Turkey Day Birch Bender Snow Storm/Observation Thread 11/28/-11/29

[NW_of_GYX]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Worked for me going on 42 yrs, Had to put your foot down early on and don't let up...........

What happens if her foot is bigger than yours 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Would have to be a biggie. Ineedsnow is willing to get divorced and drive 30 miles for slush.

lol, Well, I still need to choose the hill to die on at times, But she knows my tendencies, She already said i'm guessing you'll be staying up most of the night........lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Will be spending the duration of this storm at 1100’ near Sunapee NH, we could rip pretty good here.

That seems like a good spot.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

What happens if her foot is bigger than yours 

I usually give her the shovel and tell her to do the steps, Path to the oil tank and the ramp for her shed.

[dryslot]

The goods are just 1 mile NW of me, ha ha, Another tic or two south will work.

[NW_of_GYX]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The goods are just 1 mile NW of me, ha ha

This is just a classic setup for my area to rip. I’m trying to remind myself this is just the first of what I hope are many this season, not worth divorce but I’m already deep FOMO

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The goods are just 1 mile NW of me, ha ha, Another tic or two south will work.

That is key. Follow the fronto for snow. Need to pound VVs into the snowgrowth zone to maximize latent cooling...even at higher elevations.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Worked for me going on 42 yrs, Had to put your foot down early on and don't let up...........

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would have to be a biggie. Ineedsnow is willing to get divorced and drive 30 miles for slush.

 

Just now, dryslot said:

lol, Well, I still need to choose the hill to die on at times, But she knows my tendencies, She already said i'm guessing you'll be staying up most of the night........lol

Yeah—for the most part my wife knows if something big is happening I’m probably on the road. I pull the card more for tropical though. A few years ago when I chased Hurricane Laura I woke up one morning and just said “I’m going to Louisiana”. 

In 2022 though when Buffalo had its all time Christmas blizzard, I stayed home. I probably could’ve tried it but 1) she’s really become part of the Christmas traditions after years of work so I didn’t want to undo that and 2) it was the first Christmas after my dad passed. It was the right call, but part of me hates that I made it lol. 
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Obviously easier to do with no kids lol

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

 

Yeah—for the most part my wife knows if something big is happening I’m probably on the road. I pull the card more for tropical though. A few years ago when I chased Hurricane Laura I woke up one morning and just said “I’m going to Louisiana”. 

In 2022 though when Buffalo had its all time Christmas blizzard, I stayed home. I probably could’ve tried it but 1) she’s really become part of the Christmas traditions after years of work so I didn’t want to undo that and 2) it was the first Christmas after my dad passed. It was the right call, but part of me hates that I made it lol. 
 

 

Yes, You need to know when to pick your battles and don't overplay your hand, But i still like to push the envelope a bit to see how much more rope i can get to hang myself........lol

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s gonna be a man band somewhere in central VT into adjacent NH and Maine. Hrrr and nam are maybe more north of lakes region, but somewhere near there will just slam paste.

Wish I was over where we go in summer on Moose Pond near Bridgeton. They are gonna get croaked I think. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wish I was over where we go in summer on Moose Pond near Bridgeton. They are gonna get croaked I think. 

Yeah that could be a great spot, especially a little higher up.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wish I was over where we go in summer on Moose Pond near Bridgeton. They are gonna get croaked I think. 

Yes there and IZG is where i would favor the goods.

[NW_of_GYX]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wish I was over where we go in summer on Moose Pond near Bridgeton. They are gonna get croaked I think. 

Yes and I will be slumming it with the rest of you SNEers while my cat enjoys it. And I can look forward to dealing with an ice wall in my driveway when I return on Saturday FML 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Yes and I will be slumming it with the rest of you SNEers while my cat enjoys it. And I can look forward to dealing with an ice wall in my driveway when I return on Saturday FML 

Tell her your staying put, Then duck...........

 

[MarkO]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That makes more sense then. Are you far from Sandwich Notch road?

Only about a mile as the crow flies, but it's about a 5 minute drive to the beginning on 49.

[dryslot]

12z GFS has bowed to the king,

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS has bowed to the king,

It's been King Nothing for a few years, need to regain the thrown first. But yeah, euro won. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's been King Nothing for a few years, need to regain the thrown first. But yeah, euro won. 

I agree, But it did win this one, It latched on early and held serve.

[weatherwiz]

There is going to be one heck of a narrow fronto band. Someone is going to get smoked. Wouldn't be surprised to see a narrow strip of totals around 12'' from interior Maine southwest into central New Hampshire. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There is going to be one heck of a narrow fronto band. Someone is going to get smoked. Wouldn't be surprised to see a narrow strip of totals around 12'' from interior Maine southwest into central New Hampshire. 

There's going to be some 1-2"/hr plus rates in there for someone with that strengthening surface low.

[CoastalWx]

Tries to slot even into the Lakes Region on the GFS. Might be an E-Se jack towards the whites. 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds will increase tonight as high pressure exits to the east
and a developing area of low pressure moves northeastward over
the Ohio River Valley. This low pressure system is progged to
arrive over southern New England by Thursday afternoon before it
crosses over the Gulf of Maine Thursday night into early Friday
morning and then exiting over the Canadian Maritimes. This
system will bring impactful rain and snow to the region for the
Thanksgiving holiday. Below are the latest forecast details.

Timing: Latest hi-res and global ensemble guidance indicates
that light snow and rain will begin to overspread the region
from west to east during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday.
Precipitation rates will begin to increase on Thursday afternoon
through the evening hours as FGEN forcing increases along with
increasing omega within the DGZ zone. The latest WPC snowband
probability tracker (SPT) indicates the potential for snowfall
rates of 1-2"/hr across the foothills and lakes region of ME and
NH during the afternoon and evening, which will result in
rapidly deteriorating travel conditions for the thanksgiving
holiday. Snow and coastal rain/snow mix will then begin to end
from west to east during the late evening and overnight hours.

Precipitation Types: Most locations are likely to begin as a
period of light snow early Thursday morning before coastal and
southeastern NH locations transition to mainly rain for several
hours during the day as h850 temperatures warm above 0C. A
mixture of rain and snow is then likely for the interior
including the lakes regions for much of the day with light
accumulations through the early afternoon. Mostly snow is then
likely for the foothills, mountains, and far north. As the low
deepens while traveling over the Gulf of Maine Thursday
afternoon and evening it will begin to wrap around colder air
and this combined with strong dynamic cooling will likely allow
for most locations including the coast to transition to at least
a mix of rain and snow but in many cases it will likely be
primarily snow by late afternoon. This is when travel
conditions will begin to quickly deteriorate as increased
snowfall rates combined with a lowering sun angle and cooling
temperatures allow for rapid accumulations.

Amounts and Headlines: The snowfall forecast has increased based
on latest forecast guidance. There continues to be uncertainty
in exact amounts though due to discrepancies between individual
model runs and ensemble suites but generally did bring at least
some accumulation to the entire region. More specifically, the
current forecast calls for a slushy 1-2" along the coast with
2-4" about 20 miles or so inland. Amounts then increase to 4-8"
across the foothills and western NH with localized amounts
nearing 10". It is important to keep in mind, however, that
these amounts are likely to change some as new information
becomes available but despite this impacts are expected to the
holiday travel. As a result, in collaboration with neighboring
WFOs and the WPC went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch
where confidence is highest to reach warning level snowfall.
Some areas under this watch are a little below warning
thresholds currently but given the timing of the system falling
on a holiday combined with likely heavy snowbanding, and wet
nature that the snow will be, believe a watch was the best route
for now. Advisories will likely be needed for much of the
interior.

Other Impacts: This looks to be mostly a one threat system as
winds will largely remain below 25 mph and no coastal flooding
is expected.

&&

Love it.  Snow cover at Pit2.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

There's going to be some 1-2"/hr plus rates in there for someone with that strengthening surface low.

For sure. You also have H7 developing and closing off just off the Maine coast as the system is lifting northeast. I wouldn't be shocked if there are some 15-16'' totals

[MarkO]

32 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

What happens if her foot is bigger than yours 

Figuratively, her's is! She just told me "I'm Air B&B'ing a condo in Florida in January with my sisters". I told her "Awesome, have a good time, I'll pop in for a long weekend, and oh, yeah, I just booked a week at Steamboat with Bryan." She asked me which boyfriend Brian, or Bryan?, I told her the pilot one, lol. 

It's just how our relationship has worked over the years. She's always been very close with her sisters, as I am with my friends. The kids are grown/independent (college junior, highschool senior). We've learned things like holidays and Thanksgiving aren't worth fighting over. We used to fight over it, but now that we've been married for 22 years, it's actually much better.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For sure. You also have H7 developing and closing off just off the Maine coast as the system is lifting northeast. I wouldn't be shocked if there are some 15-16'' totals

[mahk_webstah]

47 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The goods are just 1 mile NW of me, ha ha, Another tic or two south will work.

That nails Brian but might just miss me by a couple of miles unless we’ve got a strong north northeast wind

[NW_of_GYX]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

For sure. You also have H7 developing and closing off just off the Maine coast as the system is lifting northeast. I wouldn't be shocked if there are some 15-16'' totals

easterly fetch off the gulf, have to think this will over perform modeled QPF in some areas. 

[mahk_webstah]

It’s just nice to have something that is incrementally getting better looking as it gets closer. Last year was just the opposite almost every time.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

easterly fetch off the gulf, have to think this will over perform modeled QPF in some areas. 

Its going to pile up east of the foot hills with that fetch.