Turkey Day Birch Bender Snow Storm/Observation Thread 11/28/-11/29

[dryslot]

Looks like CNE/NNE and portions of Western SNE are in for there first snows of the season, Post your analysis and observations here.

[CoastalWx]

HRRR continues to be really warm and amped up.

[CoastalWx]

It could be right, but I favor a track  may be more towards Plymouth area.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

12Z HRRR, Internal snowfall algorithm. Pretty warm, gets the goodies further north.

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR continues to be really warm and amped up.

NAM definitely coming in a bit better

[dryslot]

12z Nam looks like its a couple tics south and a bit colder too.

[ineedsnow]

Still a bit warm and need a 10 mile shift or so.. even if we don't get anything here I'm going to sneak out and take a quick drive tomorrow just to get my snow fix

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Still a bit warm and need a 10 mile shift or so.. even if we don't get anything here I'm going to sneak out and take a quick drive tomorrow just to get my snow fix

Just relax and enjoy time with the fam. It will come. 

[CoastalWx]

NAM is still warm. Track over PYM.

[dryslot]

0z Friday when its ripping here.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just relax and enjoy time with the fam. It will come. 

NAM is so close.. I'll enjoy it more with snow 

[NW_of_GYX]

NAM looks good here, that’ll bend some birches 

[dryslot]

Going to be nice to have snow for the end of deer season up here.

[NW_of_GYX]

This is gonna be a rough one for the guys plowing. RIP lawns 

[klw]

Winter Storm Watch for my area:

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ021&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ035&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=43.7543&lon=-72.3728

Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern
Windsor-
Including the cities of East Wallingford, Springfield, Randolph,
Rutland, Fair Haven, Ludlow, Bradford, Killington, Bethel, and
White River Junction
314 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulations greater than 7
  inches possible.

* WHERE...Orange, Eastern Rutland, Eastern Windsor, Western Rutland,
  and Western Windsor Counties.

* WHEN...From late tonight through late Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact Thanksgiving holiday travel Thursday and
  Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snowfall is expected above 1000
  feet, but even light amounts could be impactful considering the
  additional volume of traffic expected from holiday travelers.

[dryslot]

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Clouds will increase tonight as high pressure exits to the east
and a developing area of low pressure moves northeastward over
the Ohio River Valley. This low pressure system is progged to
arrive over southern New England by Thursday afternoon before it
crosses over the Gulf of Maine Thursday night into early Friday
morning and then exiting over the Canadian Maritimes. This
system will bring impactful rain and snow to the region for the
Thanksgiving holiday. Below are the latest forecast details.

Timing: Latest hi-res and global ensemble guidance indicates
that light snow and rain will begin to overspread the region
from west to east during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday.
Precipitation rates will begin to increase on Thursday afternoon
through the evening hours as FGEN forcing increases along with
increasing omega within the DGZ zone. The latest WPC snowband
probability tracker (SPT) indicates the potential for snowfall
rates of 1-2"/hr across the foothills and lakes region of ME and
NH during the afternoon and evening, which will result in
rapidly deteriorating travel conditions for the thanksgiving
holiday. Snow and coastal rain/snow mix will then begin to end
from west to east during the late evening and overnight hours.

Precipitation Types: Most locations are likely to begin as a
period of light snow early Thursday morning before coastal and
southeastern NH locations transition to mainly rain for several
hours during the day as h850 temperatures warm above 0C. A
mixture of rain and snow is then likely for the interior
including the lakes regions for much of the day with light
accumulations through the early afternoon. Mostly snow is then
likely for the foothills, mountains, and far north. As the low
deepens while traveling over the Gulf of Maine Thursday
afternoon and evening it will begin to wrap around colder air
and this combined with strong dynamic cooling will likely allow
for most locations including the coast to transition to at least
a mix of rain and snow but in many cases it will likely be
primarily snow by late afternoon. This is when travel
conditions will begin to quickly deteriorate as increased
snowfall rates combined with a lowering sun angle and cooling
temperatures allow for rapid accumulations.

Amounts and Headlines: The snowfall forecast has increased based
on latest forecast guidance. There continues to be uncertainty
in exact amounts though due to discrepancies between individual
model runs and ensemble suites but generally did bring at least
some accumulation to the entire region. More specifically, the
current forecast calls for a slushy 1-2" along the coast with
2-4" about 20 miles or so inland. Amounts then increase to 4-8"
across the foothills and western NH with localized amounts
nearing 10". It is important to keep in mind, however, that
these amounts are likely to change some as new information
becomes available but despite this impacts are expected to the
holiday travel. As a result, in collaboration with neighboring
WFOs and the WPC went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch
where confidence is highest to reach warning level snowfall.
Some areas under this watch are a little below warning
thresholds currently but given the timing of the system falling
on a holiday combined with likely heavy snowbanding, and wet
nature that the snow will be, believe a watch was the best route
for now. Advisories will likely be needed for much of the
interior.

Other Impacts: This looks to be mostly a one threat system as
winds will largely remain below 25 mph and no coastal flooding
is expected.

&&

[NW_of_GYX]

Strange that GYX hasn’t issued the watch here yet. South west and east of me are under it 

[mcglups]

1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Strange that GYX hasn’t lifted the watch here yet. South west and east of me are under it 

agreed. I think they went for the watch for the southern zones already hedging on the travel impact and population density, even though the conditions don't quite match warning criteria. So, they probably opted to not even do such a thing for less travelled areas. we shall see!

[CoastalWx]

There’s gonna be a man band somewhere in central VT into adjacent NH and Maine. Hrrr and nam are maybe more north of lakes region, but somewhere near there will just slam paste.

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

It's just one of the HREF ensemble members, but this is quite the jump, ha.

[CoastalWx]

I know it' the NAM, but it should have an idea 24-30 hrs out.

 

Check out the NAM Wxnerds.com You can see 950mb which probably is a much better representation of where it would flash to snow. Basically the Monads to Lakes region N of KCON into Maine. Adjacent VT too. H7 fronto shifts to the whites, so south of there may have a little trouble...but you'll want to be probably H7-H6 fronto area for the good based on where the snow growth is. It will be track dependent. 

[MarkO]

Screw people. I just changed plans from dinner in RI (wife's side dinner aroun 6pm) to Danvers (my side 1pm) and going to bail out of there by 2, and spend the evening up north with just my dog and a roaring wood stove

[NW_of_GYX]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know it' the NAM, but it should have an idea 24-30 hrs out.

 

Check out the NAM Wxnerds.com You can see 950mb which probably is a much better representation of where it would flash to snow. Basically the Monads to Lakes region N of KCON into Maine. Adjacent VT too. H7 fronto shifts to the whites, so south of there may have a little trouble...but you'll want to be probably H7-H6 fronto area for the good based on where the snow growth is. It will be track dependent. 

I have a feeling I’m going to be right in the middle of the deform axis. Should be fun for a while. I’ll be in mass for the holiday so will miss out on the fun at home 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Screw people. I just changed plans from dinner in RI (wife's side dinner aroun 6pm) to Danvers (my side 1pm) and going to bail out of there by 2, and spend the evening up north with just my dog and a roaring wood stove

Good luck with staying married.

[NW_of_GYX]

3 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Screw people. I just changed plans from dinner in RI (wife's side dinner aroun 6pm) to Danvers (my side 1pm) and going to bail out of there by 2, and spend the evening up north with just my dog and a roaring wood stove

Ya I floated that idea to the old lady about an hour ago, hard no. Guess I’ll stay coupled for at least one more storm 

[MarkO]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Good luck with staying married.

When it comes to skiing and snowstorms, she know's better, lol. It's the reason I built the cabin in the first place. Plus, she's on call, so she's heading back from RI after dinner.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, MarkO said:

When it comes to skiing and snowstorms, she know's better, lol. It's the reason I built the cabin in the first place. Plus, she's on call, so she's heading back from RI after dinner.

That makes more sense then. Are you far from Sandwich Notch road?

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good luck with staying married.

Worked for me going on 42 yrs, Had to put your foot down early on and don't let up...........

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Worked for me going on 42 yrs, Had to put your foot down early on and don't let up...........

Would have to be a biggie. Ineedsnow is willing to get divorced and drive 30 miles for slush.

[Boston Bulldog]

Will be spending the duration of this storm at 1100’ near Sunapee NH, we could rip pretty good here.