December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[MJO812]

I'm off Christmas week and New Years week. A big snowstorm during my weeks off would be nice.

I will pray 

[Lava Rock]

3" overnight. Bring on the monsoon

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What happens when January shits itself in phase 5?

Don't think it will, but if it does, oh well....I had decent snowfall in January 2022 and last January I had one of the best events of my life. I expect a shitty season overall, but just going to take whatever I can get.

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't think it will, but if it does, oh well....I had decent snowfall in January 2022 and last year I had one of the best events of my life. I expect a shitty season overall, but just going to take whatever I can get.

Why does it keep moving slow or stalling in the warm phases? We need it to stall in the cold phases.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Why does it keep moving slow or stalling in the warm phases? We need it to stall in the cold phases.

Because of the west Pacific, but its seems to have slackened a bit.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm off Christmas week and New Years week. A big snowstorm during my weeks off would be nice.

I will pray 

..you should consider re-scheduling your vacation time........

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Go a decade without a normal snowfall season.....I guess I am king of the ratters, yay.

Being 20% below is a lot better than 75% below. 

[mahk_webstah]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then again looking at temp anomalies, it’s puke worthy. Santa comes in and brings the torch. 

It is also more than two weeks away on models…

[mahk_webstah]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm off Christmas week and New Years week. A big snowstorm during my weeks off would be nice.

I will pray 

Don’t pray, act.  Book a trip to Quebec City.  There are direct flights and good inexpensive hotels.  Your wife will love it.  Very romantic!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

It is also more than two weeks away on models…

We just don’t know. Nobody does. Anything can happen.

[Snowcrazed71]

32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What an assy pattern 

Swamp Assy for sure

[TheMainer]

Another 1.5" here for ~17" for the season so far. Let's avoid the worst of the winds here and give it to the coastal guys that want it and we'll begin again on Friday building towards winter again.

[DJln491]

Santa delivering presents in shorts & crocs.  Festive

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Swamp Assy for sure

We need to go back to the snowy patterns. This new pattern sucks.

[Prismshine Productions]

And here I thought I left the bickering behind when I left the Southeast Forum...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

And here I thought I left the bickering behind when I left the Southeast Forum...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Welcome to NewEng…the epicenter of bickering. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need to go back to the snowy patterns. This new pattern sucks.

You got your red wave bruh…Merry Christmas:

[Typhoon Tip]

 ... there are still important changes being modeled among the ensemble means out over the pacific, changes that may, and really should, force a downstream ridge over the western mid lat continent. the signal is a favorable modulation for winter enthusiasts.    so long as that is the case, there's a reasonable chance that the state of the modeling cinema would modulate that way in the days to come ...  i get it that the average user needs to see the operational lines of snow on the mirror with a 20 dollar bill of a pattern rolled up, but in this situation we have to look deeper and wait unfortunately.

patience is a virtuosity of principle that's seldom employed in practice.   i know it's hard when it comes to this because ... this isn't waiting for vacation day - not quite the same type of anticipation because of the whole addiction thing.  haha

no but the 18z gfs yesterday took a rather coherent step toward the better, with +pnap, a look that really should be emerging ... not going away.  i realize the runs since did just that. 

the thing is ... the flow looks terribly unbalanced if this present cinema for the 17th -24th were to succeed.   if the ens means are correct with that fantastic signal for troughing n-ne of hawaii, the flow across mid lat n/a would almost certainly need to change, and physically driven toward a western ridge.  i am wondering if pac changes may flee the runs ... which would be fantastic. it would be like negative time/going backward.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A neverending parade of rain events between now and Christmas on the GFS

[CoastalWx]

The problem is that it is not a classic Aleutian trough. Looping the ensembles, you can see we have low heights over the Bering Sea and at times a s/w trough kicks out and breaks down the western NAMR creating a Chinook type flow. Meanwhile, the PV retreats north. That is not a good recipe for us. 

Yes at times the ridge spikes so maybe you have a shot at something well timed, but it's another example of a turd in the punch bowl which is a recent issue for us.

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Welcome to NewEng…the epicenter of bickering. 

Shut up.

[Typhoon Tip]

near miss last evening huh ...  its 29 here right now, classic tuck after it was 39 at 10pm and the rain was ending.   if the tuck had happened just 3 hour sooner, we might have turned back back to snow/ice.  

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

near miss last evening huh ...  its 29 here right now, classic tuck after it was 39 at 10pm and the rain was ending.   if the tuck had happened just 3 hour sooner, we might have turned back back to snow/ice.  

And if my aunt had... She'd be my uncle.

[Layman]

42 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Don’t pray, act.  Book a trip to Quebec City.  There are direct flights and good inexpensive hotels.  Your wife will love it.  Very romantic!

Where do you fly out of when you go up?  MHT?  BOS?  MHT would be super convenient but they either don't fly direct out of there or I struggle greatly trying to find the proper flights! 

 

Sitting at 27.5 on the morning buried under several tenths of an inch of wintry precipitation after 0.43" of rain yesterday until ~8:30-9pm when it flipped.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

And if my aunt had... She'd be my uncle.

it's going to make this next 30 yours an interesting sequence of changes.  

29 and still air

62 in turbine s gales ...

flash freezing cold

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A neverending parade of rain events between now and Christmas on the GFS

 

[dryslot]

21/19°F,  2.3"

[dendrite]

Hopefully the pattern changes soon because all of these snow events are killing my back. 

[dryslot]

Biggest storm so far of the year today.

[Typhoon Tip]

by the way, the epo's need a bigger qualitative assessment manifold as far as where the positive height anomalies situate during the negative mode. it's not just whether they exist or not. 

part of the problem with the epo usage is that people don't do that.  - or they don't know how to really do it the right way. not sure who wrote what but the topic caught my attention skimming back.

how these indexes teleconnect depends where the anomalies materialize within the domain.   they're all like this.  wpo ...epo...nao... etc,  and it is not just 'where' the anomalies situated, either ... there is a timing in the onset versus decay, too.  it's complex. 

one thing you should look for with either a static -epo, or -d(epo), is whether there is a lagged appearance of a +d(pna).  this hand off of mass fields is much, much better correlated to winter events between the lakes and the ma/ne regions.