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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Thats where a nice 1030+ HP over QUE would work wonders to get this one underneath us, Still time though as you said.

Might be one of those where freak manages to pull 10” out his rear on the backend. We don’t do anafrontal here 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.

I’m right there with you

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would have said that on March 6, 2001. Anafraud is never a wise investment unless you live on the windward slope of Mt. Dearclit.

Ah yes, I believe that is the address for the forerunner quad at stowe

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.

This right here is why I'm thankful to have other hobbies and a robust (read that busy, pain in the ass) work life... balance, whatever that is LOL. It's healthy to have other distractions

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16 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably not. Would much rather have that then a ‘38 redux. Something like that scares the shit out of me. I mean it would be fun to experience the elements but not the result of those elements 

Did you mean 38 TC or 1888 blizzard?  An 1888 redux would just look give us good snow and wind but I would doubt there would be those huge totals in the valley .... probably be east. We wouldn't loose power and Internet for 7-12 days 

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ana -form scenarios can happen ...obviously the models are not depicting events that are physically impossible, otherwise ...what are they there for?  aside from dopamine dripping the ocd crowd into their psychoabble hard-ons, they are supposed to actually facsimile the atmospheric state, out in time, based upon the rules of nature that govern the atmospheric state ...and so on.

however, to a high ish degree of confidence, one can go ahead and assume that reality will be less prolific in ground observation compared to quantities modeled.  models are going to be efficient at cloud deposition. but, they will not be very good at the "evaporating integral" between what leaves cloud and makes it all the way down to the ground.  how much of the falling moisture content gets eaten by the backside/ana envelope's on-going dry caa, offsetting and so on.  there may be a multiple reasons for over assessing how much makes to earth ... topographic resolution, data sparseness from dry air sourcing missed in grid initialization... etc etc.

*however, one aspect about ana circumstances out in time, they are there because the model assess a s mid lev flow component, lagging back behind the frontal position, that is riding back over.  the front clears a longitude and this immediately instantiates an overrunning. this new overrunning, and over circumstance, is a petri dish for cyclogenesis.   in effect, you could say the given construct is one that needs to be watched, because future guidance might take that the next step and start buckling the boundary, with actual warm trying to move the front back west over top a zygote low pressure - we've already seen this in recent runs with that period of time out there.  18z gfs yesterdy for example, that run was an ana that went too far and an actual low formed on the trailing front - or to a reasonable analog to that...   

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12 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

Did you mean 38 TC or 1888 blizzard?  An 1888 redux would just look give us good snow and wind but I would doubt there would be those huge totals in the valley .... probably be east. We wouldn't loose power and Internet for 7-12 days 

The valley got crushed in 1888. Below is a picture from Northampton. 
 

6E592CFC-C972-45A8-A954-96EE2C7DCABA.thumb.jpeg.588a76d1b8c9c56fcb7e8cb45d6c4151.jpeg

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1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The valley got crushed in 1888. Below is a picture from Northampton. 
 

6E592CFC-C972-45A8-A954-96EE2C7DCABA.thumb.jpeg.588a76d1b8c9c56fcb7e8cb45d6c4151.jpeg

that's because the circulation around the beast was paralleling the geographic striations...    if said circulation was more nw or ne, than the shadowing can occur. 

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Just now, ineedsnow said:

even tries to make it interesting here

And then the follow up one washes it away as we warm sector with the low going thru NY and eventually here as there's several waves moving along the front before it moves off the coast.

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