December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh ..that's a mantra but it's not one that is actually very well supported in data.    in fact, when it comes to transitioning the eastern mid latitude continent from warm to cool, that transition direction tends to verify faster than initial guidance' out at the temporal range of whence the confidence improves.

transitioning from cool to warm ... that is typically when there is pre-lapsing. 

just in case:  as point of eye-rolling ..., this shouldn't be confused with actual weather tending to over perform warmth in general.  relative to any pattern foot, spanning the last 20 years - and especially so over the last 10 of those two decades - if the dailies end up warmer than guidance, that does not appear to be so much pattern handling, but in an all dimensions aspect.  there's a tendency for cold air masses to modify ticks warmer, relative to guidance, and warmer one's to over perform.   

Yea, perhaps some obfuscation there on my part.....was just an anecdotal comment. But I do think we are going to see some overzealous holiday week model runs along the way, which is really my point.

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna be a race to get the lower bounds of my +3 to +5 forecast for December, but I think we can do it.

That shouldn't be difficult.  

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, perhaps some obfuscation there on my part.....was just an anecdotal comment. But I do think we are going to see some overzealous holiday week model runs along the way, which is really my point.

lol, oh ...that's the other thing too - models will tend to magnify everything that emerges over the model horizon; deescalation seems to be an automatic requirement. haha

i like the metaphor of the new moon just over eastern horizon as the sun sets in the west.  looks like a sci-fi dystopian collision sequence is getting under way... but, rest assured, as the ominous rises over those next couple of hours ...it just fades into the same old ordinary smaller orb of mystery that for some weird reason, empirical data correlates to sci-fi dystopian murder rate increasing at the same rate that the moon's collision chances went down ... fascinating.  humanity ftl -

anyway, just havin' fun there.  the point is, the model magnification thing -

[Lava Rock]

no thread for the weds event?

[Great Snow 1717]

..has all the look and feel of another December going literally down the drain..

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

Overnight ensembles did not look good at all going into the week of Christmas. Definitely some can kicking at best, hopefully they are wrong. Will be nice to put a dent in the drought though. Hopefully we can time something nicely, because the moisture seems to be back. However for now it looks like the dreaded warm/wet, coldish/dry pattern setting up.

Eps want to retro the AK low heights westward which starts to build a favorable WC ridge. We may be able to time something before the calendar flips but I’d hedge we delay this some until after the holidays. Onto 2025…

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

no thread for the weds event?

Start it up!

[WinterWolf]

59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Yes that was the theme for years there…but it was starting to change some by midwinter of 93, and by 93-94 we were off to the races with a record snow year in SNE(BDL).  And then two years later 95-96 broke that record. So after a long span of horror, it did change in 92-93 and going forward with 93-94, and 95-96.   Ironically, 94-95 was a bad winter in between two record breakers. 

[dendrite]

Nammy and HRRR are a good 2-3” tonight up here. May get the pack up over 10”. 

[dryslot]

I've always have lived by this rule, And it works.

 IMPACTS...Snow will change over to a period of freezing rain and 
  freezing drizzle. It is recommended not to plow your driveway and 
  walkways until the storm has ended. Even light snowfall amounts 
  can accumulate on roads and cause dangerous driving conditions due 
  to snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.

[Lava Rock]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I've always have lived by this rule, And it works.

 IMPACTS...Snow will change over to a period of freezing rain and 
  freezing drizzle. It is recommended not to plow your driveway and 
  walkways until the storm has ended. Even light snowfall amounts 
  can accumulate on roads and cause dangerous driving conditions due 
  to snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes.

Debating this. If we get 3-5" tonight/tomorrow, how much melts after Weds. Probably all, but if not we'll have frozen wagon wheels in the driveway

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Debating this. If we get 3-5" tonight/tomorrow, how much melts after Weds. Probably all, but if not we'll have frozen wagon wheels in the driveway

No debating here, Its going to be gone on Weds, You may only see a couple inches tonight, This looks to get squeezed out under us.

[HoarfrostHubb]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Nammy and HRRR are a good 2-3” tonight up here. May get the pack up over 10”. 

Lots of SNH could be getting 3-4"

Close here, but mangled cats paws and rain seem more likely

[ma blizzard]

Mesos really hitting the cold tuck late tonight / tomorrow morning .. looks like it holds strong until Tuesday night 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Mesos really hitting the cold tuck late tonight / tomorrow morning .. looks like it holds strong until Tuesday night 

[NoCORH4L]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lots of SNH could be getting 3-4"

Close here, but mangled cats paws and rain seem more likely

Saw evidence of ice fishing on Paradise Pond in LSF yesterday. Could have been the only chance of the season if the LR is correct.

[Typhoon Tip]

what's really needed for the morally well grounded wind damage hobbyists is for gradient to be squeezed in the region south of the warm boundary, and west of the cold front.   that's a.   then, the actual vertical sounding through the pgf to suggest open or at least limited positive static stability.  7c/km should do it...

if these aren't apparent, then the wind will spear the skies overhead a not be realized in the lowest levels. 

this thing reminds me of a wind event from a synoptics recently where se mass took a decent hit ... but nw of boston's inversion remained just enough intact to rescue them from the burden of having fun and excitement -

 

 

[ma blizzard]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

gonna be 29 with fzdz as you check the coop on ice skates tomorrow 

[CoastalWx]

Nam is violent 

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Lots of SNH could be getting 3-4"

Close here, but mangled cats paws and rain seem more likely

Some models nothing here some 1 to 2.. just seems a bit warm now though

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nam is violent 

Start a thread

[ineedsnow]

I think we need this to trend a bit further west for big winds here.. but the coast could rock

[weatherwiz]

Sounding on the CAPE. That's serious stuff just above the ground 

Connecticut shoreline just a bit inland

[dendrite]

Dew you see what I see

[CoastalWx]

NAM is always too inverted. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Dew you see what I see

Dewcember

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Sounding on the CAPE. That's serious stuff just above the ground 

Connecticut shoreline just a bit inland

We need a good line to come through.. hoping for the west trend and stronger low

[Typhoon Tip]

funny thing is... wind excitement is almost always over sold in forecasting, because the sounding stability wasn't quite enough.

so which is it.   lol

[weatherwiz]

SPC going to have to expand the general thunder line farther north...may even see a marginal risk added. Could see some convectively driven damaging wind gusts potential and even a low end risk for a tornado just to our southwest

[CoastalWx]