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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

adding to this ... for a change the n-of-maine polar high is actually trending more resistant for a change.  typically we get inside of 120 hours and it's sliding off in the trends -

Yeah it’s too bad we can’t shove that arctic boundary a bit further south behind the clipper on Sunday. If we could, that would introduce a lot more “interesting” look for the main event mid-week. It’s close but doesn’t quite really make it here…we are kind of left with the leading-edge polar airmass in place. Still cold enough for some marginal light frozen/freezing precip over interior but not enough to make the main show more interesting. It eventually gets bullied out. 
 

But the look is definitely more favorable for the snow economy up north. Wouldn’t be a total wipeout like some of those 60F cutter solutions we saw a few days ago. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And that won’t occur with that HP there . Locked 

We will warm sector but it’s just a lot shorter than some of the previous solutions which had us like in a 48 hour warm sector. Now it’s more like 6-12 hours at least over interior. Longer on the coast locations. 

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So early I made a point that it's not going to be as warm next week as it was originally forecasted. Monday night and into Tuesday morning could have some mixed precipitation in the interior. Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday for sure will be rain in Southern New England. Maybe Northern New England can get something Frozen. But there was a little talk this morning that Wednesday night into Thursday morning there could be a change back to snow in parts of Southern New England. Nothing crazy, but again, a change from what they were showing several days back. We shall see

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48 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s too bad we can’t shove that arctic boundary a bit further south behind the clipper on Sunday. If we could, that would introduce a lot more “interesting” look for the main event mid-week. It’s close but doesn’t quite really make it here…we are kind of left with the leading-edge polar airmass in place. Still cold enough for some marginal light frozen/freezing precip over interior but not enough to make the main show more interesting. It eventually gets bullied out. 
 

But the look is definitely more favorable for the snow economy up north. Wouldn’t be a total wipeout like some of those 60F cutter solutions we saw a few days ago. 

It seems like this has been a crazy theme the last several winters. Even when we are in a good pattern, we can't seem to get something to work and when we do get storms the trough axis develops just too far west and we're getting flow blown warm sector. 

Is it possible the warm waters are having a big influence in this? Part of me is curious on this but on the other hand, it's not like we see fronts and boundary's struggle to get off the coast but it seems that now consistently these type of setups cyclogenesis is just way too far west for us. Doesn't even seem to matter what the overall regime is, the evolution seems to gravitate towards this. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

It seems like this has been a crazy theme the last several winters. Even when we are in a good pattern, we can't seem to get something to work and when we do get storms the trough axis develops just too far west and we're getting flow blown warm sector. 

Is it possible the warm waters are having a big influence in this? Part of me is curious on this but on the other hand, it's not like we see fronts and boundary's struggle to get off the coast but it seems that now consistently these type of setups cyclogenesis is just way too far west for us. Doesn't even seem to matter what the overall regime is, the evolution seems to gravitate towards this. 

As Wx2fish said to me, at least we have some highs now nosing in. Haven’t had that last two years.

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42 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So early I made a point that it's not going to be as warm next week as it was originally forecasted. Monday night and into Tuesday morning could have some mixed precipitation in the interior. Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday for sure will be rain in Southern New England. Maybe Northern New England can get something Frozen. But there was a little talk this morning that Wednesday night into Thursday morning there could be a change back to snow in parts of Southern New England. Nothing crazy, but again, a change from what they were showing several days back. We shall see

it's a deceptively cool look next week if/when employing the specifics of these operational runs.  

from orbit ...this looks like a warm pattern - ish.   but, closer inspection shows that through the mean of those days there is +pp situated n of the buf-bos latitude.  that's a cooler lower tropospheric tendency with that. 

i like to call these 'top heavy ridges'.    they can't always be seen by rip-read 500 mb chartage.   they are also the bane of most people's outdoor plans in april lol

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s too bad we can’t shove that arctic boundary a bit further south behind the clipper on Sunday. If we could, that would introduce a lot more “interesting” look for the main event mid-week. It’s close but doesn’t quite really make it here…we are kind of left with the leading-edge polar airmass in place. Still cold enough for some marginal light frozen/freezing precip over interior but not enough to make the main show more interesting. It eventually gets bullied out. 
 

But the look is definitely more favorable for the snow economy up north. Wouldn’t be a total wipeout like some of those 60F cutter solutions we saw a few days ago. 

Yes..the north is trending in the right direction.  Which is good to see. 

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