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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Might be worth watching the weekend? We’ve seen a weak signal for something but the 06z Euro gets snow over much of the region Sunday morning.

Also worth keeping an eye on Tuesday for climo favored areas. A little less confluence and that’s advisory snow for my area 

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9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The AO is still negative and projected to be negative.  I doubt the weather will be warm for a long period.

Realistically, I would wait until right around the Christmas/New Years time frame for a meaningful change back to what we've had recently. With any luck climo would favor a more wintry look at that time

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That PV lobe vortmax rotating down in Quebec is what would be needed to get a colder solution next week. If you can rotate that down into northern Maine or something then it gets very interesting. But right now most guidance is too far north with it. This is the clown range NAM at 12z 
 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.

I learned a long time ago that I have no control over the weather, so I just accept what happens.  

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.

Yeah, happy for those that got snow, but sigh..we continue to wait.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm honestly so exhausted by the past several seasons that I don't even care to engage deeply, or invest until I feel something worthwhile is literally imminent.

Man, I totally get you. I used to let the same s*** happen to me. But I finally stopped and said none of us have control over what Mother nature is going to do. So just go with what happens. It does make things a lot less difficult when they don't go the way we hope. 

Whatever you do, don't stop your passion. We all have that same passion, and it's not worth tossing it aside just because it's not going the way we hope because of model discrepancies that happen. 

As far as next week goes, more than likely four for southern areas, it's not going to trend in a way that's good enough to change to a wintry setup. But, there's a possibility that Central and Northern areas could get enough of a change in model runs where it could become more wintry. It's worth keeping an eye on.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah weak clipper. 

actually looks like a warm front to me ...that early sunday morning whisk through thing. mostly cne up for any expression of it, and by 18z ... 550+ dm ... thickness' west and south zones and 546 with 'polar barotropic' air mass rapidly ne. 

the gfs has it too, but it then lifts a theta e conveyor for early next week, which it uses to 52 f rain for two straight days or something but it's likely overdone like everything ever modeled in that range+ seems to be these days..

anyway, no one asked but it looks to me like a warm burst could materialize circa 15th -20th.  not a certainty but ... i would suggest folks consider that despite the recent cool snap and today's treat, don't be lulled into thinking it's 1995 again.  we still are very much in a larger/longer/planetary circumstance of 'anything that can go warm usually does and exceeds expectation' sort of reality.  

if -epo does bias west, together with that underpinning -pna during tht time range we will be 70 deg.  the key is the ne pac and how it might transmit forcing down stream.  nuanced

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably going to see some type of wintry mess for NNE Monday. Someone will end up getting smoked

Looks to be morphing into a SWFE event up here on the GFS, Cold enough for all snow too verbatim.

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Probably going to see some type of wintry mess for NNE Monday. Someone will end up getting smoked

GFS is real wedgy on the front end early next week. High is in a better position. Follow up still busts west, but front end could be wintry for NNE

 

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Just now, NW_of_GYX said:

Nothing to save us from warm sectoring on that but it’s still out in lala land 

Thats where a nice 1030+ HP over QUE would work wonders to get this one underneath us, Still time though as you said.

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