dryslot Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Looks like CNE/NNE and portions of Western SNE are in for there first snows of the season, Post your analysis and observations here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 HRRR continues to be really warm and amped up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 It could be right, but I favor a track may be more towards Plymouth area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 12Z HRRR, Internal snowfall algorithm. Pretty warm, gets the goodies further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR continues to be really warm and amped up. NAM definitely coming in a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 12z Nam looks like its a couple tics south and a bit colder too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Still a bit warm and need a 10 mile shift or so.. even if we don't get anything here I'm going to sneak out and take a quick drive tomorrow just to get my snow fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Still a bit warm and need a 10 mile shift or so.. even if we don't get anything here I'm going to sneak out and take a quick drive tomorrow just to get my snow fix Just relax and enjoy time with the fam. It will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 NAM is still warm. Track over PYM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 0z Friday when its ripping here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just relax and enjoy time with the fam. It will come. NAM is so close.. I'll enjoy it more with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 NAM looks good here, that’ll bend some birches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 Going to be nice to have snow for the end of deer season up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 This is gonna be a rough one for the guys plowing. RIP lawns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Winter Storm Watch for my area: https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ021&warncounty=VTC027&firewxzone=VTZ035&local_place1=West Norwich VT&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=43.7543&lon=-72.3728 Orange-Western Rutland-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor- Including the cities of East Wallingford, Springfield, Randolph, Rutland, Fair Haven, Ludlow, Bradford, Killington, Bethel, and White River Junction 314 AM EST Wed Nov 27 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Snow accumulations greater than 7 inches possible. * WHERE...Orange, Eastern Rutland, Eastern Windsor, Western Rutland, and Western Windsor Counties. * WHEN...From late tonight through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact Thanksgiving holiday travel Thursday and Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Heaviest snowfall is expected above 1000 feet, but even light amounts could be impactful considering the additional volume of traffic expected from holiday travelers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Clouds will increase tonight as high pressure exits to the east and a developing area of low pressure moves northeastward over the Ohio River Valley. This low pressure system is progged to arrive over southern New England by Thursday afternoon before it crosses over the Gulf of Maine Thursday night into early Friday morning and then exiting over the Canadian Maritimes. This system will bring impactful rain and snow to the region for the Thanksgiving holiday. Below are the latest forecast details. Timing: Latest hi-res and global ensemble guidance indicates that light snow and rain will begin to overspread the region from west to east during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. Precipitation rates will begin to increase on Thursday afternoon through the evening hours as FGEN forcing increases along with increasing omega within the DGZ zone. The latest WPC snowband probability tracker (SPT) indicates the potential for snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr across the foothills and lakes region of ME and NH during the afternoon and evening, which will result in rapidly deteriorating travel conditions for the thanksgiving holiday. Snow and coastal rain/snow mix will then begin to end from west to east during the late evening and overnight hours. Precipitation Types: Most locations are likely to begin as a period of light snow early Thursday morning before coastal and southeastern NH locations transition to mainly rain for several hours during the day as h850 temperatures warm above 0C. A mixture of rain and snow is then likely for the interior including the lakes regions for much of the day with light accumulations through the early afternoon. Mostly snow is then likely for the foothills, mountains, and far north. As the low deepens while traveling over the Gulf of Maine Thursday afternoon and evening it will begin to wrap around colder air and this combined with strong dynamic cooling will likely allow for most locations including the coast to transition to at least a mix of rain and snow but in many cases it will likely be primarily snow by late afternoon. This is when travel conditions will begin to quickly deteriorate as increased snowfall rates combined with a lowering sun angle and cooling temperatures allow for rapid accumulations. Amounts and Headlines: The snowfall forecast has increased based on latest forecast guidance. There continues to be uncertainty in exact amounts though due to discrepancies between individual model runs and ensemble suites but generally did bring at least some accumulation to the entire region. More specifically, the current forecast calls for a slushy 1-2" along the coast with 2-4" about 20 miles or so inland. Amounts then increase to 4-8" across the foothills and western NH with localized amounts nearing 10". It is important to keep in mind, however, that these amounts are likely to change some as new information becomes available but despite this impacts are expected to the holiday travel. As a result, in collaboration with neighboring WFOs and the WPC went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch where confidence is highest to reach warning level snowfall. Some areas under this watch are a little below warning thresholds currently but given the timing of the system falling on a holiday combined with likely heavy snowbanding, and wet nature that the snow will be, believe a watch was the best route for now. Advisories will likely be needed for much of the interior. Other Impacts: This looks to be mostly a one threat system as winds will largely remain below 25 mph and no coastal flooding is expected. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Strange that GYX hasn’t issued the watch here yet. South west and east of me are under it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcglups Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 minute ago, NW_of_GYX said: Strange that GYX hasn’t lifted the watch here yet. South west and east of me are under it agreed. I think they went for the watch for the southern zones already hedging on the travel impact and population density, even though the conditions don't quite match warning criteria. So, they probably opted to not even do such a thing for less travelled areas. we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 There’s gonna be a man band somewhere in central VT into adjacent NH and Maine. Hrrr and nam are maybe more north of lakes region, but somewhere near there will just slam paste. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 It's just one of the HREF ensemble members, but this is quite the jump, ha. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 I know it' the NAM, but it should have an idea 24-30 hrs out. Check out the NAM Wxnerds.com You can see 950mb which probably is a much better representation of where it would flash to snow. Basically the Monads to Lakes region N of KCON into Maine. Adjacent VT too. H7 fronto shifts to the whites, so south of there may have a little trouble...but you'll want to be probably H7-H6 fronto area for the good based on where the snow growth is. It will be track dependent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Screw people. I just changed plans from dinner in RI (wife's side dinner aroun 6pm) to Danvers (my side 1pm) and going to bail out of there by 2, and spend the evening up north with just my dog and a roaring wood stove 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know it' the NAM, but it should have an idea 24-30 hrs out. Check out the NAM Wxnerds.com You can see 950mb which probably is a much better representation of where it would flash to snow. Basically the Monads to Lakes region N of KCON into Maine. Adjacent VT too. H7 fronto shifts to the whites, so south of there may have a little trouble...but you'll want to be probably H7-H6 fronto area for the good based on where the snow growth is. It will be track dependent. I have a feeling I’m going to be right in the middle of the deform axis. Should be fun for a while. I’ll be in mass for the holiday so will miss out on the fun at home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 minute ago, MarkO said: Screw people. I just changed plans from dinner in RI (wife's side dinner aroun 6pm) to Danvers (my side 1pm) and going to bail out of there by 2, and spend the evening up north with just my dog and a roaring wood stove Good luck with staying married. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 3 minutes ago, MarkO said: Screw people. I just changed plans from dinner in RI (wife's side dinner aroun 6pm) to Danvers (my side 1pm) and going to bail out of there by 2, and spend the evening up north with just my dog and a roaring wood stove Ya I floated that idea to the old lady about an hour ago, hard no. Guess I’ll stay coupled for at least one more storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Just now, CoastalWx said: Good luck with staying married. When it comes to skiing and snowstorms, she know's better, lol. It's the reason I built the cabin in the first place. Plus, she's on call, so she's heading back from RI after dinner. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 minute ago, MarkO said: When it comes to skiing and snowstorms, she know's better, lol. It's the reason I built the cabin in the first place. Plus, she's on call, so she's heading back from RI after dinner. That makes more sense then. Are you far from Sandwich Notch road? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27 Author Share Posted November 27 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good luck with staying married. Worked for me going on 42 yrs, Had to put your foot down early on and don't let up........... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Worked for me going on 42 yrs, Had to put your foot down early on and don't let up........... Would have to be a biggie. Ineedsnow is willing to get divorced and drive 30 miles for slush. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Will be spending the duration of this storm at 1100’ near Sunapee NH, we could rip pretty good here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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