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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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Just now, ineedsnow said:

We need a good line to come through.. hoping for the west trend and stronger low

yeah if we see a stronger and deepening low just to our west its game on for some wind wind inland. At least right now though, this could be a huge wind issue towards the coast of Connecticut and eastern New England. IIRC, for coastal areas the strongest winds tend to be just a bit inland away from the water. Though an inversion may not be a huge issue in this one with temps/dews around 60.

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yeah, the ribbon echo squall might have some performance along it.  but out ahead, i suspect some sporadic power outages ... perhaps a bit more concentration of that over the coastal plain of se zones, but more like a climate wind scenario.

the low is 990 mb up in vt.  if that were deeper perhaps.  not sure the pgf is really huge enough here.   standard ekman reduction/frictional drag may be enough to keep the gust maxes down without a lot of thermal inversion. 

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i actually thought the teleconnector (numeric) mode review looked a little better this morning. if perhaps only by a small increment, better.  

warm side of the modes were collapsing neutral amid the various sources (regarding their numbers for key geographic domains) resulted even better +pnap - one that fits the general scope of the pacific mode as we approach the holiday.

now, this was last night's business.  it's a small increment and it could prove noisy fake. i'm not sure i lean 'noise-bad' though.

i will add .. i still think the western n/a continent flow structure could build more ridge out west, given the scale of the height falls n-ne of hawaii.  having said that ... the eps is trending toward a better fit - appeasing my personal hang up on that.. heh.   but here we can see the most improved version of this +pna to date.  this proooobably has a few members actually developing events at this point, but ... in deference to reality here, we are talking 276 hours so there's no blame to go around yet -

image.thumb.png.3ef8a10ac34adf861b2a7210d9cd2a1f.png

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ...i'd watch the 20th along the tv/ma route.   it's obviously vague at this range but that fits the canonical timing wrt to mode change induced correction events.     h.a. and all that ... 

It does have the look of possibly sneaking something in if well timed.

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I know the conventional wisdom is to go with the worsening look for the 2nd half of the month.  I'm not there yet. The long range has shifted alot the past month or two so a warm snowless pattern is not a lock for the rest of December.  And some good looks are still there.  And mostly things have trended better at least here, as events come closer.  Tonight will be my 4th snow event in less than 2 weeks.  Will have near a foot most likely in total in 4 events prior to Dec 10.  That's pretty good.

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2 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

Do we have ANYONE on the boards that was in the middle of that famous Squall??  

It wasn't a squall...it was incedibly intense banding in a coastal storm. I remeber it like yesterday from my perspective in Wilmington...it was impressive enough coming out of school to that mess, as they didn't even release us early. But I wasn't in Ayer, no.

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56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wasn’t in Ayer but I was in ORH for it and we got 18”. Not quite the jackpot but close enough. We got 6” per hour at the peak. 

it wasn't an "Ayer" event .. lol.

i get the context there but there's enough new users and/or youngins amongst us that it's probably taken literally?  i can see the take away being 'who cares about Ayer' or something like that

anyway it was a ne ct to nw ri and metrowest of boston and up... so sne regional scaled and included much of the interior. 

too bad i never saved those write ups i made back in the day.  i even received accolades for those efforts but i don't have those just laying around and i'm on lunch break and yadda yadda yadda.  

not sure there is a positive bust in history, dating back to the emergence of satellite and modeling ( anything before that would understandable ...) that can hold a candle to the shear enormity of forecasting 1-3" of glop in the hills and cat-paws in the valley, only have a uniform 15 to 24" fall in 5 hours at 26F !!

that's in 1997, too.  wasn't like today's standards, but ... it wasn't exactly piece of shit tech either. 

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8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Pfft.. You call that animation? This one will make you dizzy.

They are the Joe Bastardi, Jr. of twitter now. I’m waiting for them to completely bail on their winter forecast just like they’ve done every year since 2019. It’s coming….

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