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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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Wow.... Between later todays rain and Wednesdays rain... We could see between 2.5"-3.5" of rain. Funny, I remember when DIT was commenting back in November that the dry stretch was just going to continue right through the new year and he didn't see any chance of it getting back into a stormy pattern ( unfortunately it's rain ).

But on the bright side, it will definitely make a large dent in the drought. One could only hope that we go back to a more wintry pattern around the holidays and into the new year.

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Overnight ensembles did not look good at all going into the week of Christmas. Definitely some can kicking at best, hopefully they are wrong. Will be nice to put a dent in the drought though. Hopefully we can time something nicely, because the moisture seems to be back. However for now it looks like the dreaded warm/wet, coldish/dry pattern setting up.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles were ok. Definitely some volatility in that timeframe. It has that look of gettknt something in with a well timed s/w. At least we have some highs building in at times.

We blow Wednesday.

Hoping we can get into the 60s wednesday.. if we're going to lose the snow it would be nice to get big winds

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ensembles were ok. Definitely some volatility in that timeframe. It has that look of gettknt something in with a well timed s/w. At least we have some highs building in at times.

We blow Wednesday.

doesn't seem like much has really changed with regards to the Pacific trough retrogression. going to be lots of whining in the meantime, though lmao

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

doesn't seem like much has really changed with regards to the Pacific trough retrogression. going to be lots of whining in the meantime, though lmao

I’m just hoping to get something in around the holidays vs having another December skunked. Feels especially worse not cashing in when we had a good airmass for the first week. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m just hoping to get something in around the holidays vs having another December skunked. Feels especially worse not cashing in when we had a good airmass for the first week. 

yeah same. looks like we're seeing the jet retract a few days before the holidays, should allow the heights over AK to recover. jet is a bit more equatorward the second time around, which helps

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_fh240-360.thumb.gif.9f420ddf3282b7455ab0fc21ed52be93.gif

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m just hoping to get something in around the holidays vs having another December skunked. Feels especially worse not cashing in when we had a good airmass for the first week. 

My money on skunked this month, but I supposed we could try to sneak something the final week of the year.

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't know if the information is available, however the mid to late 80s and early 90s featured the dreaded cold/warm up ahead of storm and rain/cold for years. 

Was the fast Paced jet the same issue then or was another factor driving the bus? The information may not be around however may provide insight as to why this is happening and perhaps how long (was about 8 years before).

I remember one storm in January 1993 I believe that was in the lower teens in the morning, received about 1 inch of slop and then 50s and heavy rain then everything froze on the backend.

 

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3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks, yeah my recollection is probably off.

80s into the early 90s featured a notable dearth of high latitude blocking....the present day struggles are more an issue of a consistently hostile Pacific....sensible result was similar, albeit colder back then due to CC.

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3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Should be flirting with AN on the month up here after Wednesday. The coldest start to December of ours lives couldn’t even net a -10 day at CON even with new normals. 

Gonna be a race to get the lower bounds of my +3 to +5 forecast for December, but I think we can do it.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Guidance is going to rush that...I wouldn't hold your breath until after the New Year.

heh ..that's a mantra but it's not one that is actually very well supported in data.    in fact, when it comes to transitioning the eastern mid latitude continent from warm to cool, that transition direction tends to verify faster than initial guidance' out at the temporal range of whence the confidence improves.

transitioning from cool to warm ... that is typically when there is pre-lapsing. 

just in case:  as point of eye-rolling ..., this shouldn't be confused with actual weather tending to over perform warmth in general.  relative to any pattern foot, spanning the last 20 years - and especially so over the last 10 of those two decades - if the dailies end up warmer than guidance, that does not appear to be so much pattern handling, but in an all dimensions aspect.  there's a tendency for cold air masses to modify ticks warmer, relative to guidance, and warmer one's to over perform.   

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36 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah same. looks like we're seeing the jet retract a few days before the holidays, should allow the heights over AK to recover. jet is a bit more equatorward the second time around, which helps

gfs-ens_uv250_npac_fh240-360.thumb.gif.9f420ddf3282b7455ab0fc21ed52be93.gif

Its not another winter of getting stood up by the cold until Brooklyn posts an animation.

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