December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Easy enough mistake to make. Probably thought it was the electric blue. 

Likely came from there since right next door. You seem familiar with setup?

[powderfreak]

Back to 1/2-1” an hour bursts after a lull.  The limiting factor is the duration of the bursts.  There’s a bit of QPF in it, oddly clingy to objects… maximizing snow growth (aggregation).

Snow depth is passing 6”.  It’s a highly aesthetically pleasing snow.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 913 PM EST Monday...Snow showers continue in the typical
northwest flow upslope areas. These will continue for the rest
of the night and even though the rates will generally be light,
the longer duration will allow minor accumulations to occur in
some areas. A persistent standing wave cloud in Stowe was able
to put down a couple inches this evening in a very localized
area, but the snowfall rates with that have been declining.

[bristolri_wx]

8 minutes ago, FXWX said:

All I know is, the last several winters have almost always seen extended period moderating periods verifying even warmer than originally modeled, while modeled cold periods ended up shorter than first expected?   This repeating winter theme is getting old.  I know right now the Pacific looks different than the last couple of Decembers, but the same scenario is in play?  Hopefully trends move in a more favorable direction for the midmonth period, but who knows!

I feel like at least part of this is the normal modulation of the seasonal weather pattern. It was quite warm and above normal in most of November, so you would expect that even a below normal setup we have now will moderate back to above for a period as we continue to gradually step down into climo. As long as nothing outrageous is going on to the north of us we should be okay as we get deeper into December.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like last Dec .Each run gets worse . And Wolf disappears 

Some of us have lives bro, been busy all day.  And to be honest…the more I’m away from here lately, the better it is.  
 

But as much as I love snow here at home, as long as northern ME gets the goods…that’s really all I care about now, being I rent a cabin for the winter up there.   

[FXWX]

20 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I feel like at least part of this is the normal modulation of the seasonal weather pattern. It was quite warm and above normal in most of November, so you would expect that even a below normal setup we have now will moderate back to above for a period as we continue to gradually step down into climo. As long as nothing outrageous is going on to the north of us we should be okay as we get deeper into December.

We will see... Would be perfectly happy to see a normal to modestly above normal (+1 to +3) mid to late December... But fear the ability of our current climo trend to bust warmer than expected!

[MJO812]

We track

[Modfan2]

Down to 14F in the valley, nice pond freezing cold the past few days

[dendrite]

Min 24.6°

A hair above normal. 

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Min 24.6°

A hair above normal. 

Let’s keep it that way.  This snow pack has been very resilient in the woods and even some of the fields, though, so it will probably get quite cold if the snow covers stays.

[dryslot]

14.4°F was the low this morning, 3rd morning in a row in the low teens.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is interesting next week. Potential mixed event 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Let’s keep it that way.  This snow pack has been very resilient in the woods and even some of the fields, though, so it will probably get quite cold if the snow covers stays.

Somehow I still have some of that dusting from late last week hanging around

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is interesting next week. Potential mixed event 

noticed that ... weak but still substantive +pp layout along and n of the border from lake superior to mid ontario.  close enough for llv insert ... then, southern push arrives for a snow to ice to (probably) cold rain.

the ggem had something kinda like that on sunday morning's run - not exactly but similar result.   but since then it's sliding any high pressure off to the east and unabated southerly wash ensues.

meanwhile the gfs has been oscillating between too far west with the traffic, to not a chance too far west with traffic - pick which grinch

[WinterWolf]

17 this morning..solid cold. 

[ineedsnow]

light snow falling now.  We take

[Typhoon Tip]

the eps is attempting to relearn ( ... or remind perhaps - ) us that we are in a new paradigm whence in the absence of a -epo or direct cold forcing, we surge warmer than normal and by an usual amount. 

i began noticing a kind of direct feed requirement for cold dependability .. about 12 years ago really.  i recall posting about it several times spanning a few cold seasons thereafter - but have since declined the practice because no one ever really has responded with anything resembling an acknowledgement ( - no mystery there ).    this paradigm began back then, where it and there are times when it is exemplifying - this 850 mb temperature anomaly by the 0z eps shows what a neutralized epo, ie, cold spigot closed, does to for us at mid latitude continent ... almost immediately.  within a mere couple of days,  blw                                    

...granted, it is way out in the extended, but the predictability/confidence isn't the point.  the physical processing of the model is, in principle, indicating the same phenomenon here where we seem to be in a state where we've lost the ability to sustain any averages -

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is interesting next week. Potential mixed event 

I’m hoping we can catch a break since we have a lot of cold-loading up north. One of these can produce those sneaky highs that helps us out. That’s been the hardest part recently…actually getting a high to hold for a bit. Even if it retreats eventually, you can get good events if it fights for a while ala 12/16/07 or something like that. We haven’t been able to time any confluence up there in our favor. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m hoping we can catch a break since we have a lot of cold-loading up north. One of these can produce those sneaky highs that helps us out. That’s been the hardest part recently…actually getting a high to hold for a bit. Even if it retreats eventually, you can get good events if it fights for a while ala 12/16/07 or something like that. We haven’t been able to time any confluence up there in our favor. 

I’ll go for that tuck lol. But yeah, one of these days we need to catch a break. Next week seems like an opportunity, although I think the odds are sort of stacked against our area.

[CoastalWx]

I don’t know if anybody has noticed this, but a lot of southern states lately have had snow. Most recent is coastal North Carolina. Right near Wilmington.

[Prismshine Productions]

19.6 was my overnight low

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

14.4°F was the low this morning, 3rd morning in a row in the low teens.

Was AN here. Still a good 4-5” pack though. 

[WxWatcher007]

Low of 16.7° here. 

[UnitedWx]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know if anybody has noticed this, but a lot of southern states lately have had snow. Most recent is coastal North Carolina. Right near Wilmington.

Yes. My cousins in NC have had snow already...

[Torch Tiger]

A little dusting of snow in spots near Lee/Newmarket

[Torch Tiger]

Funny thread title btw 

[NorEastermass128]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t know if anybody has noticed this, but a lot of southern states lately have had snow. Most recent is coastal North Carolina. Right near Wilmington.

Meanwhile, getting any snow to fall in coastal Massachusetts requires an act of Congress. We tired.

[SnowGoose69]

Basically the last panel on the 12z ICON at 180 is what you want to see....drag the boundary far enough so that anything riding up on it after is snow.  the 06Z GFS at 186 is simply too far west so the ensuing wave is rain.  

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Basically the last panel on the 12z ICON at 180 is what you want to see....drag the boundary far enough so that anything riding up on it after is snow.  the 06Z GFS at 186 is simply too far west so the ensuing wave is rain.  

zero z gfs was e with that idea of a new wave down the front fwiw -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

56 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Funny thread title btw 

And rereading the first several pages is lol. 

[DJln491]

overnight temps in the 50s next week for SNE?