December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[George001]

From @SnowLover22 on the Mid Atlantic forum:

“PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.”

 

…. That’s a significant rise from Oct-Dec. It’s still negative enough it won’t save Dec and probably Jan too, but this could be a big deal come Feb-Mar if it keeps rising. 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, cut said:

93 was pretty epic as I recall. That's the year NYC closed the bridges for de-icing on several occasions. I think a pedestrian died from falling ice on a bridge. Snow on the ground for weeks IIRC.

Yeah, 92-93 and 93-94 were both great, 94-95 sucked big time but a great rebound for 95-96 was the best.

[Prismshine Productions]

From [mention=15242]SnowLover22[/mention] on the Mid Atlantic forum:
“PDO trending upwards the first half of December. [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] what is your target value out of curosity.
If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.”
 
…. That’s a significant rise from Oct-Dec. It’s still negative enough it won’t save Dec and probably Jan too, but this could be a big deal come Feb-Mar if it keeps rising. 

How big a deal, we lose the +PNA?

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[mreaves]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

You just knew after the beautiful dry fall a fuckening was headed our way.

I love the term fuckening. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah man, we recorded 2.29” rainfall at Mtn Ops Center but all of it was a cold rain.

The Mansfield Stake went from 38” fluffy to 33” water injected glacial pack.  Even in the base area, the loss was probably even less as it was colder wedged in there.

Down at my place we are at 6” from 12”. I thought it was going to be smoked.

Conditions are a bit rougher than they were, but even still, some low angle natural snow terrain was back open, which means it’s not terrible, ha ha.

The big thing here was a 500 vertical foot washout on Gondolier.  These seem to happen in a different place each Dec now when we get the big water amounts.  This was the largest yet and requires excavators to fix.  These channels go deep into the ground.  The power of water is crazy.

 

Will they be able to fill that with snow for the winter?  I’ve seen groomers make snowmobile trails out of terrain you can barely walk on but ski trails might be different. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Will they be able to fill that with snow for the winter?  I’ve seen groomers make snowmobile trails out of terrain you can barely walk on but ski trails might be different. 

Yeah, the good thing about Stowe is that when stuff like this happens, there are resources to throw at it quickly.  There were winch cats out there working earlier and the local heavy equipment contractor is fast acting… excavators needed.

Roughed in, the trail will just need a good snowmaking run.  Frozen QPF will fix it.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

30 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I love the term fuckening. 

Hopefully this winter we don't get the cosmic dongening.  (A nod to @Typhoon Tip there)  

[bwt3650]

I love the term fuckening. 

Fuckery was always one of my favorites, but I will def add fuckening to my arsenal


.

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully this winter we don't get the cosmic dongening.  (A nod to @Typhoon Tip there)  

I think the better term might be cosmic dildoing in that context.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

From @SnowLover22 on the Mid Atlantic forum:

“PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise.”

 

…. That’s a significant rise from Oct-Dec. It’s still negative enough it won’t save Dec and probably Jan too, but this could be a big deal come Feb-Mar if it keeps rising. 

PDO doesn't really drive the pattern...it feeds back, especially when extreme...but its more a reflection of the predominate state of the atmosphere. 

[dmcginvt]

52 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Will they be able to fill that with snow for the winter?  I’ve seen groomers make snowmobile trails out of terrain you can barely walk on but ski trails might be different. 

Wow, worked in the race dept running the nastar course for years before they nixed it.  Needless to say I know that trail well.  Im interested in the path water takes and that picture is funny to me because that a part of the trail that bumps up when not groomed.  Not sure of the correlation there but interesting/  

[rclab]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully this winter we don't get the cosmic dongening.  (A nod to @Typhoon Tip there)  

 

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think the better term might be cosmic dildoing in that context.  

Within the context of both it would be just our luck. As always ….

 

[CoastalWx]

Despite the long wave pattern, we have some timing differences causing some meh solutions from cutters to whiffs. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Nothing to look forward to as was told to Ginx 

[Damage In Tolland]

When you log on and there’s no posts from Anthony with model runs you know it’s over 

[dendrite]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Despite the long wave pattern, we have some timing differences causing some meh solutions from cutters to whiffs. 

At least the gfs is bringing some snow to Hatteras.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When you log on and there’s no posts from Anthony with model runs you know it’s over 

This is true

Horrible overnight runs

[SouthCoastMA]

Day 10-12 OP runs will always disappoint 

[Prismshine Productions]

Some here would ragequit on one winter in the South...

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[WinterWolf]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Nothing to look forward to as was told to Ginx 

Lol…the models couldn’t get your winds right at 12 hrs(literally the day of).  But you worry about modeling at 7-8 days.   Whatever you’re looking for will return in future runs, bet on it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This is true

Horrible overnight runs

It’s like clock work . And now.. more Rainers 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hopefully this winter we don't get the cosmic dongening.  (A nod to @Typhoon Tip there)  

It’s already happening. The it looks great at h5 vibes…

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s like clock work . And now.. more Rainers 

IneedSnow and Chief Wiggum are the two you look for.

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

IneedSnow and Chief Wiggum are the two you look for.

last nights runs were junk.. on to 12z 

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s like clock work . And now.. more Rainers 

Cheer up buttercup! Things will change as they always do. Stop taking what you see 10 days out as a forecast. 

We'll get our Winter!!

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Cheer up buttercup! Things will change as they always do. Stop taking what you see 10 days out as a forecast. 

We'll get our Winter!!

Doubtful 

[mreaves]

57 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Some here would ragequit on one winter in the South...

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I guess I wouldn't expect snow if I lived there?  I mean, my family is from SW Georgia.  I don't think I would be all that upset if I was visiting and there wasn't snow.

[SnoSki14]

Wow what a global blowtorch on the ensembles. No cold to be found anywhere. 

At least everyone's f*cked this winter

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EPS was a disaster with the pig in Alaska starting to show at the tail end.. Amazing flip-flopping on 00z and 12z .. Wake up to same old December from 00z , then all weenies rejoice at 12z for several days now.. Although all guidance does agree on a Nation wide torch after Christmas Day and some cold leading up to Christmas. Non-Scientific opinion is the general 00z theme will end up winning out and we wait til well after New Years...

[Lava Rock]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s like clock work . And now.. more Rainers 

you should go over to electric blue for lunch and relax