAM. So, we’ll see if it happens to be “onto” something as opposed to “on” something. I did notice that the last 3 runs of the extended GEFS break down the SE ridge late month *fwiw* suggesting it may dominate for no more than 1-2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: No I don’t and yes I don’t trust the unreliable CFS. After all it still has an unrealistic record cooling from Nov to Dec in Nino 3.4 that no other model had in Nov. However, even though it could turn on a dime, I’d still rather the CFS show this persistent strong +AAM than show a -AAM. So, we’ll see if it happens to be “onto” something as opposed to “on” something. All we know is that we were able to get a brief +AAM influenced period between the record warmth this fall and warmer pattern beginning to emerge next week. So maybe we can get a few more of these going forward after December. Our next modeling clue may have to wait until later December into early January. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 21 this morning Ensembles look awful for cold/snow after this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 21 this morning Ensembles look awful for cold/snow after this week Quite a big change from last week. Onto January . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Maybe some snow squalls can make it to the coast later this week with wind gusts over 50 mph due to the very steep low level lapse rates and tight gradient. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 22F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 29 / 16 off a coldest of the season so far, low of 18. Cold and dry the next 7 days, peak of the cold (coldest) Fri - Sun of this week and upcoming weekend. Warmer and perhaps wetter by the 12th and into mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 There is going to be a lag with the AAM. Once the mid-late December regime takes over, it will drop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 8 hours ago, psv88 said: 23 now. At least the bugs are dead. I don't know about that. I think you need a sustained "COLD" period to really do the job? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Human psychology is a helluva thing lol. Singular model runs sometimes over-detect trends and then sometimes over-correct. The cold will almost definitely relax for the second half of the month, but it’s a good sign that we are seeing some this early. Also FWIW, I like the PAC look much more than I have for the past two winters. I think the 13-14 comparison is probably overstated, but unlike the past few years, I think we might get a few periods this winter where the EPO cooperates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 21 this morning. Decently chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Westhampton down to 12! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: The long lasting cold pattern is now gone. Here comes the typical Christmas thaw. 2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Edit: Never doubt the warmth. If the models show average, add +1-+2, if they show warmth add +3-+5. If they show frigid, moderate towards just below normal. We have seen this time and time again. The patterns of sustaining cold are over on a planet with more and more thermal energy. As I tell my ecology classes, all you have to do is look around. Literally look around at all of our energy use. Hardly any of it was around 100 years ago, to think this wouldn’t have an effect is pure stupidity. 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Quite a big change from last week. Onto January . The only constant is change. You know you dive in too deep each and every year, as many do, right? It'll change again, only because it always does. Other nice point made here is the ecology point. It's chemistry. +1. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Quite a big change from last week. Onto January . Just plan on 1-2 weeks of snow chances this winter with anything more being a bonus. Expectations should be similar to last season. (Low) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 ECM says welcome to the worst December weather since 1988. Cold & dry, rain, Cold & dry, rain, rain, Cold & dry, rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: ECM says welcome to the worst December weather since 1988. Cold & dry, rain, Cold & dry, rain, rain, Cold & dry, rain... Happens in many Decembers it seems. 18 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 We'll see how Wed night goes. And obviously the month just started. But I can see a way that December ends up less snowy than November for a lot of the NW suburbs. Long range modeling suddenly looks shockingly bad for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 18 minutes ago, eduggs said: We'll see how Wed night goes. And obviously the month just started. But I can see a way that December ends up less snowy than November for a lot of the NW suburbs. Long range modeling suddenly looks shockingly bad for snow. The low and all the associated good forcing and lifting is going to be well north of here Wed night. We’re going to be lucky to get more than a dusting/coating out of that and looking at the soundings, there may be virga issues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 The only Blizzard that I will see anytime soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The only Blizzard that I will see anytime soon. The fact that it is 50% off and on clearance leads me to believe that could leave you disappointed as well. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 The only Blizzard that I will see anytime soon.It’s December 2nd. Just breathe.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 GFS and CMC 850 Anomaly completely different at Day 10 - can't trust any solution past Day 5 GFS Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits CMC Model – 850mb Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 13 hours ago, winterwx21 said: A cold first half of December has turned into just a cold first week of December. Next week looks fairly mild now. We do still have hope of seeing flakes Wednesday night. 0z Euro actually gives us a decent little burst of snow, but it will be tough to accumulate near the coast with temps above freezing. It's pretty much all we have right now, so we root to see a little something Wednesday night. Similar to last year where we ended up with a couple of 7-8 day periods of cold. This one is going to end up dry unfortunately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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