TriPol Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Some of the coldest air of the season will be pouring into the Northeast and NYC this weekend and next week. Can it snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 The next 10 days looks to favor New England, and Maine in particular if ensembles are to be believed. Positive 500mb anomalies make it as far east as MN, which creates a steep NW flow angle that doesn't usually deliver us much precipitation. Maybe something changes moving forward. It wouldn't take too much to get some snow showers at least. Web cams from ALB to Glens Falls look nice today. But it always seems like it's snowing somewhere else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 27 minutes ago, eduggs said: The next 10 days looks to favor New England, and Maine in particular if ensembles are to be believed. Positive 500mb anomalies make it as far east as MN, which creates a steep NW flow angle that doesn't usually deliver us much precipitation. Maybe something changes moving forward. It wouldn't take too much to get some snow showers at least. Web cams from ALB to Glens Falls look nice today. But it always seems like it's snowing somewhere else. Clippers and then maybe a coastal before it gets warmer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 The GEFS keeps thinking we are in a La Nina or that the MJO is running the show. Its been attempting to break the pattern or retrograde that ridge west but keeps kicking the can. It also has now moved towards the the GEPS/EPS from the 5th-9th whereas 3-5 days ago it was quite mild because it had the ridge too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Clippers and then maybe a coastal before it gets warmer I wouldn't count on a clipper giving anything measurable in this area. When was the last time a clipper dumped an inch or 2 in NYC Metro. I honestly can't remember. Looks to me the next 10 days is going to be cold but with little precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Yep. Cool and dry. Good for the ski resorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GEFS keeps thinking we are in a La Nina or that the MJO is running the show. Its been attempting to break the pattern or retrograde that ridge west but keeps kicking the can. It also has now moved towards the the GEPS/EPS from the 5th-9th whereas 3-5 days ago it was quite mild because it had the ridge too far east. According to Bluewave the +AAM is waning so allowing Mjo to influence the pattern as it enters into Maritime continent. It shows a temporary transient mild up on the 12th of december but gets cold again afterwards on the GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Nice clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Sort of to wrap up the rainfall Nov 20-28... attached, click for clarity. Sort of hard to believe the Drought Monitor didnt improve a bit in its Nov 27 posting. Maybe in the Thu Dec 5 (corrected date) post? I can't quibble with thoughts expressed this page regarding upcoming snow threats for the NYC subforum. I kind of think the LaNina pattern - storm track roughly OH Valley-New England is on course with the two storms between the 21st-28th of November giving us an idea. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 23 hours ago, MJO812 said: Clippers and then maybe a coastal before it gets warmer 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 13 minutes ago, wdrag said: Sort of to wrap up the rainfall Nov 20-28... attached, click for clarity. Sort of hard to believe the Drought Monitor didnt improve a bit in its Nov 27 posting. Maybe in the Thu Dec 4 post? I can't quibble with thoughts expressed this page regarding upcoming snow threats for the NYC subforum. I kind of think the LaNina pattern - storm track roughly OH Valley-New England is on course with the two storms between the 21st-28th of November giving us an idea. I also found the Drought Monitor odd this week as it was essentially the same as last week. I wondered if the holiday had anything to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Nothing on the horizon on gfs or cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nothing on the horizon on gfs or cmc give it time.........once the trough axis starts moving further west ( mid month) from right along the coast storms will develop further west rather then east of us......BUT timing and storm track is key and need that strong high up in southeast Canada... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nothing on the horizon on gfs or cmc This isn't true. Patience is key. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This isn't true. Patience is key. Nothing inside 10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Nothing inside 10 days Our next decent precipitation event will be between the 8th-11th. If these clippers all go north of the area they will be moisture starve with BL issues for any precipitation that does fall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Nothing inside 10 days We always see storms pop up as we get near. NAO is right. Give it time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 the setup around the 10th kinda reminds me of Jan 2022… same really tall W US ridge, elongated TPV and Atlantic ridge 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 It's always 10 days away the last couple years. Even in great patterns it just doesn't want to snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 13 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: It's always 10 days away the last couple years. Even in great patterns it just doesn't want to snow We haven't had a good pattern in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We haven't had a good pattern in years. It really wasn’t that long ago. Remember December, 2022? The “textbook, classic”, “OMG”, dream pattern for blockbuster KU’s up the coast? Some people were guaranteeing an arctic cold, crippling snow blitz and were making daily comparisons to January, 1996. “Buckle up, get sleep, it’s coming”. “This may be historic”. I remember that month very well 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: We haven't had a good pattern in years. we have had a few good ones. for some reason, people think that we’re going to get a MECS every time the pattern becomes favorable. not how it works 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: give it time.........once the trough axis starts moving further west ( mid month) from right along the coast storms will develop further west rather then east of us......BUT timing and storm track is key and need that strong high up in southeast Canada... Rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: This isn't true. Patience is key. Winter is too short for patience. We will only have a few windows of time where we can get snow locally. Treasure every snow shower. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 23 minutes ago, eduggs said: Winter is too short for patience. We will only have a few windows of time where we can get snow locally. Treasure every snow shower. I treasure every flurry 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 At least there's moisture (it does start with a little frozen) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: At least there's moisture (it does start with a little frozen) Don't sleep on the event before this one which was to our south. Ensembles show a decent signal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Don't sleep on the event before this one which was to our south. Ensembles show a decent signal Good mean this far out. This upcoming pattern has potential ( of course everything has to work out ) Laugh all you want at my post. It's a good pattern coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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