MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Looking like a relaxtion period mid December. Hopefully it doesn't last too long. Have to see where the MJO ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 What does this mean in simpleton speak?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 26 minutes ago, North and West said: What does this mean in simpleton speak? . we go warm once the pacific breaks down (about mid month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 we go warm once the pacific breaks down (about mid month)Sooooo, basically…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: we go warm once the pacific breaks down (about mid month) Milder not warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 10 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern Been watching that southern feature. I agree. This could be a legit THREAT. Potential phasing? Always tricky to get that southwest energy kicked out but interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 12 minutes ago, MANDA said: Been watching that southern feature. I agree. This could be a legit THREAT. Potential phasing? Always tricky to get that southwest energy kicked out but interesting to watch. Euro phases too much and it rains to Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro phases too much and it rains to Canada Interesting. Euro is usually too slow in kicking Southwest energy out. Not sure if that will still be true in the recently released model upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: Looking like a relaxtion period mid December. Hopefully it doesn't last too long. Have to see where the MJO ends up I'm not getting my hopes up. January will be our best shot but not expecting much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not getting my hopes up. January will be our best shot but not expecting much I guess you aren't watching next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro phases too much and it rains to Canada Amped bias? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, MANDA said: Interesting. Euro is usually too slow in kicking Southwest energy out. Not sure if that will still be true in the recently released model upgrade. Twitter is saying it has that bias and an amped bias because it doesn’t show what they want…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Twitter is saying it has that bias and an amped bias because it doesn’t show what they want…. Don't be stupid. It's a known bias for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 12z GFS and CMC not very good. Still barely trackable threats. The lead up to the elevation event a week ago that delivered accumulations to southern Westchester was far more interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 We need more STJ involvement. Or we need a ridge axis further west with the s/w for the 8th diving further southwest. As is, the modeling is not close. Any cyclogenesis would happen too late outside DE Maine and the Maritimes. If the STJ links with the follow up wave around the 10th, chances increase for rain. Low expectations are advised for now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: We need more STJ involvement. Or we need a ridge axis further west with the s/w for the 8th diving further southwest. As is, the modeling is not close. Any cyclogenesis would happen too late outside DE Maine and the Maritimes. If the STJ links with the follow up wave around the 10th, chances increase for rain. Low expectations are advised for now. I'm really just hoping for some minor accumulations..less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 cold, cut, cold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm really just hoping for some minor accumulations..less than an inch Me too. I think north of I-287/I-80 has a 50-50 shot at 1". South of there will be tough. We're going to need some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'm really just hoping for some minor accumulations..less than an inch Same here. Right now it's looking most likely that it's just going to be a very light event if we get anything next week. Next Saturday is way out there, but before then it still appears that we have a shot at seeing a little something late Wednesday. Last night's Euro and today's CMC saying we could get some light snow late Wednesday. Still very questionable with the possibility of it going too far north, but it's possible we could get a coating out of it. That would be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Same here. Right now it's looking most likely that it's just going to be a very light event if we get anything next week. Next Saturday is way out there, but before then it still appears that we have a shot at seeing a little something late Wednesday. Last night's Euro and today's CMC saying we could get some light snow late Wednesday. Still very questionable with the possibility of it going too far north, but it's possible we could get a coating out of it. That would be nice to see. Yeah and further out we could see something. Gfs has snow quickly changing to rain around the 10th. At least it may be active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 I'm not getting my hopes up. January will be our best shot but not expecting much Solid winter over on Thanksgiving weekend. I’m here for sun angles.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 21 minutes ago, forkyfork said: cold, cut, cold 1980s and early 1990s lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 36 minutes ago, forkyfork said: cold, cut, cold Mind reader? Not agreeing with many on a good pattern ahead ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 36 minutes ago, forkyfork said: cold, cut, cold 80s… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Mind reader? Not agreeing with many on a good pattern ahead ? Can still get unlucky with cutters in between cold shots. Or snow to rain events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Euro still giving us some light snow late Wednesday on the 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Can still get unlucky with cutters in between cold shots. Or snow to rain events the way we get lots of snow without strong greenland blocking is 13/14 and despite all the snow that winter nyc couldn't get a classic ku from a benchmark storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: the way we get lots of snow without strong greenland blocking is 13/14 and despite all the snow that winter nyc couldn't get a classic ku from a benchmark storm That's the analog from many people on other forums and social media Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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