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December 2024


TriPol
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26 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Outside of the first of Dec - this looks forecast similar to 2010 through the 10th or so temp-wise.

The main difference was that 2010 stayed cold the whole month with no moderation.

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:
The main difference was that 2010 stayed cold the whole month with no moderation.


Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month

 

 

 

 

Big warmup? Looks like a brief milder pattern before right back into winter.

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24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


Exactly and I see absolutely no comparison whatsoever to December, 2010. That was driven by severe AO/NAO blocking and a poleward Aleutian ridge. We are going to see a big moderation mid-month

 

 

 

 

My guess is that the first week to 10 days of December may have the coldest departures we see this month. The extended EPS is already backing off the cold it was showing for the 9th through 16th. This has been typical December local climatology with the usual warm up as we approach the solstice and Christmas. 
 

New run closer to average December 9th through 16th

IMG_2149.thumb.webp.c7f6d25d4abfd1a5b4153c0d7e590532.webp
 

Old run was colder

 

IMG_2148.thumb.webp.b5dfc2290d8463afa2048bd8f6746630.webp


Longer term December temperature trends cooler to start and warming up as we approach the solstice and holidays

IMG_2150.thumb.jpeg.d4adc23ac608c55d17c2937a4d541e85.jpeg
IMG_2151.thumb.jpeg.54e6b7cf87ee0114b2b080ba715f687a.jpeg

IMG_2152.thumb.jpeg.f3ae935d096a4a1dc721f7e48fb87f5a.jpeg


IMG_2154.thumb.jpeg.14432a6fae912884142ad70703ce7ba5.jpeg

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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main difference was that 2010 stayed cold the whole month with no moderation.

December 1995 December 2000 and December 2010 - all below 33 avg temp and all three seasons La Nina's of various strengths and all 3 had over 50 inches seasonal snowfall in NYC.....

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Just now, NEG NAO said:

December 1995 December 2000 and December 2010 - all below 33 avg temp and all three seasons La Nina's of various strengths and all 3 had over 50 inches seasonal snowfall in NYC.....

Yeah, we don’t get Decembers that cold anymore regardless of La Niña, neutral, or El Niño.

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we don’t get Decembers that cold anymore regardless of La Niña, neutral, or El Niño.

give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf

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5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf

Very unlikely that we see a December this year anywhere near 32° in NYC given the record warmth across North America and the globe this fall.

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12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

give it time IMO........looking at the averages since the beginning they are all over the place in December and impossible to determine any specific trends there have been stretches of above normal in the past then returns to below normal monthlyannualtemp.pdf

The warming trend is pretty clear on that chart though.  

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6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Some snow to long duration frozen mix. Nice trof axis and pretty cold surface. But unlikely outcome.

We hope It has a clue because the eps wants nothing to do with it 

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19 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

The warming trend is pretty clear on that chart though.  

True but aren't all the measurements in Central Park NYC ? I would like to see a chart from outside the "Heat Island" going back to the beginning of recorded measurement time. Also several stations. different directions of NYC

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23 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Sign me up for the 12z GFS. Some snow to long duration frozen mix. Nice trof axis and pretty cold surface. But unlikely outcome.

models have been all over the place run to run disagreeing with themselves

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very unlikely that we see a December this year anywhere near 32° in NYC given the record warmth across North America and the globe this fall.

agree and not on the "Heat Island"

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7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agree and not on the "Heat Island"

The heat island doesn’t have anything to do with it since it’s air mass related and not UHI related. The heat island effect has been constant in NYC for a long time. The outlying areas haven’t any any similarly cold Decembers since 2010 either.

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

the mid month warmth could be historic unlike this current below normal air which is not even close.  Evidence of a very strong polar vortex forming and CONUS blowtorch

Where do you see that?..I see a little bit above normal after the 15th

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Back during winter 2022-2023, I posted some information concerning how a warming climate might affect seasonal snowfall in New York City. Based on the experience of cities south of New York City, by the mid-2030s, seasonal snowfall (30-season average) could reach or fall below 20" per season. It is still too soon to be sure whether the two most recent relatively snowless winters are part of the early stages of a transition to a less snowy future. Even in a less snowy future, periodic snowy winters remain likely.

Looking further into the matter, it seems that some locations, including Philadelphia and Washington, DC have seen a temporary increase in seasonal snowfall as the mean winter temperature approached and then exceeded 36.0°. That outcome is probably the result of an increase in moisture exceeding the consequences of a warming climate where bigger snowstorms skew seasonal averages. A larger initial secondary increase in snowfall is likely farther north than Washington, DC or Philadelphia, as New York City (and also Boston) are closer to sources of sufficiently cold air. Eventually, the warmth more than offset the gains resulting from increased moisture.

Below are the current charts for both New York City and Washington, DC:

image.png.60373c465494d4314b476cb60e6355e3.png

image.png.b1d6d0b16bb35565d1b8b928e341c113.png

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10 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Where do you see that?..I see a little bit above normal after the 15th

Though persistence is the least scientific forecasting tool, it would be difficult to doubt any extended range outlook for warmer than normal temperatures, given the recent history...

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the first week to 10 days of December may have the coldest departures we see this month. The extended EPS is already backing off the cold it was showing for the 9th through 16th. This has been typical December local climatology with the usual warm up as we approach the solstice and Christmas. 
 

New run closer to average December 9th through 16th

IMG_2149.thumb.webp.c7f6d25d4abfd1a5b4153c0d7e590532.webp
 

Old run was colder

 

IMG_2148.thumb.webp.b5dfc2290d8463afa2048bd8f6746630.webp


Longer term December temperature trends cooler to start and warming up as we approach the solstice and holidays

IMG_2150.thumb.jpeg.d4adc23ac608c55d17c2937a4d541e85.jpeg
IMG_2151.thumb.jpeg.54e6b7cf87ee0114b2b080ba715f687a.jpeg

IMG_2152.thumb.jpeg.f3ae935d096a4a1dc721f7e48fb87f5a.jpeg


IMG_2154.thumb.jpeg.14432a6fae912884142ad70703ce7ba5.jpeg

The general holiday/Christmas warmup has been very noticeable and quite regular, but I'm not aware of any reason why that is more than an unlikely coincidence.  Is there any physical evidence that this should be considered a norm for the second half of December?

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