CoastalWx Posted Friday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:30 PM Amped and hugging but looks like a biggun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Dec 92! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:32 PM Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Dec 92! For Quebec City 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Friday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:33 PM This could pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Friday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:34 PM Rain to Maine, Snow in Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:37 PM 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Rain to Maine, Snow in Virginia. Just laughing at the 1035 high to the north. Let’s do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:37 PM Looking fujiwara…lets see whats next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Friday at 04:38 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:38 PM The ridge spike around 12/22 is really strong. I feel like that is the one with the higher end potential. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Friday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:39 PM What in the actual faq. Theres what a 240 storm will do. We will not see that evolution in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Friday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:39 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just laughing at the 1035 high to the north. Let’s do it. That would be pretty comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Friday at 04:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:40 PM 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The ridge spike around 12/22 is really strong. I feel like that is the one with the higher end potential. Also looks like you have the system going negatively tilted down into Alabama/Georgia...huge change from what we've typically been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Friday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:46 PM 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For Quebec City Awaiting weenishine’s d10 snow map now… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Friday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:47 PM Canadian tries for the 12/22 system too but comes in a bit shallower with the shortwave so it’s like a clipper/redeveloper south of New England. Lot of moving parts between 12/19-12/22. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Friday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:48 PM Again, big ridge over NewFoundie is not what you want to see for SNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Friday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:48 PM Some random thoughts…. I’ve been googling vacations to Hawaii of late. ineedsnow has gone from fun to borderline insufferable. Life is actually more enjoyable when I’m not impeded by snow and/or obsessing about it. See you all at 18z… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Friday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:52 PM Awaiting weenishine’s d10 snow map now…Speak it into existence and I shall post (wasn't gonna do it but you just had to say something)Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:54 PM 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Again, big ridge over NewFoundie is not what you want to see for SNE. we have had a similar longwave pattern for Jan 2022 and Jan 2014. tall ridge over the Pac NW / NW Rockies, deep trough with TPV interaction into the OH Valley, and a WAR pushing into Nova Scotia. not calling for a MECS or anything but there are similarities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:56 PM The GFS just goes nuclear and digs for oil while the original anafrontal s/w zips out of here and can't force something like a 50/50 low for confluence. The ridge amplification is needed regardless. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Friday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 04:58 PM 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we have had a similar longwave pattern for Jan 2022 and Jan 2014. tall ridge over the Pac NW / NW Rockies, deep trough with TPV interaction into the OH Valley, and a WAR pushing into Nova Scotia. not calling for a MECS or anything but there are similarities I just like to see low heights over the maritimes for the coastal plain. Just gives more room for error. Otherwise, it is highly dependent on timing and shortwave interaction. Where Anything that digs deep gets slung inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Canadian tries to tease on both. Original low on the 19th becomes a beast offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:01 PM 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I just like to see low heights over the maritimes for the coastal plain. Just gives more room for error. Otherwise, it is highly dependent on timing and shortwave interaction. Where Anything that digs deep gets slung inland. that is true, I generally agree... it has been done before, though. i would kinda argue that you want a bit of a WAR. things can become suppressed if you have a massive PNA ridge alongside a large 50/50, especially up by you guys. that's often how you get the NYC-DC specials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Friday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:04 PM Just make this trackable at least for a couple days before Freak’s barrage of waist deep pics. Scooter family’s Christmas is in jeopardy regardless… 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:05 PM 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The GFS just goes nuclear and digs for oil while the original anafrontal s/w zips out of here and can't force something like a 50/50 low for confluence. The ridge amplification is needed regardless. verbatim it's a version of late Feb 2010 that even fucks over NYC (sorry) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Friday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:05 PM 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that is true, I generally agree... it has been done before, though. i would kinda argue that you want a bit of a WAR. things can become suppressed if you have a massive PNA ridge alongside a large 50/50, especially up by you guys. that's often how you get the NYC-DC specials Yea. Not looking for a huge 50/50 though. Just something there that can keep the flow more along the plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:08 PM 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Canadian tries for the 12/22 system too but comes in a bit shallower with the shortwave so it’s like a clipper/redeveloper south of New England. Lot of moving parts between 12/19-12/22. ggem's classic wave space negative interference. gfs looks unrealistic having both the way it conserves them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:20 PM i posted this in the other thread but i encourage those with real curiosity to have a look. the 00z eps evolution shows at least one plausible result where it ends up with better 500 mb phasing of these these two contentious wave spaces. i don't believe the gfs handling is very realistic - not a knock on the model at 180 hours ...no. but the lead wave is moving too fast in the flow.. if the x coordinate velocity exceeds the y field too much, bipass occurs. not sure the is wholesale right. i've noted in the past that the gfs has a velocity bias ( which is masked by a flow that is also that way ...making it difficult to parse out which is which...) the eps has a slower x coordinate velocity ( wave motion...), so it allows the waves to harmonize/coalesce near pa in that solution. the member mean being positioned over ne ny is prooobably more owing to lack of lower cold but details details 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Friday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:49 PM Jerry will be psyched to know the 12z Euro steals ineedsnow's Sunday/Monday snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 06:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:14 PM Sneaky cold day here. Still at 31.4° at 1:15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:21 PM looks like the 12z eps is buckin' for a marginal mixy deal around the 14th ...weak, but 850's are 0c ish with a wave coming through in this mean edit, never mind ...this was my usual idiocy with dates working against me... it's in fact the zygote circulation for the 20th i was looking at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 06:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:40 PM if all other excitement fails at least the eps has a tc moving into new orleans at d9.5 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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