December 2024 temperature forecast contest and annual winter snowfall contest

[Roger Smith]

Predict temp anomalies for nine locations (F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

Deadline is 06z Dec 1st 

By Dec 10, post snowfall predictions (include snow already reported)

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

(also note, ne-us snowfall contest off site, at following location, Dec 1 deadline seasonal (Dec - mar only) also storm contests in season. 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

1.0         1.0         0.5         0.5      1.0        1.5         0.5      1.0         0.5

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

20"      25"      30"      35"      30"    106"    45"      3"     100"

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.6         0.5        0.2        0.2       0.7      1.0          0.2      0.9        0.1

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

17”       21”       28”       26”      24”    102”     51”       4”    84”

[so_whats_happening]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-.8        -.6         -1            +1        +.8      +1.2      +1.6     +2.2     +.8

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

13"       19"      35"       29"     31"     98"      39"      3"      81"

 

[Tom]

sitting here, drinking my beer listening to Christmas music......I so want to go huge off the charts for snowfall maybe wish casting, we are due it is time for wishes to come true, every generation needs that one storm...I have been lucky 78, 83, 96 and 2010 I say Jan 2025 says hold my beer.  Done with my hype back tomorrow with my calls, for now just cheers. 

Quote

 

 

[wxallannj]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-0.7       -1.0       -1.2       -0.6     +1.4     +1.8      +2.1      +1.8       +2.4

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

25"      30"      34"      32"      35"    94"    40"      4"        88"

[donsutherland1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.0        -0.5     -0.3        1.2        0.2      1.7         3.6      3.6        4.4

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

8.0      16.5    35.0     40.0    45.0    95.0     55.0    8.0     75.0

[Tom]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-1.2       -1.5       -1.5      -1.1        -0.8      +0.5      +1.7     +1.9       +2.1

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _    DTW _    BuF __  DEN _   SEA _      BTV

26.2"   38.1"   42.4"    37.6"    42.3"    102.6"    57.7"     6.4"       83.4"

[RodneyS]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

-3.7      -3.2      -3.2        -2.5     -3.6      -1.5       2.9       2.6        1.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BuF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

5.8      22.0    38.5     42.5    45.0    99.0     58.0    9.5     85.0

[Rjay]

DCA  +1.5

NYC. +1.5

BOS. +1.5

ORD +1.5

ATL +1.0

IAH +2.0

DEN +4.0

PHX +4.0

SEA +4.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DCA 4"

NYC 12"

BOS 50"

ORD  29"

DTW 35"

BUF 100"

DEN 60"

SEA 6"

BTV 100"

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

-2.2 _ -2.4 _ -1.5 __ -3.0 _ 0.0 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ -0.2

13.5 _ 32.0 _ 47.0 __ 50.6 _52.2_130.0 _ 89.0_1.5 _ 109.3

[Stormchaserchuck1]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

0.8        0.8         0.4         1.1      2.0       2.0       4.5      3.8         0.9

[wxdude64]

DCA:  -1.1

NYC:  -1.5

BOS:  -0.7

ORD:  -0.4

ATL:  -0.3

IAH:  +0.6

DEN:  +0.6

PHX:  +1.4

SEA:  -0.4

DCA:  18.8

NYC:  36.2

BOS:  44.3

ORD:  37.8

DTW:  41.3

BUF:  122.9

DEN:  71.2

SEA:  7.4

BTV:  102.7 

[bkviking]

 

DCA  -0.5

NYC. 0.7

BOS. -2.0

ORD +02

ATL +0.5

IAH +2.2

DEN +4.0

PHX +4.0

SEA +3.2
 

 

DCA 12”

NYC 27”

BOS 44”

ORD  30”

DTW 28

BUF 98”

DEN 55”

SEA 14”

BTV 100"

 

 

 

•  
•  
• Quote

 

[Roger Smith]

 

Table of forecasts for December 2024

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 

RJay _____________________________+1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +1.0 _ +2.0 __ +4.0 _ +4.0 _ +4.0

Scotty Lightning _________________ +1.0 _ +1.0 _ +0.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 __ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +0.5

StormchaserChuck _______________+0.8 _ +0.8 _+0.4 ___+1.1 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 __+4.5 _ +3.8 _+0.9

hudsonvalley21 __________________ +0.6 _ +0.5 _ +0.2 __+0.2 _ +0.7 _ +1.0 __+0.2 _ +0.9 _ +0.1

___ Normal _______________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

Don Sutherland1 __________________ 0.0 _ -0.5 _ -0.3 ___ +1.2 _ +0.2 _ +1.7 ___+3.6 _ +3.6 _ +4.4

BKViking _________________________ -0.5 _ +0.7 _ -2.0 ___+0.2 _ +0.5 _ +2.2 ___+4.0 _+4.0 _+3.2

___ Consensus __________________ -0.6 _ -0.5 _ -0.8 ___+0.2 _+0.4 _ +1.4 __ +1.9 _ +2.4 _+1.0

wxallannj ________________________ -0.7 _ -1.0 _ -1.2 ____ -0.6 _ +1.4 _ +1.8 ___ +2.1 _ +1.8 _ +2.4

so_whats_happening ____________ -0.8 _ -0.6 _ -1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +0.8 _ +1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +0.8

wxdude64 _______________________ -1.1 __-1.5 __-0.7 ___ -0.4 _ -0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +0.6 _ +1.4 _ -0.4

Tom ______________________________-1.2 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 ____ -1.1 __ -0.8 _ +0.5 ___ +1.7 _ +1.9 _ +2.1

Roger Smith ______________________-2.2 _ -2.4 _ -1.5 ___ -3.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +3.5 _ -0.2

RodneyS _________________________ -3.7 _ -3.2 _-3.2 ___ -2.5 _ -3.6 _ -1.5 ____ +2.9 _ +2.6 _ +1.1

___________________________

Persistence (Nov 2024) _________ +5.3 _ +3.4 _+4.2 ___+4.9 _+5.4 _+7.3 ____-1.2 _ -1.0 _ -0.5

highest and lowest forecasts are color coded ... Normal is lower than all forecasts for DEN and PHX

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts for snowfall winter 2024-2025

... listed in order of total snowfall predicted ...

 

FORECASTER ______________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ___ DEN _SEA _BTV ___ TOTAL

Roger Smith ________________13.5_ 32.0_ 47.0 ___ 50.6_ 52.2_ 130.0 ___ 89.0_ 1.5_109.3 ___ 525.1

wxdude64 _________________ 18.8_ 36.2_ 44.3 ___ 37.8_ 41.3_ 122.9 ___ 71.2_ 7.4 _102.7 ___ 482.6

Tom ________________________26.2_ 38.1_ 42.4 ___ 37.6_ 42.3_ 102.6 ___ 57.7_ 6.4__83.4 ___ 436.7

 

___ Normal 1991-2020 _____13.7_ 29.8_ 49.2 ___38.4 _45.0__95.4 ___ 49.0_ 6.3__87.5 ___ 414.3

BKViking ___________________12.0_ 27.0_ 44.0 ___ 30.0_ 28.0__ 98.0 ___ 55.0_14.0_ 100.0 ___ 408.0

RodneyS ____________________5.8_ 22.0_ 38.5 ___ 42.5_ 45.0__ 99.0 ___ 58.0_ 9.5__85.0 ___ 405.5

___ Consensus ____________14.8_ 23.6_ 34.8 __ 35.0_ 36.7 _ 104.2 __ 57.4 _ 5.8 _ 91.7 ___ 404.0

RJay _______________________ 4.0_ 12.0 _ 50.0 ___ 29.0_ 35.0_ 100.0 ___ 60.0_ 6.0_ 100.0 ___ 396.0

Scotty Lightning ___________20.0_ 25.0_ 30.0___ 35.0_ 30.0_ 106.0 ___ 45.0 _ 3.0_ 100.0 ___ 394.0

wxallannj __________________25.0_ 30.0_ 34.0 ___32.0_ 35.0__ 94.0 ___ 40.0_ 4.0__ 88.0 ___ 382.0

Don Sutherland1 ___________ 8.0_ 16.5_ 35.0 ___ 40.0_ 45.0__ 95.0 ___ 55.0_ 8.0__ 75.0 ___ 377.5

hudsonvalley21 ____________17.0_ 21.0_ 28.0 ___ 26.0_ 24.0_ 102.0 ___ 51.0 _ 4.0__ 84.0 ___ 357.0

so_whats_happening ______13.0_ 19.0_ 35.0 ___ 29.0_ 31.0__ 98.0 ___ 39.0 _ 3.0__ 81.0 ___ 348.0

 

___________________________

Persistence (2023-2024) ___ 8.0__ 7.5__ 9.8 ___ 22.2_ 23.5__ 71.3 ___ 44.6_ 0.3__ 60.8 ___ 248.0

_________________________

To date _____ (Dec 24) _______ 0.1 __ 2.8 __5.7 ____ 5.3 _ 5.4 __ 23.2 ____ 23.3 __ 0.0 __16.6 ____ 82.4

(contest incl all seasonal snow)

 

1991-2020 normals from NWS website, DEN is Stapleton (since new airport did not exist all years of period)

Consensus does not incl 1991-2020 or Persistence (last winter's contest finals). It is average of eleven forecasts.

 

[so_whats_happening]

Nice call on the warmer DEN call Stormchaserchuck. Also didn't expect that IAH would get quite as warm as it has been.