New England Winter 2024-25 Bantering, Whining, and Sobbing Thread

[OceanStWx]

Good news @dendrite, we just ripped the temp sensor out of DAW altogether.

The part is on order, but rather than send out bad data we're opting for no data (which may actually speed up the delivery of the part).

[NorEastermass128]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Good news @dendrite, we just ripped the temp sensor out of DAW altogether.

The part is on order, but rather than send out bad data we're opting for no data (which may actually speed up the delivery of the part).

Hope the NWS has a prime membership for free two day delivery!

[OceanStWx]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Hope the NWS has a prime membership for free two day delivery!

Seems like a great way to have @dendrite hijack some spare parts for his backyard.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Good news @dendrite, we just ripped the temp sensor out of DAW altogether.

The part is on order, but rather than send out bad data we're opting for no data (which may actually speed up the delivery of the part).

See if they can do that for ORH and BDL too. We might need to wait for them to degrade a further half degree to be outside of the “calibration error” of 2F. I still can’t believe that’s the tolerance interval. Does anyone ever talk about that or do we just pretend that being off 1.5F is normal? 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

See if they can do that for ORH and BDL too. We might need to wait for them to degrade a further half degree to be outside of the “calibration error” of 2F. I still can’t believe that’s the tolerance interval. Does anyone ever talk about that or do we just pretend that being off 1.5F is normal? 

Honestly not very often. When it starts getting into bias correction, that's when it becomes a problem. Or if we start setting records with data we think is suspect.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Seems like a great way to have @dendrite hijack some spare parts for his backyard.

I’ll gladly intercept a truck with a LEDWI

[wxeyeNH]

11.2F Mostly sunny with light snow.   Winds are really cranking.

[ORH_wxman]

5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Honestly not very often. When it starts getting into bias correction, that's when it becomes a problem. Or if we start setting records with data we think is suspect.

Yeah ORH broke the 2001-2002 seasonal warm record in back to back winters these last two years with a bad thermometer. No other first order SNE site has either of those winters as top dog. They were torch winters, just not record-breaking but we will erroneously think they are going forward.

I think BOS set their warmest July on record in 2019 with an even worse thermometer. That was right before they corrected it but the record still stands today. 

 

[ncforecaster89]

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year.  
 

Hope the late January period produces an opportunity to blizzard chase in your neck of the woods.  Been almost three years at this point.  
 

That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”)?    
 

 

Winter Storm Event Classification:

Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful

Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate

Cat 3……12-18”……..Major

Cat 4……18-24”…….Historic

Cat 5……24+”……….Generational
 

[rgwp96]

1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year.  
 

Hope the late January period beproduces an opportunity to blizzard chase in your neck of the woods.  Been almost three years at this point.  
 

That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”).  
 

 

Winter Storm Event Classification:

Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful

Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate

Cat 3……12-18”……..Major

Cat 4……18-24”…….Historic

Cat 5……24+”……….Generational
 

Cat 4 and 5 should be more snow than that in the last 7 years I had  2 generational  storms than 

[ncforecaster89]

3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year.  
 

Hope the late January period produces an opportunity to blizzard chase in your neck of the woods.  Been almost three years at this point.  
 

That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”)?    
 

 

Winter Storm Event Classification:

Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful

Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate

Cat 3……12-18”……..Major

Cat 4……18-24”…….Historic

Cat 5……24+”……….Generational
 

Guessing I could use “Extreme” as a descriptor for Cat 4 and reserve “Historic” for the Cat 5 designation.  

[monadnocks]

2 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year.  
 

Hope the late January period produces an opportunity to blizzard chase in your neck of the woods.  Been almost three years at this point.  
 

That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”).  
 

 

Winter Storm Event Classification:

Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful

Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate

Cat 3……12-18”……..Major

Cat 4……18-24”…….Historic

Cat 5……24+”……….Generational
 

So, ignoring the recent no snow situation and looking at it from a 30+ year period of living in the Monadnock region (so my experience),

I'd revise that to

4-8" ordinary 

6-12" also ordinary but a pleasant bonus

12-18" impactful but other than school closing, not much else unless the power goes out 

18-24" impactful, power will probably go out for some reason 

24" - major

[ncforecaster89]

6 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

Cat 4 and 5 should be more snow than that in the last 7 years I had  2 generational  storms than 

I’m trying to devise a general East Coast snowstorm scale (1-5) that best fits the associated descriptors corresponding to widespread equivalent snowfall.  
 

The fact that SNE has a much greater propensity for major events as compared to the mid-Atlantic region makes it difficult. Might be best to separate them, regionally.  

[rgwp96]

16 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I’m trying to devise a general East Coast snowstorm scale (1-5) that best fits the associated descriptors corresponding to widespread equivalent snowfall.  
 

The fact that SNE has a much greater propensity for major events as compared to the mid-Atlantic region makes it difficult. Might be best to separate them, regionally.  

I’m in north jersey 

[OceanStWx]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah ORH broke the 2001-2002 seasonal warm record in back to back winters these last two years with a bad thermometer. No other first order SNE site has either of those winters as top dog. They were torch winters, just not record-breaking but we will erroneously think they are going forward.

I think BOS set their warmest July on record in 2019 with an even worse thermometer. That was right before they corrected it but the record still stands today. 

Pretty sure PWM did the same that summer. They just couldn't get cooler than 70 at night, but the thermometer was definitely reading about a degree too high.

[Lava Rock]

wow, this pic is nuts. Can't imagine. More pics: https://www.yahoo.com/news/los-angeles-wildfires-in-photos-multiple-blazes-rage-across-the-city-leaving-a-path-of-destruction-161821407.html

[NoCORH4L]

22 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

wow, this pic is nuts. Can't imagine. More pics: https://www.yahoo.com/news/los-angeles-wildfires-in-photos-multiple-blazes-rage-across-the-city-leaving-a-path-of-destruction-161821407.html

I hiked right in that area a few years ago, crazy to think of it all gone. TBH though it looked very crispy and brushy, primed for a fire.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

I hiked right in that area a few years ago, crazy to think of it all gone. TBH though it looked very crispy and brushy, primed for a fire.

The interesting thing about these CA fires is it's all driven by boom/bust rainfall patterns. Two years ago they got abundant rain, which drove fine fuel growth, which dried out quickly as they entered another short term drought this year. 

Another interesting aspect is that conditions were so extreme, that even prescribed burning of these fuels would likely not have mattered. 60-90 mph wind gusts will push a fire through any type of fuel.

[weatherwiz]

11 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Hi Everyone! Hope you all had a wonderful Holiday period and a good start to the new year.  
 

Hope the late January period produces an opportunity to blizzard chase in your neck of the woods.  Been almost three years at this point.  
 

That aside, I wanted to ask about your own thoughts on how you might classify each respective winter storm event based on snowfall totals over a widespread geographical area (minimum of 4-6”)?    
 

 

Winter Storm Event Classification:

Cat 1…….4-8”……….Impactful

Cat 2…….6-12”……..Moderate

Cat 3……12-18”……..Major

Cat 4……18-24”…….Historic

Cat 5……24+”……….Generational
 

Based on the last 4-5 years I would classify anything over 5'' as generational 

[ORH_wxman]

27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The interesting thing about these CA fires is it's all driven by boom/bust rainfall patterns. Two years ago they got abundant rain, which drove fine fuel growth, which dried out quickly as they entered another short term drought this year. 

Another interesting aspect is that conditions were so extreme, that even prescribed burning of these fuels would likely not have mattered. 60-90 mph wind gusts will push a fire through any type of fuel.

Yeah the magnitude of the winds really made a lot of other points moot. CA definitely has horrendous forest management which will continue to contribute to their fires, but I’m not sure how much difference it would’ve made in this instance. Maybe the fire doesn’t get quite as hot which helps on the margins for spreading, but with those winds, you were screwed regardless. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

The interesting thing about these CA fires is it's all driven by boom/bust rainfall patterns. Two years ago they got abundant rain, which drove fine fuel growth, which dried out quickly as they entered another short term drought this year. 

Another interesting aspect is that conditions were so extreme, that even prescribed burning of these fuels would likely not have mattered. 60-90 mph wind gusts will push a fire through any type of fuel.

77 years ago (Oct 47), the Kennebunkport fire torched an island 1/2 mile out to sea.  Winds were gusting into the 50s, not 60-90, and there were no slopes (obviously) to help foster the spread.  90 mph gusts might've threatened Lisbon (Portugal, not Maine). 
For another example of the power of wildfire, look into the destruction of Peshtigo, WI on Oct 8, 1871, a fire powered by the same winds that spread a more well-known blaze in Chicago.

[Typhoon Tip]

one upshot of a tacky capricious, imperialistic presumptive arrogance with this whole annex Greenland fuckery, is that if/and when the general trumpism idiocrasy finally defeats all intelligentsia of the wolrd... that will consequentially have meant removing the ice from the island, thus exposing the only invaluable piece of habitable land remaining in the scorched world - one that his 'brilliance' planned in order to save the top 1% ..

[Lexclone]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Based on the last 4-5 years I would classify anything over 5'' as generational 

[Layman]

The devastation from the CA fires is pretty insane.  Whole areas gone.

Here's a drone pic of an entirely burned neighborhood in Pacific Palisades:  https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1877136538229710997 

Apparently there's a bunch of arson going on.  Not sure if it's copycat/opportunistic stuff or the actual genesis.  Crazy to think people would do this:

https://x.com/BrooksWeather/status/1876946365802037569 

https://x.com/hubermanlab/status/1877236580676493784 

https://x.com/Right_Now_Views/status/1877217338883453075 

[das]

17 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I’m trying to devise a general East Coast snowstorm scale (1-5) that best fits the associated descriptors corresponding to widespread equivalent snowfall.  
 

The fact that SNE has a much greater propensity for major events as compared to the mid-Atlantic region makes it difficult. Might be best to separate them, regionally.  

Why wouldn’t you just use a modified version of the NESIS scale? It’s already firmly established and rooted in a codified and rigorous methodology.

It would give whatever you are trying to do some credibility since it’s based on existing best practice. 

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, das said:

Why wouldn’t you just use a modified version of the NESIS scale? It’s already firmly established and rooted in a codified and rigorous methodology.

It would give whatever you are trying to do some credibility since it’s based on existing best practice. 

He might want a 'personal' rating, though his post said "general".

My personal top 3, listed chronologically:
Feb 3-4, 1961   NESIS 4, 7th
Apr 7-8, 1982   NESIS 2, 43rd
Mar 14-15, 1984   NESIS <1

First one was in NNJ, ~24" (big wind) and set depth records for NJ - ~45" at my place, 50+ to NW.
Other 2 were in Northern Maine, with few people.  The April event had gusts to near 60 with giant drifts, the March storm (26.5", biggest I've seen) brought depth to 65", also tops.

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, Layman said:

The devastation from the CA fires is pretty insane.  Whole areas gone.

Here's a drone pic of an entirely burned neighborhood in Pacific Palisades:  https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1877136538229710997 

Apparently there's a bunch of arson going on.  Not sure if it's copycat/opportunistic stuff or the actual genesis.  Crazy to think people would do this:

https://x.com/BrooksWeather/status/1876946365802037569 

https://x.com/hubermanlab/status/1877236580676493784 

https://x.com/Right_Now_Views/status/1877217338883453075 

Another big one blew up NW of Palisades a bit ago.

[ncforecaster89]

10 hours ago, das said:

Why wouldn’t you just use a modified version of the NESIS scale? It’s already firmly established and rooted in a codified and rigorous methodology.

It would give whatever you are trying to do some credibility since it’s based on existing best practice. 

I guess I should clarify that I’m attempting to devise a scale (1-5) that I would personally use/reference to highlight my own forecasting expectations (from a historical perspective) for a given prospective winter storm.  
 

In other words, if I’m forecasting the prospect of a “major” winter storm for the East Coast, I want to be assured that it justifiably fits within a specific criterion, e.g., a category 3 might correspond to a projected snowfall of 18-24”.  

Unlike with tropical systems, I don’t have multiple decades of experience either forecasting or researching snowfall totals in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.  As such, I have been spending much of my off-season free-time researching the snowfall climatology for the aforementioned regions.  It’s a highly time-consuming and exhaustive process, but I’m most concerned with accuracy above all else in these type of endeavors.   
 

All that said, my initial post herein was meant to solicit feedback and opinions from those who are far more experienced and knowledgeable by virtue of actually living in the regions whereby I’m working to devise the aforesaid scale.   

[ncforecaster89]

10 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

I guess I should clarify that I’m attempting to devise a scale (1-5) that I would personally use/reference to highlight my own forecasting expectations (from a historical perspective) for a given prospective winter storm.  
 

In other words, if I’m forecasting the prospect of a “major” winter storm for the East Coast, I want to be assured that it justifiably fits within a specific criterion, e.g., a category 3 might correspond to a projected snowfall of 18-24”.  

Unlike with tropical systems, I don’t have multiple decades of experience either forecasting or researching snowfall totals in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.  As such, I have been spending much of my off-season free-time researching the snowfall climatology for the aforementioned regions.  It’s a highly time-consuming and exhaustive process, but I’m most concerned with accuracy above all else in these type of endeavors.   
 

All that said, my initial post herein was meant to solicit feedback and opinions from those who are far more experienced and knowledgeable by virtue of actually living in the regions whereby I’m working to devise the aforesaid scale.   

The most difficult aspect of such a project I’m encountering, or struggling with, relates to how best to compensate for the large disparities in snowfall totals between coastal cities and those more into the interior localities. This is especially true as most within the general public are naturally most concerned with what occurs in their own back yard, quite literally.  What one might consider a “major” event at the coast could be quite different to another further inland…which is why I’m looking to devise a scale more refined than say, NESIS.  

[amarshall]

Friend in DFW area



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