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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

FXWX

By FXWX,
in New England

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Imagine a TV met tossing every single forecasting tool and going full wolf mode. Just a map of question marks and crosses…

But that’s not what I mean, and you know that.  In long range what I mean is you can make a call, but ultimately you just don’t know what could happen …Will just said that, and so did John.  We kid…but ultimately it’s just a guess at two weeks out. 

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Lava Rock
Lava Rock

Friend sent me this as they were just leaving bretton woods Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

alex
alex

Got home to some light snow but really beautiful scenery. Trees are plastered. About 7” at the stake (can’t see it too well)  

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

I enjoy the forecasting part of the hobby. That’s the difference between being a captain obvious poster vs making a reasonable guess of the future. 
 

I say captain obvious because of course “we don’t know” the future but that doesn’t or shouldn’t stop us from trying to predict it. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Kid praying that the ensembles look good…or daddy gets upset and breaks things.

Poor kid thinks Greta took his winter away, especially seeing a FB memory of him measuring snow 7 years ago. He's gone too.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I enjoy the forecasting part of the hobby. That’s the difference between being a captain obvious poster vs making a reasonable guess of the future. 
 

I say captain obvious because of course “we don’t know” the future but that doesn’t or shouldn’t stop us from trying to predict it. 

But nobody ever said that Luke. I certainly didn’t.  I push back when folks say at 3-4 weeks out, that there won’t be any thing wintry coming in that time frame ..especially when ensembles and weeklies are obviously in a very volatile state currently.  I certainly do appreciate a call one way or the other, and don’t have an issue with that.  And think those that try to predict it, should absolutely do so. But ultimately…as Will just intimated…. A signal is certainly there, but we have to wait and see.  
 

If you were a TV met, would you say on 12/10, that there won’t be any wintry weather until after the new year?  You could be right? But I wouldn’t say that at this stage if I was an On camera MET….not with what we’ve been seeing the last few days.  
 

My call…I think a wintry event is quite possible the last 7-10 days of December.  That’s my gut call at the moment. 

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Go Kart Mozart

Go Kart Mozart

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Has the EC-AI shown any skill yet? That's the kinda evolution one could hope for if you don't want a grinch pattern around Christmas. 

So glad you asked.  I have been following it closely since the early fall, and so far, it is the best model.  Granted, my analysis is for our little area only, and is entirely empirical.  Here is a little anecdotal example:

I am also active on a Notre Dame football board, where I have installed myself as the weather nerd in-chief.  About 5 days ago, it appeared likely that we would be hosting Alabama on the 20th.  Of course, I went to the maps hoping for the most miserable cold possible for northern Indiana in December.  At that time, gfs and euro showed a nationwide zonal flow, with temps far above normal for SBN.  Euro AI on the other hand, had deep winter.  I am not ready to spike the ball, since we are only on the 15 yard line, but AI has held fairly steady while the others are showing signs of capitulation.  We'll see what happens!

I am ready to make this prediction:  Next year at this time we will all be going to the AI models first...with occasional references to the "legacy models".

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

So glad you asked.  I have been following it closely since the early fall, and so far, it is the best model.  Granted, my analysis is for our little area only, and is entirely empirical.  Here is a little anecdotal example:

I am also active on a Notre Dame football board, where I have installed myself as the weather nerd in-chief.  About 5 days ago, it appeared likely that we would be hosting Alabama on the 20th.  Of course, I went to the maps hoping for the most miserable cold possible for northern Indiana in December.  At that time, gfs and euro showed a nationwide zonal flow, with temps far above normal for SBN.  Euro AI on the other hand, had deep winter.  I am not ready to spike the ball, since we are only on the 15 yard line, but AI has held fairly steady while the others are showing signs of capitulation.  We'll see what happens!

I am ready to make this prediction:  Next year at this time we will all be going to the AI models first...with occasional references to the "legacy models".

Where do you access those models?

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

But nobody ever said that Luke. I certainly didn’t.  I push back when folks say at 3-4 weeks out, that there won’t be any thing wintry coming in that time frame ..especially when ensembles and weeklies are obviously in a very volatile state currently.  I certainly do appreciate a call one way or the other, and don’t have an issue with that.  And think those that try to predict it, should absolutely do so. But ultimately…as Will just intimated…. A signal is certainly there, but we have to wait and see.  
 

If you were a TV met, would you say on 12/10, that there won’t be any wintry weather until after the new year?  You could be right? But I wouldn’t say that at this stage if I was an On camera MET….not with what we’ve been seeing the last few days.  
 

My call…I think a wintry event is quite possible the last 7-10 days of December.  That’s my gut call at the moment. 

There you go. Let your hair down. You’re coming around…

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TheBudMan

TheBudMan

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm right on the NH border in Methuen.

I'll be in the hospital from Jan 3 through like the 7th, so book one then, too.

 

My oldest was born during a NorEaster Jan 3 2003.  I'm sure @ORH_wxman can go into great detail about the specifics of that storm.  Will is a machine.    

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Do that and it's almost exactly average (29/12 for 12/24) here.  I was looking for a repeat of the week following Christmas 2017, a cold snap worthy of the St. John Valley.

I was up in the St John Valley that week…drove home on New Year’s Eve day, and it was literally the same temp when I got home in CT, as it was when I left St Agatha, ME.  Brutal cold that week/day when got home to CT. 

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klw

klw

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Christmas in London. 

Not true, I have seen every Netflix and Hallmark movie set in the UK, all 927 of them.  It always snows in London for Christmas- even in the years when the trees still are fully leafed out and green.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Here to keep the morale up one post at a time, cheers mate

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I remember when I too used to wonder why being so positive was always frowned upon. I used to react and get bothered when someone would make a sny remark already sarcastic reply. I don't anymore. I also get some of the frustration that other s get as well. But I will tell you is is, if we get a good stretch of some good old winter, everyone will be on board and all the posts will be a good one's.

For now, it's just the same old, same old. Trying to find the best crumb on the floor...lol 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I remember when I too used to wonder why being so positive was always frowned upon. I used to react and get bothered when someone would make a sny remark already sarcastic reply. I don't anymore. I also get some of the frustration that other s get as well. But I will tell you is is, if we get a good stretch of some good old winter, everyone will be on board and all the posts will be a good one's.

For now, it's just the same old, same old. Trying to find the best crumb on the floor...lol 

Absolutely. People can post what they want. Good stretches are great in here. Man it's been awhile for that.

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