40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:07 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It’s not a massive SE ridge, but I’d feel a little better in January seeing that. Just not a fan of that trough axis. Getting really tired of this. January will be nice IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:10 PM 7 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Bricked by that ridge Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:12 PM Big difference I see from 2022 is the WPO, which is remaining fairly negative as anticipated. Even with that mild pattern, we still have higher heights in the Bering Sea. This is why the season shouldn't be as bad as that year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted Monday at 01:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:18 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I was wrong about early December. I think we knew there was progged relaxation at some point mid month. I’m just sick and tired of seeing the same stable look approaching the holidays. Perhaps it improves before that, but I’ll get jack dick from this pattern. Can we ever get a fucking break? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 01:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:35 PM 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t mean to bring anyone down. I hope I’m violently wrong like I was early December. I’m just frustrated and disgusted. You’re not bringing anyone down at all. If it looks lousy, it looks lousy. We all feel you, and share/understand the disappointment. Will made some interesting and important points about this being different than last/previous December’s, so that could play in down the line to improving the look after we relax. The cold we have now is legit, and wasn’t progged a few weeks ago, so those ugly depictions out at 384 could be overblown too? Let’s hope everyone can grab some snow Wednesday/Wednesday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 01:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:41 PM 17 coldest night so far this season 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Monday at 01:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:46 PM 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: You’re not bringing anyone down at all. If it looks lousy, it looks lousy. We all feel you, and share/understand the disappointment. Will made some interesting and important points about this being different than last/previous December’s, so that could play in down the line to improving the look after we relax. The cold we have now is legit, and wasn’t progged a few weeks ago, so those ugly depictions out at 384 could be overblown too? Let’s hope everyone can grab some snow Wednesday/Wednesday night. We accept your apology. Hopefully late month we can score something and make the holidays festive. I have my doubts though because when that West Coast trough starts digging into Baja that sucker is persistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 01:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:51 PM 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We accept your apology. Hopefully late month we can score something and make the holidays festive. I have my doubts though because when that West Coast trough starts digging into Baja that sucker is persistent. Luke, I have absolutely nothing to apologize for. And that was not any type of apology. The cold is here, it has happened. I never said it was going to be an epic snow outbreak. I was hoping we could grab something(we may still come Wednesday). I only said let’s see how things play out. I believe that is still in play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted Monday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:53 PM 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 17 coldest night so far this season Boy your temps just like ASH.....same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted Monday at 01:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:53 PM 21.0F for the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Monday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:56 PM Will is still posting so there’s hope…. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Monday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:56 PM Mins -5° Maple Hollow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted Monday at 01:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:58 PM The Wednesday night clippah is looking like rain showers here. Another NNE and CNE event. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:18 PM 15.3F for my overnight low. Coldest of the season. Several more lows in the teens upcoming. 2-4" SNE 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Monday at 02:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:27 PM 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Big difference I see from 2022 is the WPO, which is remaining fairly negative as anticipated. Even with that mild pattern, we still have higher heights in the Bering Sea. This is why the season shouldn't be as bad as that year. I canceled winter by Christmas that year lol, so hopefully you’re right. Low of 17.8°. Not bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:38 PM low of 17, at least we have pond ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:38 PM I really wish I had the time, or was fully involved with long-range and/or seasonal forecasting. It's so intriguing but at the same time incredibly frustrating. Just looking at ensembles and weeklies I feel like is a tiny fraction of what goes into such forecasting. This likely requires having immense knowledge of daily regimes across the globe, how the patterns across the globe are changing daily, and the background states and what the main drivers are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Monday at 02:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:46 PM 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I really wish I had the time, or was fully involved with long-range and/or seasonal forecasting. It's so intriguing but at the same time incredibly frustrating. Just looking at ensembles and weeklies I feel like is a tiny fraction of what goes into such forecasting. This likely requires having immense knowledge of daily regimes across the globe, how the patterns across the globe are changing daily, and the background states and what the main drivers are. I feel the same way, would be awesome to have my finger on the pulse. I’d imagine you’d have to have about 17 data sites saved in a folder that gets checked daily, along with probably a weekly long-term blogging practice. Otherwise, important signals get lost and the whole enterprise isn’t even worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted Monday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:49 PM On 11/26/2024 at 1:55 PM, forkyfork said: looks cold and dry ez call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 02:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:50 PM 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: I feel the same way, would be awesome to have my finger on the pulse. I’d imagine you’d have to have about 17 data sites saved in a folder that gets checked daily, along with probably a weekly long-term blogging practice. Otherwise, important signals get lost and the whole enterprise isn’t even worth it Yeah I'd imagine one must have a ton of different links and data sources saved that you're constantly checking daily. But ultimately, just assessing model guidance without accounting for the current state and understanding what is driving things...you're going to have an awfully difficult time in the accuracy department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:52 PM Just now, weatherwiz said: Yeah I'd imagine one must have a ton of different links and data sources saved that you're constantly checking daily. But ultimately, just assessing model guidance without accounting for the current state and understanding what is driving things...you're going to have an awfully difficult time in the accuracy department. Right. Instead, we just sit here, look at 360 hr charts, and go like “aw shucks, hopefully it’s wrong” because we (or maybe just me personally) can’t put our finger on the driving causes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 03:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:00 PM Next 2 weeks seem to have a parade of smaller events... I counted 5 on the GFS. Some are rainers verbatim Euro drops around 1.5" of precip regionwide in that period 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Monday at 03:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:01 PM Just dumping snow at times this morning. 4” at the base, 6” up top. Even in the valley getting moderate snow at 1/2 mile vis at times. METAR KMVL 021445Z AUTO 00000KT 1/2SM SN FZFG OVC013 M03/M04 A3006 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted Monday at 03:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:05 PM 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Just dumping snow at times this morning. 4” at the base, 6” up top. Is that LES off of Champlain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted Monday at 03:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:05 PM 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah I'd imagine one must have a ton of different links and data sources saved that you're constantly checking daily. But ultimately, just assessing model guidance without accounting for the current state and understanding what is driving things...you're going to have an awfully difficult time in the accuracy department. Exactly!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 03:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:12 PM 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I was wrong about early December. I think we knew there was progged relaxation at some point mid month. I’m just sick and tired of seeing the same stable look approaching the holidays. Perhaps it improves before that, but I’ll get jack dick from this pattern. Can we ever get a fucking break? yeah, Murphy's Law still has quite the grip on us. what can you do? in the mid-2010s we probably would have gotten a SECS out of this pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 03:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:16 PM 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Will is still posting so there’s hope…. Yea, the WSO goes negative, and we're porked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:21 PM 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We accept your apology. Hopefully late month we can score something and make the holidays festive. I have my doubts though because when that West Coast trough starts digging into Baja that sucker is persistent. Ok... Now you are being sarcastic There are two camps here, pessimistic and optimistic. I think that's what the friction has been all about. There's no one person who's right or wrong. When the models show one thing, the optimistic side of people will either say this could change or hey, this is looking great. The pessimistic people would say, I told you so, or it's going to change back to something that we don't like. That's the difference we have here. With all that said, I think everyone is on the same page. I think we all want to see a better setup this winter than we did the last few. Our chances are good to have a better setup in general. And even for this month, with things going back to a milder pattern ( in the most recent runs ) but it doesn't mean we can't see snow, it just makes it a bit harder. Lastly, as with any weather pattern, things could abruptly switch back to a colder pattern again but whatever happens happens. There's just some of us who like to take that dagger and dig it and twist in as it seems to give them some sort of twisted satisfaction. As with life, let's just move forward. We're just one step closer to having something Great! 1 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:23 PM Over 1,000 days since parts of E MA have seen over 4+ inches? Could that be right? edit: it feels like it here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:24 PM GFS trying for something early next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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