Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,110
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 12/1/2024 at 5:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

amazing consistency producing no snow in SNE over the last couple days on the models.

That clipper has trended laughably far north of the last 48 hours.

Definitely going to suck to roll snake eyes once again on a favorable window 

Expand  

It never made sense to drop it as far south as some models were doing based on the ridge/trof positioning

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like our heralded great pattern is only going to yield and inch or two of snow. Guidance completely lost the threat on the 8th. I suppose there's an outside chance it will come back but the pattern may be breaking down at that point. We've also trended warmer for the 11th which was looking like a potential icing event yesterday. Boo.

 

EDIT: Didn't realize the GFS is still advertising a wintry outcome for the 10th/11th. Still way out there...

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 7:09 PM, H2Otown_WX said:

Seems like our heralded great pattern is only going to yield and inch or two of snow. Guidance completely lost the threat on the 8th. I suppose there's an outside chance it will come back but the pattern may be breaking down at that point. We've also trended warmer for the 11th which was looking like a potential icing event yesterday. Boo.

 

EDIT: Didn't realize the GFS is still advertising a wintry outcome for the 10th/11th. Still way out there...

Expand  

After the last half decade, even a perfect pattern on paper becomes “proceed with caution” in reality. I do think it’s important that the look we’re seeing is fundamentally different from the ones we’ve seen in recent years with troughs getting buried on the west coast. Having a much more favorable Pacific gives me some cautious hope that a blowtorch completely-close-the-shades pattern from Dec-March is less likely. 

We need to produce in our windows, absolutely. But we also need to remember climo at least down here in the tropics of CT remains essentially hostile until about mid-month. Getting on the board and not reverting to the annual blowtorch as we move into Christmas week (or having it on the horizon) is a win imo. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 3:44 PM, forkyfork said:

goodbye winter

image.thumb.png.75fefca01ea637398ee526cc7fcfe46d.png

  On 12/1/2024 at 5:49 PM, forkyfork said:

"the best december pattern in years" and it's a week of cool weather

Expand  

 

Expand  

Give it up man. Your being passive aggressive with  the purpose of trying to stir the pot is a low blow. Either be a part of the discussion with constructive criticism or stick a FORK in it. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 6:22 PM, qg_omega said:

Same for SNE, in fact most of the NY area just north of the city has more snow on the year than all of SNE

Expand  

Q.... What is today's date? Oh . It's December 1st. That's Snow that New York got was definitely a gift ( and an early one at that ). Why don't you go join hands with forkey fork and Allsnow and you guys can all sing kumbaya

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

  On 12/1/2024 at 7:29 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Give it up man. Your being passive aggressive with  the purpose of trying to stir the pot is a low blow. Either be a part of the discussion with constructive criticism or stick a FORK in it. 

Expand  

There’s a degree of schadenfreude that NYC folks can get when New England snow lovers get disappointed, because they themselves are so used to missing out. Especially during otherwise favorable +NAO patterns. It’s best to just let them troll as they cry in 50 degree average high temps

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 7:45 PM, Henry's Weather said:

In other news, it seems that that Alaskan ridge might regenerate after a mid-month warmup. We also enter phase 7 in late Dec, but we may need to wait a few weeks for any other good chances

Expand  

AK ridge never really truly goes away. It reloads a bit west but this is very poleward so caution flags for the all-torch-all-the-time crowd despite New England looking warm on this prog…there’s certain types of patterns where it’s easier for torches on models here to underperform and this is one of them. 


image.png.7c407bba659ede7dc59d462231486c86.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 7:58 PM, ORH_wxman said:

AK ridge never really truly goes away. It reloads a bit west but this is very poleward so caution flags for the all-torch-all-the-time crowd despite New England looking warm on this prog…there’s certain types of patterns where it’s easier for torches on models here to underperform and this is one of them. 


image.png.7c407bba659ede7dc59d462231486c86.png

Expand  

Would that lead to a ridge bridge from Greenland to Alaska and a -pna or maybe the trough swings east under blocking?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 7:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

After the last half decade, even a perfect pattern on paper becomes “proceed with caution” in reality. I do think it’s important that the look we’re seeing is fundamentally different from the ones we’ve seen in recent years with troughs getting buried on the west coast. Having a much more favorable Pacific gives me some cautious hope that a blowtorch completely-close-the-shades pattern from Dec-March is less likely. 

We need to produce in our windows, absolutely. But we also need to remember climo at least down here in the tropics of CT remains essentially hostile until about mid-month. Getting on the board and not reverting to the annual blowtorch as we move into Christmas week (or having it on the horizon) is a win imo. 

Expand  

Good point about climo...what part of CT are you in? I guess when we have a pattern much more favorable than climo temp wise anyway you hope you can cash in with like a 6-10" type deal regardless of the calendar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 8:00 PM, mahk_webstah said:

Would that lead to a ridge bridge from Greenland to Alaska and a -pna or maybe the trough swings east under blocking?

Expand  

NAO blocking feels unlikely given how strong the PV is. But what frequently happens when you have an AK ridge that poleward is the eastern ridge becomes flatter with time. So you end up with a gradient pattern with a lot of cold spilling over the top. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 8:05 PM, ORH_wxman said:

NAO blocking feels unlikely given how strong the PV is. But what frequently happens when you have an AK ridge that poleward is the eastern ridge becomes flatter with time. So you end up with a gradient pattern with a lot of cold spilling over the top. 

Expand  

That’s a straight up winner up here and in sne 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 8:01 PM, H2Otown_WX said:

Good point about climo...what part of CT are you in? I guess when we have a pattern much more favorable than climo temp wise anyway you hope you can cash in with like a 6-10" type deal regardless of the calendar.

Expand  

I’m in East Hartford. I’d love to get an advisory event by mid-month and a warning level event by the end. That’d put me right around normal for the month. I’m always more bothered by a storm underperforming than a modeled pattern not popping a low. The tangible losses hurt me the most. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it. 

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
  • 100% 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 8:23 PM, weatherwiz said:

I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it. 

Expand  

I look pretty much on track right now ...probably end up too warm in December, but not bad. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 8:23 PM, weatherwiz said:

I don't care if its November 25th, December 8th, or February 10th...if the pattern you're in is supposedly favorable for snow and storms and you don't cash in during those periods...it's going to be awfully difficult to at least finish the season near average. Our seasons which are right around average and especially above-average, not only are we cashing in on the pattern but we're taking full advantage of it. 

Expand  

Going to more to this...

especially the farther south you are in the region. Obviously northern New England and higher elevations its much easier to snow, even in meh patterns or unfavorable storm tracks for those south in the region. You better cash in in the opportunities. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/1/2024 at 8:07 PM, mahk_webstah said:

nobody responded to Scott’s woof but maybe it’s this?

Expand  

It was just a comment on the euro. Haven’t seen ensembles. Not much to add from what Will said other than that can lead to high-pressure drilling down low level cold. We shall see, I’m not gonna get excited until I know it’s imminent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...