BuffaloWeather Posted Wednesday at 10:25 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:25 PM Looks to be a long lasting major lake effect snow event with multiple feet of snow expected. Hardest hit areas will be south of Buffalo. The top analogs are really impressive. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Multiple feet of snow will be possible through the weekend in the most persistent lake snows. Snowfall rates will average one to two inches an hour, but higher rates will be possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted Wednesday at 10:26 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:26 PM .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...Long-Duration, High-Impact Lake Snows Expected Friday Through the Rest of the Weekend... During this period the axis of deep upper level troughing will slowly pivot from James Bay and the central Great Lakes to New England and the Canadian Maritimes...while circulating a deep cyclonic flow of progressively colder air that will result in 850 mb temperatures lowering from around -8C/-9C Friday to the -10C/12C range Saturday and Sunday. Coupled with sufficient background moisture and the approach/passage of some shortwaves/surface troughs embedded within the deeper larger-scale circulation (the most notable of which looks to come between Sunday and Sunday evening)... this will result in an environment rather favorable for long- duration heavy lake effect snows downwind of the lakes. A predominantly westerly flow will direct the heaviest overall snows across areas east of the lakes...where multiple feet of snow are expected and where Winter Storm Watches have therefore been upgraded to Lake Effect Snow Warnings. This being said...the aforementioned shortwave/surface trough passages may also induce some periods of west-southwesterly flow at times...most notably east of Lake Ontario on Friday...and again downwind of both lakes Saturday into Sunday. Digging a bit further into the forecast details...during the day Friday a better aligned flow and marginally colder airmass will support the best lake effect snows east of Lake Erie...with these gradually becoming better organized and slowly drifting north across Chautauqua/Cattaraugus and Southern Erie/Wyoming counties as synoptic moisture increases a bit and the flow backs a little across the lake...with northern portions of the band possibly making it as far north as some of the more distant Buffalo Southtowns during the afternoon. Inland from the lakeshore and where snow is most persistent...this band could produce as much as 5 to 10 inches by the end of the day. Meanwhile off of Lake Ontario...a bit more of a backed/sheared west-southwesterly flow and slightly warmer airmass out ahead of a weak surface trough passing across southern Quebec will result in more disorganized lake effect snows east-northeast of that lake...where 2 to 4 inches will be possible inland from the lakeshore. As we move into Friday night...winds will veer a bit to more of a due westerly orientation following the departure of the above mentioned surface trough...resulting in the lake snows settling back southward across the traditional snow belts east of both lakes... including the Tug Hill region east of Lake Ontario. Further gradual cooling of our airmass and an increase in orographically-driven lift coupled with an increase in fetch will allow the Lake Ontario lake snows to really get going as these drift toward the Tug Hill region...likely resulting in fresh accumulations of over a foot from areas just south of Watertown to the northern portions of the Tug Hill. Meanwhile off of Lake Erie...another general 5 to 10 inches of accumulations will be likely within the most persistent snows from the southern third of Erie county southward into Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties. As we move through Saturday and Saturday night...the low level flow will again back at least somewhat out ahead of a more significant shortwave impulse/surface trough approaching from the Upper Great Lakes. This being said...there remains a great deal of uncertainty at this time with respect to exactly how much winds will back...with the 12z guidance exhibiting a range of scenarios between just a little north of due west (the NAM) to more southwesterly (the GEM)...with the GFS lying roughly in between the middle of these two extremes. Off Lake Erie...this stark difference is rather significant in that it implies a number of possible scenarios ranging from the lake snows remaining entirely within the current Lake Effect Snow Warning area (and south of the Buffalo area)...to making a northward migration all the way to the city and central/northern suburbs. Additionally...there are also notable differences in the timing of this wind shift...as well as other factors such as a possible increase in shear that further complicate the forecast for this time period. While definitely not a high confidence forecast...given the holiday weekend and the increased potential for at least some of the heavier lake snows to make it far enough north to potentially impact portions of the Buffalo area (most likely South Buffalo and the more immediate Buffalo Southtowns) for at least a portion of this time frame...out of an abundance of caution we have hoisted an additional Winter Storm Watch for Northern Erie county from Saturday through Sunday (more on Sunday in a moment). At this point...between Saturday and Saturday night roughly from 6 to 12 inches of snow appear possible where the Lake Erie snows are most persistent... though it must be emphasized that actual amounts will be highly dependent upon both band movement/residence time and the amount of available shear...factors that could result in higher or lower amounts than currently forecast. Meanwhile off Lake Ontario...a stronger/more organized band of lake effect snow should be poised to dump an additional foot or more of snow roughly every 12 hours or so as it wobbles back northward to the Watertown area between Saturday and Saturday night...with exact amounts that will be received again a direct function of band movement/residence time and the amount of shear. At this point would expect somewhat heavier snows during Saturday when the flow is more westerly and less sheared...with a shorter west-southwesterly to southwesterly fetch and increased shear likely inducing at least some weakening in the snow band Saturday night. Sunday and Sunday night...the aforementioned more significant shortwave impulse/surface trough will slide southeastward and across our area. The increase in lift and moisture attendant to this feature should help to at least temporarily reinvigorate the lake snows while also driving these back southward...first to areas east of the lakes...and then eventually southeast of the lakes as the flow veers to west-northwesterly to northwesterly. Additional significant accumulations are likely through this time...with these again highly dependent upon band residence time and strength... factors that will in turn be heavily dependent upon the timing and speed of the trough passage. Given the potential for additional significant accums and the forecast uncertainty due to the above factors...the new Winter Storm Watch for lake effect snow for Northern Erie county extends out through Sunday and the first half of Sunday night. Outside of the main lake effect bands...it will be mainly dry with just some much more scattered snow (and during Friday, rain) showers for much of this period...save for during Sunday/Sunday night when the aforementioned trough passage may also bring some more general scattered to numerous show showers/minor accumulations. Otherwise temperatures will average below normal...with highs pulling back to the upper 20s to mid 30s for both Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level low will remain over eastern Canada and the Great Lakes region this period, with cold air (850 hPa temperatures -9 to - 12C) flowing over the still warm lake waters generating lake snows downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. A shortwave passing through the flow may lift the snowbands northward towards Buffalo and Watertown Tuesday-Tuesday night; otherwise west to west-northwest flow will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted Wednesday at 10:27 PM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 10:27 PM Through 7 pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted yesterday at 01:12 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:12 AM Forecasted totals through Monday morning 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted yesterday at 09:45 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:45 PM Quote The plume of increasingly focused lake snow should be fairly stationary between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug and the Watertown metro area Friday night. The quality of boundary layer moisture and instability strongly suggest this band will become quite intense at times with 3+ inch/hour snowfall rates possible. In addition...the first 36 to 48 hours of this event (off both lakes) will feature a nearly PERFECT environment for lake effect thundersnow. A fairly deep mixed phase layer (in this case -10c level arnd 4kft) will be in place with an equilibrium level near or greater than 15kft. Given the strong convergence in the low levels... we can fully anticipate thunder/lightning to be found within the heart of each band...particularly within 20-25 miles of the source of the instability...the lakes. Tug/Watertown area is going to get some crazy stuff with this one. Excerpt from BUF AFD. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Tug/Watertown area is going to get some crazy stuff with this one. Excerpt from BUF AFD. The entire thing is drool worthy, especially off Ontario .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... While there will be a lull in the weather early this evening... deepening cold air (H85 temps arnd -10c) in the wake of the exited storm system will combine with a fresh lobe of deep synoptic moisture to set the stage for the start of the much advertised lake effect snow event. A westerly flow of the cold air will encourage disorganized lake effect rain and snow to start over Chautauqua county during the evening hours. This lake induced convection will try to become better organized during the wee hours of Friday morning when there could even be a little thunder and lightning with the consolidating band. As is typically the case...the same will take place east of Lake Ontario some 3-6 hours later. Fresh snowfall amounts by daybreak will generally range from 1 to 3 inches across southern Chautauqua county and also over the Tug Hill plateau. As we push through Friday and Friday night...a highly amplified longwave pattern over North America will deliver the coldest airmass of the season so far...and this will support the start of what should turn out to be a classic and highly impactful lake effect snow event. Lake temperatures are near record warm after the warm fall season and will support extreme instability over the lakes through the event with lake induced equilibrium levels in the 15-20K foot range. The strong instability will very likely support thundersnow in the stronger bands. Expect peak snowfall rates of 2-3" per hour at times when the bands are at their strongest. West to WSW winds will gust to 25-35 mph at times. This will produce some typical blowing and drifting in open areas. Off Lake Erie... Lake effect snow will already be in place across Chautauqua county early Friday morning on westerly flow with bands of moderate to heavy snow that will become better organized as it will lift north during the course of the day. For the midday and afternoon...a resulting plume of moderate to heavy snow will extend from northern Chautauqua and southern Erie counties across Wyoming county. Daytime snow accumulations will range from 5 to 10 inches within this lake effect plume with the higher amounts being found on the Chautauqua ridge. The band will continue to become better organized Friday night while remaining in place from the Chautauqua county lakeshore across southern Erie county to Wyoming county. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches an hour will be likely within the heart of this band with overnight snowfall forecast to range form a few inches across western Wyoming county to 8 to 14 inches from near Silver Creek across southern Erie county. Off Lake Ontario... Lake effect snow will be in the process of organizing and intensifying east of the lake early Friday morning. Westerly flow early will back to the WSW during the day, carrying a band of snow from the central and northern Tug Hill northward towards Watertown during the afternoon. The plume of increasingly focused lake snow should be fairly stationary between Watertown and the northern slopes of the Tug and the Watertown metro area Friday night. The quality of boundary layer moisture and instability strongly suggest this band will become quite intense at times with 3+ inch/hour snowfall rates possible. In addition...the first 36 to 48 hours of this event (off both lakes) will feature a nearly PERFECT environment for lake effect thundersnow. A fairly deep mixed phase layer (in this case -10c level arnd 4kft) will be in place with an equilibrium level near or greater than 15kft. Given the strong convergence in the low levels... we can fully anticipate thunder/lightning to be found within the heart of each band...particularly within 20-25 miles of the source of the instability...the lakes. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... ...LONG DURATION, HIGH IMPACT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND... The longwave pattern across North America will amplify over the weekend, with a ridge building along the US/Canadian Pacific Coast, forcing a longwave trough to deepen over central and eastern North America. This will deliver the coldest airmass of the season so far, with the synoptic setting prime for a long duration, significant lake effect snow event downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Lake temperatures are near record warm levels after the warm fall season, and will support extreme instability over the lakes with lake induced equilibrium levels generally in the 15-20K foot range much of the time...and even a bit higher than that at times east of Lake Ontario. Coupled with a fairly deep mixed phase layer (in this case -10c level around 4kft) and strong low level convergence...this degree of instability may also support some thundersnow in the stronger bands...particularly east of Lake Ontario where the most intense lake snows are expected. A mid level closed low will continue to wobble about near James Bay through the first part of Saturday, in the classic position for a significant west to west-southwest flow event...with local pattern and CIPS analogs both suggesting a major, high impact lake effect snow event east of the lakes. After that time...the mid level closed low will elongate and break into two parts...with the larger and more dominant eastern portion breaking off towards Labrador...and the western portion and its embedded shortwave pivoting southeast across the central/eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday. This will induce changes in the low/mid level flow pattern such that winds will turn more northwesterly by Sunday night and Monday... thereby directing the lake snows to areas southeast of the lakes. When the bands are at their strongest...peak snowfall rates may reach 1-3" per hour at times east of Lake Erie...and to as high as 4+" per hour east of Lake Ontario. Westerly to west-southwesterly winds will also gust to 25-30 mph at times (most likely on Saturday)...leading to the typical blowing and drifting in open areas. With all that said...let`s dig a little deeper into the forecast details. Off Lake Erie... On Saturday, flow adjustments out ahead of the slowly approaching synoptic-scale trough axis and the effects of lake aggregate troughing will likely allow boundary layer flow to back to the west- southwest...carrying the band of lake effect snow northward through Erie County into the more immediate Buffalo Southtowns. There still remains some uncertainty with how far north the band will get, with the Canadian GEM still the farthest north amongst the guidance. Early season lake effect snow events with strong instability often end up farther north than much of the guidance, and with this in mind have nudged the band position yet a little further northward... with the latest forecast lying north of the ensemble mean and closest to the Canadian GEM position. Expect the band to reach its northernmost position sometime between Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. There will be a very sharp cutoff to accumulating snow on the northern edge, as is often the case in this type of setup. Expect further adjustments to band position and intensity in the coming days as the details become more clear. On Sunday, boundary layer flow may still be west-southwesterly for the first half of the day, with a band possibly still over or near the Buffalo Southtowns. The aforementioned shortwave and attendant surface trough will then cross the eastern Great Lakes during the afternoon and early evening hours. Model soundings suggest that shear may increase over Lake Erie ahead of the shortwave/surface trough, which may allow for some weakening and broadening of the band. Later Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, boundary layer flow will rapidly veer to the northwest behind the trough, carrying the lake effect snow quickly southward into the western Southern Tier...where it will then remain through the rest of the period. Taking expected snowfall totals in the near term period also into account...expect storm totals through the end of the Short Term period to reach multiple feet in the most persistent bands. More precise storm totals will ultimately depend on how long the band can remain over one particular area, with more clarity in the coming days as the fine details of the forecast become more certain. This being said...at this point expect the highest totals across western Chautauqua, far northwest Cattaraugus, and southern/central Erie County. Off Lake Ontario... Saturday through Sunday expect the band to oscillate between Watertown and the northern Tug Hill region numerous times owing to subtle changes in the boundary layer flow direction. The quality of boundary layer moisture and instability suggest this band will likely become quite intense at times, with 4+ inch/hour snowfall rates and thundersnow possible at times. The band will remain in the same general area of the northern Tug Hill or near Watertown through most of Sunday. The mid-level shortwave will then cross the eastern end of Lake Ontario Sunday evening, with its associated surface trough crossing the lake and merging with the lake effect band...resulting in the latter getting carried quickly southward across the Tug Hill and into the Wayne- Northern Cayuga-Oswego County corridor overnight. Taking expected snowfall totals in the near term period also into account...expect storm totals east of Lake Ontario to also reach multiple feet in the most persistent bands...and to be higher than those east of Lake Erie. More precise storm totals will ultimately depend on how long the band can remain over one particular area, with more clarity in the coming days as the fine details of the forecast become more certain. This being said...as of now expect the highest totals across the northern Tug Hill region to near, or just southeast of Watertown. 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BuffaloWeather Posted 22 hours ago Author Share Posted 22 hours ago New map. 60-72" contour for Ontario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Hey folks, I mostly post in the tennessee valley thread, been a member here for years. Car load of guys loading up to head to bills game from Tennessee, we are trying to swing east and enter buffalo from geneova-batavia angle. We have an all wheel drive vehicle. Do we have a prayer ha? I am guessing the 3.4 inches falling in Batavia over 3 days is nothing to you guys, and the roads will be solid. Buffalo city center seems mildly hit with things rapidily getting worse to the south. Thanks for any thoughts you may have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted 19 hours ago Author Share Posted 19 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Bigbald said: Hey folks, I mostly post in the tennessee valley thread, been a member here for years. Car load of guys loading up to head to bills game from Tennessee, we are trying to swing east and enter buffalo from geneova-batavia angle. We have an all wheel drive vehicle. Do we have a prayer ha? I am guessing the 3.4 inches falling in Batavia over 3 days is nothing to you guys, and the roads will be solid. Buffalo city center seems mildly hit with things rapidily getting worse to the south. Thanks for any thoughts you may have. Youll be fine if you go around the band. You'll likely be fine if you drive up the I90 thruway as they usually plow that first but conditions will be rough. Good call to go around the band. I'll be at the game too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Youll be fine if you go around the band. You'll likely be fine if you drive up the I90 thruway as they usually plow that first but conditions will be rough. Good call to go around the band. I'll be at the game too! Thanks, we are heading up to Pittsburg tomorrow, swinging east from there. Hope to backdoor into buffalo midday Saturday. No way in heck we are driving to the game as we will Uber or whatever the best method is to get to the stadium (staying in downtown). Seeing a bills game in lake effect snow is a bucket lister! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted 17 hours ago Author Share Posted 17 hours ago The high end potential is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Easily the event with the highest potential since Nov/Dec 2022 here, and especially E of Lake Ontario. Those 2022 events were more Erie-focused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I’m about 6 miles southeast of Erie, PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Erie PA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 14 hours ago, andyhb said: Easily the event with the highest potential since Nov/Dec 2022 here, and especially E of Lake Ontario. Those 2022 events were more Erie-focused. January of this year had 81" in 4 days just north of me. I measured 77" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago I'd like to come up tomorrow morning from Maryland. I see where 90 is closed...is there a good site that you rely on to determine what is passable?would love to link up to the chat since this isn't used very frequently - would you PM me with the link? TY as I'd Ike to chase tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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