December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[DavisStraight]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My favorite clipper of all time happened in DC some years ago where we just kept juicing on the models up through game time and had like 20° powder falling all day. The little clipper that did. I miss those. 

I remember one year we had a clipper diving south and stalled off of Long Island, you'd have to ask Will the storm, I'm sure he remembers.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Very active GFS run

Good to see

[weathafella]

I think the all time clipper redeveloped is 2/6/78.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weathafella said:

I think the all time clipper redeveloped is 2/6/78.

You missed it though.  I was 10 a month later…it was spectacular. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

December update.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/december-appears-poised-to-evolve.html

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

You missed it though.  I was 10 a month later…it was spectacular. 

I got to Boston a month later and snow was still deep.  We got an 8 incher and everyone said ho hum.   

[HIPPYVALLEY]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December update.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/december-appears-poised-to-evolve.html

Fantastic read. Thanks.

[TheMainer]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December update.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/december-appears-poised-to-evolve.html

Since I'm still learning, you're thinking a return to normal to above normal temps towards the 2nd half of December after the cold period the first two weeks? Just want to make sure I don't get my hopes up haha. 

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, TheMainer said:

Since I'm still learning, you're thinking a return to normal to above normal temps towards the 2nd half of December after the cold period the first two weeks? Just want to make sure I don't get my hopes up haha. 

A word of advice,  i learned long ago not to get my hopes up 2 weeks out and beyond.  It's great to look at patterns however keep your expectations in check

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December update.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/december-appears-poised-to-evolve.html

It's going to be challenging keeping a ridge out west with the Pacific jet as strong as it is. Something like the 6z GFS Op is likely. 

Will be a constant battle this winter so we have to maximize our chances when the ridge out west flexes. 

You'd need a full scale change of the PDO for a 13-15 winter pattern sustained western ridge. 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to be challenging keeping a ridge out west with the Pacific jet as strong as it is. Something like the 6z GFS Op is likely. 

Will be a constant battle this winter so we have to maximize our chances when the ridge out west flexes. 

You'd need a full scale change of the PDO for a 13-15 winter pattern sustained western ridge. 

Good post except the op run.  Follow the ensembles. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's going to be challenging keeping a ridge out west with the Pacific jet as strong as it is. Something like the 6z GFS Op is likely. 

Will be a constant battle this winter so we have to maximize our chances when the ridge out west flexes. 

You'd need a full scale change of the PDO for a 13-15 winter pattern sustained western ridge. 

I could see it lasting through the second week, but I'm with you... December may yet end up above average....I had +3 to +5F for December and we still could hit the lower end of that.

I do think a large scale shift in the Pacific is imminent and defintely tried to blend that into the December discourse.

These seconday nadirs during a Pacific Cold Phase usually signal the beginning of the end of the long term -PDO....the last strong El Nino before the 2023-2024 event that exhibited a great deal of cool ENSO proclivities was 1972-1973, which was also during the seconday cold phase nadir and was a followed by the longer term phase switch a few years later. The only other cool ENSO tobe preceeded by this strong of a WWB during the month of November was 1998, and this instance that Pacific disharmony marked a transition from warm to cold phase. This mismatching and flux in the tropics is the beginning of the end of this era as we know it. It will be history by the turn of the decade as sure as the word stein will vanish from Kev's lexicon after the first major snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, TheMainer said:

Since I'm still learning, you're thinking a return to normal to above normal temps towards the 2nd half of December after the cold period the first two weeks? Just want to make sure I don't get my hopes up haha. 

Pretty much....but I still suspect we see another nice stretch in January.

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro has clipper for 12/4 and the GEFS has some support there even if the OP doesn’t. Mentioned this to Ray earlier in this thread that the 12/4-12/6 period has some decent meridional flow so while a large ticket event is unlikely until post-12/6, there’s def a chance for something northern stream before that…mostly likely a clipper but if you dig it enough it can turn into a redeveloper/Miller B-east type system. 
 

Lots of cold around during that window too so ptype issues would be minimized. 

I cited 12/7 as the first larger ticket potential in my work last night, but that is just derived from a cursory glance at the ensemble suites...certainly could be off nby a day or two.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2008-2009 looks like a primo ENSO analog to me...even if this event does remain a smidge weaker.

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty much....but I still suspect we see another nice stretch in January.

Fwiw, aseveral days ago the Cfs2 started looking like a Niño February with at or below temps and AN precip.

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, aseveral days ago the Cfs2 started like a Niño February with at or below temps and AN precip.

The CFS is a joke. It insisted on a huge blowtorch December for months on end then does a complete 180 the last week. Terrible model 

[Go Kart Mozart]

If the MJO projections are accurate (a big if, granted), maybe a 10 day warm up mid-month then fun and games begin again around Christmas.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS is a joke. It insisted on a huge blowtorch December for months on end then does a complete 180 the last week. Terrible model 

Well, it may just be failing on the mismatch period that deviates from ENSO....we saw that last year when seasonal guidance tried to model a more classic warm ENSO look, but was more accurate with respect to other parts of the season.

I do not expect February to roast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

If the MJO projections are accurate (a big if, granted), maybe a 10 day warm up mid-month then fun and games begin again around Christmas.

I could def. see that, but we need to see how coherent that MJO impulse is as it tries to enter phase 6.

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CFS is a joke. It insisted on a huge blowtorch December for months on end then does a complete 180 the last week. Terrible model 

Like flies on a rib roast.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Like flies on a rib roast.

You were so sure December was going to roast lol

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could def. see that, but we need to see how coherent that MJO impulse is as it tries to enter phase 6.

Kind of suppressed right now so other factors driving the bus. I do like seeing it go into more favorable pages even if weaker later in the month.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely signs of more action after the 5th, and especially 7th on. 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of suppressed right now so other factors driving the bus. I do like seeing it go into more favorable pages even if weaker later in the month.

MJO will still try to exert a warming influence but agree that other factors are in play too. 

EPS looking better than GEFS right now, less MJO influence 

[CoastalWx]

This is a very stable look. Maybe subtle signs it relaxes towards the end of the 11-15 day, but that would also mean more storm chances.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of suppressed right now so other factors driving the bus. I do like seeing it go into more favorable pages even if weaker later in the month.

Not really sure how much of an influence the MJO will have moving through December really, the MJO signal doesn't appear overly strong and like you said, other factors driving the bus now and will probably outweigh the MJO signal.

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not really sure how much of an influence the MJO will have moving through December really, the MJO signal doesn't appear overly strong and like you said, other factors driving the bus now and will probably outweigh the MJO signal.

the lingering +AAM from the borderline super Nino last year seems to be having more of an impact

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a very stable look. Maybe subtle signs it relaxes towards the end of the 11-15 day, but that would also mean more storm chances.

The fear has been cold/dry first week with a little baby clipper or two second week and then when something bigger brews mid month, the pattern is too relaxed and you what happens… rainers for the holidays.