kdxken Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Can we get November back in here please? This week looks like ass. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: Can we get November back in here please? This week looks like ass. At least you’ll have a ton of new trees to saw up for the Woodward in the big blow down coming Wednesday 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Wow.... Between later todays rain and Wednesdays rain... We could see between 2.5"-3.5" of rain. Funny, I remember when DIT was commenting back in November that the dry stretch was just going to continue right through the new year and he didn't see any chance of it getting back into a stormy pattern ( unfortunately it's rain ). But on the bright side, it will definitely make a large dent in the drought. One could only hope that we go back to a more wintry pattern around the holidays and into the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Colder look arrives the week of Christmas. Let’s go for gold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 44 minutes ago, kdxken said: This week looks like ass. Thanks for reminding me I have a prostate biopsy scheduled this week... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Overnight ensembles did not look good at all going into the week of Christmas. Definitely some can kicking at best, hopefully they are wrong. Will be nice to put a dent in the drought though. Hopefully we can time something nicely, because the moisture seems to be back. However for now it looks like the dreaded warm/wet, coldish/dry pattern setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 43 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Colder look arrives the week of Christmas. Let’s go for gold. Not with that Pacific jet. This is a warm/wet to cold/dry pattern. Looks like garbage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 50 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Colder look arrives the week of Christmas. Let’s go for gold. Guidance is going to rush that...I wouldn't hold your breath until after the New Year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Not with that Pacific jet. This is a warm/wet to cold/dry pattern. Looks like garbage Yes at 384 it looks garbage. Long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Ensembles were ok. Definitely some volatility in that timeframe. It has that look of gettknt something in with a well timed s/w. At least we have some highs building in at times. We blow Wednesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ski Patroller Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 NWS forecast for the Berkshires is for 2.5" to 4.5" of rain between today and Wednesday night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 this is the kind of titillating AmWx analysis i yearn for each and every day 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ensembles were ok. Definitely some volatility in that timeframe. It has that look of gettknt something in with a well timed s/w. At least we have some highs building in at times. We blow Wednesday. Hoping we can get into the 60s wednesday.. if we're going to lose the snow it would be nice to get big winds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ensembles were ok. Definitely some volatility in that timeframe. It has that look of gettknt something in with a well timed s/w. At least we have some highs building in at times. We blow Wednesday. doesn't seem like much has really changed with regards to the Pacific trough retrogression. going to be lots of whining in the meantime, though lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is the kind of titillating AmWx analysis i yearn for each and every day Alot more you can post from others also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: doesn't seem like much has really changed with regards to the Pacific trough retrogression. going to be lots of whining in the meantime, though lmao I’m just hoping to get something in around the holidays vs having another December skunked. Feels especially worse not cashing in when we had a good airmass for the first week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Hoping we can get into the 60s wednesday.. if we're going to lose the snow it would be nice to get big winds Oh they’re coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just hoping to get something in around the holidays vs having another December skunked. Feels especially worse not cashing in when we had a good airmass for the first week. yeah same. looks like we're seeing the jet retract a few days before the holidays, should allow the heights over AK to recover. jet is a bit more equatorward the second time around, which helps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m just hoping to get something in around the holidays vs having another December skunked. Feels especially worse not cashing in when we had a good airmass for the first week. My money on skunked this month, but I supposed we could try to sneak something the final week of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My money on skunked this month, but I supposed we could try to sneak something the final week of the year. It’s beyond tiresome at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s beyond tiresome at this point. I'm not expecting much until January...if we happen to luck out holiday week, awesome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not expecting much until January...if we happen to luck out holiday week, awesome. Time for a Milller B of yore. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't know if the information is available, however the mid to late 80s and early 90s featured the dreaded cold/warm up ahead of storm and rain/cold for years. Was the fast Paced jet the same issue then or was another factor driving the bus? The information may not be around however may provide insight as to why this is happening and perhaps how long (was about 8 years before). I remember one storm in January 1993 I believe that was in the lower teens in the morning, received about 1 inch of slop and then 50s and heavy rain then everything froze on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I think you mean January 1994... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think you mean January 1994... Thanks, yeah my recollection is probably off. However, perhaps looking back at that time period can shed light on what is occuring now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks, yeah my recollection is probably off. 80s into the early 90s featured a notable dearth of high latitude blocking....the present day struggles are more an issue of a consistently hostile Pacific....sensible result was similar, albeit colder back then due to CC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Should be flirting with AN on the month up here after Wednesday. The coldest start to December of ours lives couldn’t even net a -10 day at CON even with new normals. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Should be flirting with AN on the month up here after Wednesday. The coldest start to December of ours lives couldn’t even net a -10 day at CON even with new normals. Gonna be a race to get the lower bounds of my +3 to +5 forecast for December, but I think we can do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Guidance is going to rush that...I wouldn't hold your breath until after the New Year. heh ..that's a mantra but it's not one that is actually very well supported in data. in fact, when it comes to transitioning the eastern mid latitude continent from warm to cool, that transition direction tends to verify faster than initial guidance' out at the temporal range of whence the confidence improves. transitioning from cool to warm ... that is typically when there is pre-lapsing. just in case: as point of eye-rolling ..., this shouldn't be confused with actual weather tending to over perform warmth in general. relative to any pattern foot, spanning the last 20 years - and especially so over the last 10 of those two decades - if the dailies end up warmer than guidance, that does not appear to be so much pattern handling, but in an all dimensions aspect. there's a tendency for cold air masses to modify ticks warmer, relative to guidance, and warmer one's to over perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah same. looks like we're seeing the jet retract a few days before the holidays, should allow the heights over AK to recover. jet is a bit more equatorward the second time around, which helps Its not another winter of getting stood up by the cold until Brooklyn posts an animation. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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