bluewave Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 26 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Outside of the first of Dec - this looks forecast similar to 2010 through the 10th or so temp-wise. The main difference was that 2010 stayed cold the whole month with no moderation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The main difference was that 2010 stayed cold the whole month with no moderation. Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month Big warmup? Looks like a brief milder pattern before right back into winter. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 the mid month warmth could be historic unlike this current below normal air which is not even close. Evidence of a very strong polar vortex forming and CONUS blowtorch 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 24 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month My guess is that the first week to 10 days of December may have the coldest departures we see this month. The extended EPS is already backing off the cold it was showing for the 9th through 16th. This has been typical December local climatology with the usual warm up as we approach the solstice and Christmas. New run closer to average December 9th through 16th Old run was colder Longer term December temperature trends cooler to start and warming up as we approach the solstice and holidays 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 31 minutes ago, qg_omega said: the mid month warmth could be historic unlike this current below normal air which is not even close. Evidence of a very strong polar vortex forming and CONUS blowtorch show evidence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: The main difference was that 2010 stayed cold the whole month with no moderation. December 1995 December 2000 and December 2010 - all below 33 avg temp and all three seasons La Nina's of various strengths and all 3 had over 50 inches seasonal snowfall in NYC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Just now, NEG NAO said: December 1995 December 2000 and December 2010 - all below 33 avg temp and all three seasons La Nina's of various strengths and all 3 had over 50 inches seasonal snowfall in NYC..... Yeah, we don’t get Decembers that cold anymore regardless of La Niña, neutral, or El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, we don’t get Decembers that cold anymore regardless of La Niña, neutral, or El Niño. give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf Very unlikely that we see a December this year anywhere near 32° in NYC given the record warmth across North America and the globe this fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 12z GFS is pretty interesting around the 10th. That would probably work. But it's a long way off and too much run-to-run variability to have any confidence. The threat for the 8th keeps decreasing in likelihood. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf The warming trend is pretty clear on that chart though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Some snow to long duration frozen mix. Nice trof axis and pretty cold surface. But unlikely outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Some snow to long duration frozen mix. Nice trof axis and pretty cold surface. But unlikely outcome. We hope It has a clue because the eps wants nothing to do with it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We hope It has a clue because the eps wants nothing to do with it And cmc is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 cold breezy and extremely dry got to be the lowest dewpoint we had since last winter..i was wondering after a few miles walk why i did not sweat one drop.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 19 minutes ago, Snowshack said: The warming trend is pretty clear on that chart though. True but aren't all the measurements in Central Park NYC ? I would like to see a chart from outside the "Heat Island" going back to the beginning of recorded measurement time. Also several stations. different directions of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: And cmc is ugly Most likely outcome IMO. Pray for a snow squall Wed night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 23 minutes ago, eduggs said: Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Some snow to long duration frozen mix. Nice trof axis and pretty cold surface. But unlikely outcome. models have been all over the place run to run disagreeing with themselves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 31 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very unlikely that we see a December this year anywhere near 32° in NYC given the record warmth across North America and the globe this fall. agree and not on the "Heat Island" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: agree and not on the "Heat Island" The heat island doesn’t have anything to do with it since it’s air mass related and not UHI related. The heat island effect has been constant in NYC for a long time. The outlying areas haven’t any any similarly cold Decembers since 2010 either. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: the mid month warmth could be historic unlike this current below normal air which is not even close. Evidence of a very strong polar vortex forming and CONUS blowtorch Where do you see that?..I see a little bit above normal after the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Back during winter 2022-2023, I posted some information concerning how a warming climate might affect seasonal snowfall in New York City. Based on the experience of cities south of New York City, by the mid-2030s, seasonal snowfall (30-season average) could reach or fall below 20" per season. It is still too soon to be sure whether the two most recent relatively snowless winters are part of the early stages of a transition to a less snowy future. Even in a less snowy future, periodic snowy winters remain likely. Looking further into the matter, it seems that some locations, including Philadelphia and Washington, DC have seen a temporary increase in seasonal snowfall as the mean winter temperature approached and then exceeded 36.0°. That outcome is probably the result of an increase in moisture exceeding the consequences of a warming climate where bigger snowstorms skew seasonal averages. A larger initial secondary increase in snowfall is likely farther north than Washington, DC or Philadelphia, as New York City (and also Boston) are closer to sources of sufficiently cold air. Eventually, the warmth more than offset the gains resulting from increased moisture. Below are the current charts for both New York City and Washington, DC: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 10 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Where do you see that?..I see a little bit above normal after the 15th Though persistence is the least scientific forecasting tool, it would be difficult to doubt any extended range outlook for warmer than normal temperatures, given the recent history... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 hours ago, bluewave said: My guess is that the first week to 10 days of December may have the coldest departures we see this month. The extended EPS is already backing off the cold it was showing for the 9th through 16th. This has been typical December local climatology with the usual warm up as we approach the solstice and Christmas. New run closer to average December 9th through 16th Old run was colder Longer term December temperature trends cooler to start and warming up as we approach the solstice and holidays The general holiday/Christmas warmup has been very noticeable and quite regular, but I'm not aware of any reason why that is more than an unlikely coincidence. Is there any physical evidence that this should be considered a norm for the second half of December? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 28 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Where do you see that?..I see a little bit above normal after the 15th In his brain 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uniblab Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month The usual big Christmas heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 minutes ago, Uniblab said: The usual big Christmas heat wave. not 2 years ago - Teens all day on Christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: not 2 years ago - Teens all day on Christmas The only cold weather all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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