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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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On 12/2/2024 at 9:26 PM, WinterWolf said:

Some of us have lives bro, been busy all day.  And to be honest…the more I’m away from here lately, the better it is.  
 

But as much as I love snow here at home, as long as northern ME gets the goods…that’s really all I care about now, being I rent a cabin for the winter up there.   

Same with me. Northern Maine is where its at usually

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still say it ends up + in the seasonal mean, but nothing crazy....the WPO is what can hopefully allow us to salvage something.

Look at the ensembles. You just have to laugh. That trough ends up backing its ass up and twerking off of CA like dancer in a Juvenile video. Literally shaking it’s ass at us and pumping up that ridge.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at the ensembles. You just have to laugh. That trough ends up backing its ass up and twerking off of CA like dancer in a Juvenile video. Literally shaking it’s ass at us and pumping up that ridge.

2022...it was a great analog....but like @donsutherland1has been saying, there should be more variability this season. I am pretty confident of that.

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I think this is how very long range guidance like that should be used....view it as a tool to bolster confidence in a scenario that is supported by pages upon pages of data, as opposed to just blindly hoping its correct. Maybe all of the data can still ultimately be flushed down the toilet, but betters odds that way.

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Regression is a BITCH…you said it yourself.  We’ve been getting a healthy dose since 21.  And S Wey been taking it on the chin for sure..worse than most everyone else even.  Not that it’s been a whole lot better anywhere’s else in SNE, but your area has been hit the hardest the last two years.  After a decade of over achieving all The time out there…it’s come back to haunt you. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The public is on high alert. Only post positive thoughts or else…

Nope not at all. Just don’t want to hear winter is shot on 12/4 that’s all.  Maybe we recover in time for the holidays.   And let’s see what we get tonight..I’ll take an inch or two and be grateful.   

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28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Regression is a BITCH…you said it yourself.  We’ve been getting a healthy dose since 21.  And S Wey been taking it on the chin for sure..worse than most everyone else even.  Not that it’s been a whole lot better anywhere’s else in SNE, but your area has been hit the hardest the last two years.  After a decade of over achieving all The time out there…it’s come back to haunt you. 

I have been getting a healthy dose since March 2018...yea, the ratter seasons haven't been as poor here as the coast, but I also haven't sniffed average snowfall in 7 consecutive seasons and this year looks poised to make it 8.

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56 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have been getting a healthy dose since March 2018...yea, the ratter seasons haven't been as poor here as the coast, but I also haven't sniffed average snowfall in 7 consecutive seasons and this year looks poised to make it 8.

14-15 was my last decent winter. I missed 16-17 in Virginia. The rest up here have been blah on the coast. Lost count, but I don’t think I broke a foot for seasonal snow last winter. Same the winter before. Garbage. 

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Onto January…

I wouldn't write December off completely. Although as a whole it's not looking great, there are some opportunities for Winter. And who knows.. there just may be something right around Christmas. 

Like everyone else on here, I'm just as disappointed on how things are turning out as a whole for this month, but there's no control from any of us on forecasting what we see on the models as we're kind of at their Mercy on how the pattern itself is going. 

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have been getting a healthy dose since March 2018...yea, the ratter seasons haven't been as poor here as the coast, but I also haven't sniffed average snowfall in 7 consecutive seasons and this year looks poised to make it 8.

Ya' same here.  I was about 10" ahead of you in 2019-20 but otherwise we are generally neck and neck in the futility race.

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