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Major Lake Effect Snowstorm: Nov 29-Dec 4th


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Around 20" on the ground and this is my point and click

Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 23. Southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow before 1pm, then snow showers likely after 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 31. Southwest wind 13 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow likely before 2am, then a chance of snow showers after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 6 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible
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Totals so far

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html
...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...New York...

...Allegany County...
3 WSW Centerville            8.0 in    0915 AM 11/30   Trained Spotter

...Cattaraugus County...
Cattaraugus                  34.5 in   0800 AM 12/01   CO-OP Observer

...Chautauqua County...
Cassadaga                    37.7 in   0600 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
Fredonia                     27.0 in   0700 AM 12/01   Cocorahs
Dunkirk                      26.5 in   0800 AM 12/01   CO-OP Observer

...Erie County...
4 NE Angola                  32.0 in   0739 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
Springville                  29.1 in   0800 AM 12/01   CO-OP Observer
1 SE Glenwood                21.5 in   0800 AM 12/01   Public
2 N Hamburg                  20.7 in   0800 AM 12/01   Cocorahs
2 WNW East Aurora            18.8 in   0847 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
2 NW Colden                  18.1 in   0745 AM 12/01   Cocorahs
Lackawanna                   18.0 in   0830 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
Orchard Park                 18.0 in   0700 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
East Aurora                  16.1 in   0800 AM 12/01   Cocorahs
2 N Marilla                  16.0 in   1120 PM 11/30   NWS Employee
1 WNW Alden                  15.8 in   0846 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
1 NNW Hamburg                15.8 in   0430 AM 12/01   Public
2 NW West Falls              12.5 in   0819 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
3 NNE Lackawanna             12.4 in   0800 AM 12/01   Cocorahs
2 SSE Williamsville          1.2 in    0700 AM 12/01   ASOS

...Genesee County...
3 WNW Alexander              4.0 in    0800 AM 12/01   Cocorahs
Batavia                      3.5 in    0800 AM 12/01   Cocorahs
2 E Stafford                 0.2 in    0814 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter

...Jefferson County...
4 NW Copenhagen              46.0 in   0804 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
4 SW Barnes Corners          46.0 in   0600 AM 12/01   Public
4 WSW West Carthage          41.0 in   0700 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
Watertown                    25.1 in   0742 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
1 S Calcium                  24.3 in   0600 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter
1 SSW Deferiet               22.5 in   0737 AM 12/01   Trained Spotter

...Lewis County...
Lowville                     24.0 in   0800 AM 12/01   CO-OP Observer

...Wyoming County...
4 W Warsaw                   19.8 in   0700 AM 12/01   CO-OP Observer
Silver Springs               12.9 in   0800 AM 12/01   CO-OP Observer
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..4-DAY SNOWFALL REPORTS...

Location                     Amount    Time/Date       Provider

...New York...

...Allegany County...
2 WSW Centerville            8.0 in    0915 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
West Almond 3.6 SW           6.1 in    0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Rushford                     6.0 in    0545 AM 12/02   COOP
Wellsville 2.4 ENE           5.0 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Alfred                       3.3 in    0700 AM 12/02   COOP

...Cattaraugus County...
1 N Perrysburg               53.7 in   1100 AM 12/02   CO-OP Observer
Cattaraugus 3W               40.9 in   0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Randolph 1.1 ENE             15.0 in   0830 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Franklinville 0.5 NNE        13.3 in   0815 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Ischua 0.4 SSE               11.9 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Allegany State Park          5.3 in    0800 AM 12/02   COOP

...Cayuga County...
Duck Lake                    2.0 in    0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Chautauqua County...
Cassadaga                    54.2 in   0100 PM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Dewittville 1.0 SSE          42.5 in   0600 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Fredonia 0.8 WNW             35.9 in   0500 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Dunkirk 1S                   32.0 in   0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Silver Creek 0.7 E           25.1 in   0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Kennedy 0.3 NE               11.5 in   0600 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Kennedy 2.6 SE               10.8 in   0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Falconer 0.3 WSW             9.2 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Bemus Point 2.6 WSW          7.0 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Erie County...
4 NE Angola                  36.2 in   0600 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Springville 5NE              34.6 in   0800 AM 12/02   COOP
Wales                        33.1 in   0700 AM 12/02   COOP
3 NE Holland                 32.5 in   0600 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
1 WNW Springville            29.4 in   0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Glenwood 1.0 SE              28.3 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Orchard Park                 27.6 in   1055 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Boston 2.5 NE                26.7 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Elma Center 1.8 SE           26.5 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Glenwood 1.5 SE              26.5 in   0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
2 WNW East Aurora            24.8 in   0100 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
West Seneca 2.5 E            24.0 in   0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Hamburg 2.0 N                23.2 in   0754 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
West Seneca 2.8 ENE          23.0 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Lake View 1NE                22.1 in   0800 AM 12/02   COOP
East Aurora 2.7 SSE          21.4 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Eden 1.4 SSE                 21.0 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
East Aurora 0.1 ENE          20.6 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
2 NW West Falls              20.5 in   0821 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Hamburg 0.4 WSW              19.3 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Lackawanna                   18.0 in   1015 PM 12/01   Trained Spotter
1 NW Alden                   17.6 in   0700 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Buffalo 3.7 SE               12.8 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Angola                       1.5 in    1101 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
1 SE Williamsville           1.2 in    0700 AM 12/02   Official NWS Obs
Clarence Center 0.2 ESE      0.2 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Clarence Center 0.9 N        0.1 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Tonawanda 3.1 NE              T in     0530 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Kenmore 0.3 ESE               T in     0640 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Snyder 0.6 SW                 T in     0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Cheektowaga 2.4 NW            T in     0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
East Amherst 1.3 WSW          T in     0759 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
East Amherst 1.2 WNW          T in     0845 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Genesee County...
Alden 2.5 SE                 23.2 in   0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
2 NNE Cowlesville            21.3 in   0800 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Alexander 4.4 ESE            10.0 in   0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Pembroke                     6.2 in    0532 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Alexander 2.7 WNW            5.6 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Batavia 3.4 WSW              4.0 in    0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Stafford 1.8 NE              1.1 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Le Roy 1E                    0.9 in    0730 AM 12/02   COOP
Le Roy 0.7 ESE                T in     0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Jefferson County...
4 SW Barnes Corners          65.5 in   0700 AM 12/02   Public
Fort Drum                    63.0 in   1100 AM 12/02   Public
5 SE Black River             52.8 in   0700 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
West Carthage 0.3 ENE        47.2 in   0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Adams                        45.0 in   0820 AM 12/02   Broadcast Media
Watertown                    37.5 in   0800 AM 12/02   COOP
Natural Bridge               30.0 in   1130 AM 12/02   Public
Watertown 0.9 SSW            28.4 in   0645 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
3 W Calcium                  26.0 in   1100 AM 12/02   Public
Depauville                   24.0 in   1125 AM 12/02   Public
Theresa                      21.0 in   1145 AM 12/02   Public
Chaumont                     10.5 in   1100 AM 12/02   Public

...Lewis County...
3 SW Copenhagen              65.9 in   1100 AM 12/02   Public
1 S Copenhagen               61.0 in   1100 AM 12/02   Public
1 NE New Bremen              46.0 in   0800 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Lowville                     40.0 in   1100 AM 12/02   Public
Harrisville                  40.0 in   1130 AM 12/02   Public
2 WSW Croghan                37.0 in   1130 AM 12/02   Public
Lowville                     35.0 in   0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Chases Lake                  17.8 in   0600 AM 12/02   COOP
Glenfield 4.1 NNE            17.4 in   1000 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Highmarket 2W                14.0 in   0600 AM 12/02   COOP
Constableville 1.2 NW        6.5 in    0500 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Brantingham                  6.0 in    1130 AM 12/02   Public

...Livingston County...
Dansville 3.6 WSW            1.1 in    0600 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Monroe County...
2 WNW Hilton                 1.7 in    0700 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Webster 3.0 W                0.5 in    0900 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Rochester 5.0 WNW            0.3 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
3 SE Gates-North Gates       0.2 in    0700 AM 12/02   Official NWS Obs
Rochester 5.7 W              0.1 in    0900 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Brockport                    0.1 in    0900 AM 12/02   COOP
Fairport 0.9 W                T in     0640 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Pittsford 4.0 SSE             T in     0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Scottsville 0.4 NW            T in     0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Niagara County...
Gasport 1.7 WSW              0.3 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Sanborn 4NE                   T in     0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Lockport 0.8 NE               T in     0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Lockport                      T in     0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Lockport 2.8 WNW              T in     0805 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Ontario County...
Bristol Harbour              0.6 in    0700 AM 12/02   COOP
West Bloomfield 1S           0.5 in    0900 AM 12/02   COOP

...Orleans County...
Medina 0.4 WNW                T in     0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Medina                        T in     0800 AM 12/02   COOP

...Oswego County...
Lacona 3.6 SSE               4.0 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Palermo 2SSE                 2.6 in    0600 AM 12/02   COOP
Phoenix 7.0 NNE              2.6 in    0600 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Minetto 0.1 SE               2.0 in    0800 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Mexico 2SW                   1.0 in    0600 AM 12/02   COOP
West Monroe 1.6 NNE          1.0 in    0730 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Wayne County...
Sodus                        6.0 in    1100 AM 12/02   Public
Wolcott 6.4 NW               4.7 in    0700 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Clyde 0.3 WNW                 T in     0600 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Macedon 2.6 ESE               T in     0710 AM 12/02   COCORAHS
Palmyra 1.6 NW                T in     0750 AM 12/02   COCORAHS

...Wyoming County...
Attica 7SW                   24.6 in   0600 AM 12/02   COOP
Silver Springs 3N            16.9 in   0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Warsaw 4W                    11.7 in   0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Wyoming 3W                   10.9 in   0700 AM 12/02   COOP
Attica                       4.3 in    0123 PM 12/02   Public
&&
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Another major lake effect snow event hits tomorrow into friday with 2-3 feet of snow and blizzard like conditions in the bands.

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations 2 
  to 3 feet in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high 
  as 40 mph will produce considerable blowing and drifting snow.

image.thumb.jpeg.49da9ea87cda9e4ca8fdbcf0f5d9f282.jpeg

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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

The pattern will briefly amplify across North America, with a strong
ridge building over the Rockies and a strong, deep trough digging
into the east. This trough will deliver a very cold airmass to the
region, supporting strong instability over the lakes and another
heavy lake effect snow event. Lake induced equilibrium levels will
peak at around 15K feet Wednesday night and early Thursday as the
coldest mid level air crosses the region, then steadily lower later
Thursday through Friday as the cold airmass becomes more shallow
with time.

Prior to the start of lake effect snow, rain will still be in the
process of changing to wet snow from west to east across the area
Wednesday evening. Expect some minor, slushy non-lake effect
accumulations across the higher terrain with this, and perhaps a
slushy coating for lower elevations.

Off Lake Erie...

A band of lake effect snow will quickly develop late Wednesday
afternoon or evening on the heels of the departing synoptic
precipitation. Expect initial band development well south of Buffalo
across the western Southern Tier and southern Erie County. The band
will begin to strengthen in this area, then start to move northward
through Erie County overnight. Both the GEM and HRRR suggest backing
low level flow ahead of a shortwave moving through the base of the
mid level trough will carry the band all the way north to near or
over Buffalo and Batavia briefly late Wednesday night and early
Thursday morning before settling back south a little towards central
Erie County and the Wyoming/Genesee County border by mid morning
Thursday.

Latest guidance suggests the band may creep back north towards the
immediate Buffalo Southtowns and possibly South Buffalo and some of
the eastern suburbs for a time later Thursday through Thursday
evening, before moving back south again Thursday night. The band
will generally remain across Southern Erie County and the western
Southern Tier from later Thursday night through Friday, where it
will steadily weaken as inversion heights lower.

The Lake Erie band should reach peak intensity later Wednesday night
through Thursday, when snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour.
Expect a weakening trend Thursday night and especially Friday.

As far as storm totals go, expect 2-3 feet in the most persistent
bands. The bullseye is most likely to be in southern Erie County,
with 1-2 feet over western Chautauqua, far northwest Cattaraugus,
and western Wyoming counties. The more immediate Buffalo Southtowns
(that are located in the northern Erie zone) and southern Genesee
County may see 10-20 inches if the band persists long enough that far
north. This is another extremely close call for the City of Buffalo,
with South Buffalo possibly accumulating 1 foot or more while North
Buffalo has very little.

Conditions seem supportive of strong inland penetration with this
band, with moderate accumulations possibly extending into the
western Finger Lakes. Also included an Advisory for Livingston
County, with 4-7" possible in a narrow band across central or
northern Livingston County. This could potentially extend into
portions of Ontario County as well, but confidence is lower that far
from the lake. Snow showers will occasionally peel off the eastern
end of the band and make it all the way into Oswego County and the
southern Tug Hill.

Off Lake Ontario...

Expect lake effect snow to develop later Wednesday evening as the
synoptic precipitation is exiting. Initial lake enhanced upslope
regime across the Tug Hill Plateau will evolve into a more pure lake
effect band later Wednesday night, with the band of snow moving
north towards Watertown and Fort Drum by Thursday morning. The band
may not be particularly strong at first, with some shear still
located in the boundary layer. The band should strengthen Thursday
as boundary layer flow becomes better aligned. The band should spend
most of Thursday over or near Watertown and central Jefferson
County.

Boundary layer flow will then veer more westerly Thursday evening,
carrying the band a little south to center more on the northern and
central Tug Hill region. The highest snowfall rates are likely to
occur Thursday night, when the most favorable convergence is
forecast over the lake, and when lake effect snow will begin to
intersect terrain. Friday, lake effect snow should remain near the
Oswego/Jefferson County border and extending inland across the Tug
Hill Plateau. Inversion heights will steadily lower and the airmass
will dry out, resulting in a weakening of the band later in the day,
and will also force it to shrink back towards the lakeshore.

The Lake Ontario band will likely reach peak intensity later
Thursday through Thursday night or early Friday, when snowfall rates
may reach 2-3" per hour. Expect a weakening trend later Friday as
inversion heights lower.

As far a storm totals go, expect 2-3 feet in the most persistent
bands. The bullseye will most likely be found across the northern
Tug Hill to just south and east of Watertown. This will be
surrounded by a larger footprint of 1-2 feet of snow including
Watertown and central Jefferson County, central and northern Lewis
County, and far northern Oswego County.

Finally, it will turn very windy later Wednesday night through
Thursday evening. Winds may gust up to 40 mph at times, resulting in
considerable blowing and drifting snow where lake effect snow
occurs.

Outside of lake effect areas, expect mainly dry weather and even
some sunshine Thursday through Friday. It will be quite cold, with
highs in the mid 20s for lower elevations and around 20 for higher
terrain Thursday and Friday. Lows Thursday night will be in the
teens, with wind chills in the single digits.
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Tonight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after midnight. Low around 20. Breezy, with a west wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow before 4pm. High near 22. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.
Thursday Night
Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 2am and 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 15. West wind 10 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Friday
A chance of snow showers, mainly before 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 22. West wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
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Some of the highest totals across the area from this last event

..ERIE COUNTY  
 
4 NW EDEN                    42.5 IN   1155 PM 12/12   PUBLIC                 
ORCHARD PARK                 38.0 IN   0600 AM 12/13   TRAINED SPOTTER        
EAST AURORA 1.0 ESE          37.0 IN   1100 PM 12/12   COCORAHS               
5 NNW EDEN                   34.8 IN   0745 AM 12/13   TRAINED SPOTTER        
ELMA CENTER 1.8 SE           34.7 IN   0700 AM 12/13   COCORAHS               
3 SW ELMA                    34.5 IN   0700 AM 12/13   COCORAHS               
WALES                        34.0 IN   0700 AM 12/13   COOP                   
EAST AURORA 2.7 SSE          33.7 IN   0700 AM 12/13   COCORAHS               
2 NNW HAMBURG                33.0 IN   1215 AM 12/13   NWS EMPLOYEE           
1 SW ORCHARD PARK            33.0 IN   1026 AM 12/13   NWS EMPLOYEE           
1 NNE LACKAWANNA             32.0 IN   1200 AM 12/13   TRAINED SPOTTER        
2 NW WEST FALLS              32.0 IN   1230 PM 12/13   TRAINED SPOTTER        
ELMA CENTER                  31.5 IN   0500 PM 12/12   TRAINED SPOTTER        
EAST AURORA 0.1 ENE          31.0 IN   0700 AM 12/13   COCORAHS               
LAKE ERIE BEACH              30.0 IN   0200 PM 12/13   PUBLIC   

..WYOMING COUNTY  
 
WARSAW 4W                    28.5 IN   0700 AM 12/13   COOP                   
ATTICA                       27.0 IN   0730 PM 12/12   TRAINED SPOTTER        
ATTICA 7SW                   26.9 IN   0600 AM 12/13   COOP            

  
..JEFFERSON COUNTY
 
 
4 ENE LORRAINE               41.8 IN   0600 AM 12/13   PUBLIC                 
4 NW COPENHAGEN              25.3 IN   0815 AM 12/13   TRAINED SPOTTER        
ADAMS                        24.0 IN   0600 AM 12/13   BROADCAST MEDIA

..LEWIS COUNTY  
 
BARNES CORNERS               33.0 IN   0844 AM 12/13   PUBLIC                 
COPENHAGEN                   28.0 IN   0100 PM 12/13   PUBLIC

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