December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not good

I suspect you understand very well what he is saying....the implication is a consistently favorable, Pacific driven pattern. I defend you from time to time, but that is clearly a poor attempt at trolling. A strong PV in this case is not a big deal.

 

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, George001 said:

This doesn’t feel like the last 2 winters at all. December was a torch last year, the first 2 weeks at least look legitimately cold with strong ridging out west. The pacific is much, much more favorable. I guess the risk is a 22-23 scenario? Honestly December 22 was pretty good, colder than average with plenty of storms. Honestly think we just got a bit unlucky there, roll the dice with that look and we get more snow 9/10 times. The issue with 22-23 was Jan and Feb torched when the NAO broke down. Just endless western troughing. The pacific looks a lot more favorable than Dec 2022 for this upcoming pattern. What happens after is unclear, but these next couple weeks we have a legitimate shot at significant snows.

Good summatization and agree. 2022 is a very strong polar analog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, George001 said:

Sounds favorable for a -EPO/+NAO pattern. This is why I believe writing this coming winter off was a mistake. Yeah with the high solar activity there was support for a strong PV/+NAO/+AO winter. The latest guidance and current conditions support this, the pattern turns +NAO fairly quickly and the PV is expected to remain very strong into Jan. The signs are there that both the +NAO and the -EPO could be kind of stubborn.

If the -EPO/+NAO recurs throughout winter that bodes well for our snow prospects in New England. History that has been a very snowy pattern for New England. Less so for the Mid Atlantic. 

Yea, I went with more -WPO than -EPO, but same general idea. Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Without even considering the Pacific, a strong PV can still result in a good pattern depending on if and in which direction its stretched. Much of the guidance has had it tilted right in the direction of the NE, much like December 2007. Take a look st that month....veey strong PV and near records snows.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well it was supposed to . He’s acting like he’s seen a flurry 

Kev... Get a grip on yourself. You're falling to piece's man. I think one good Snow event will pick you back up off the floor. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Without even considering the Pacific, a strong PV can still result in a good pattern depending on if and in which direction its stretched. Much of the guidance has had it tilted right in the direction of the NE, much like December 2007. Take a look st that month....veey strong PV and near records snows.

if you have a good Pacific pattern, you kinda actually WANT a strong PV so you can displace and elongate it. if it’s torn to shreds or there’s a SSW and it gets sent to Asia, that’s often not as cold

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you have a good Pacific pattern, you kinda actually WANT a strong PV so you can displace and elongate it. if it’s torn to shreds or there’s a SSW and it gets sent to Asia, that’s often not as cold

If its in Aisa or Eurasia, sure, but a displacement on this side of the globe is fine.

[WinterWolf]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If its in Aisa or Eurasia, sure, but a displacement on this side of the globe is fine.

I think that’s what he’s saying…you’re both saying the same thing. He’s agreeing with you the way I read it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I think that’s what he’s saying…you’re both saying the same thing. He’s agreeing with you the way I read it. 

I know, but I'm just elaborating by pointing out that SSW have a great deal of variation...some are great, while others can end winter. Safest bet is a nice Pacific...agreed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Got a dusting tonight....first flakes. 

[DavisStraight]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Got a dusting tonight....first flakes. 

Same here, just took out the trash and have a light coating, first flakes.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know, but I'm just elaborating by pointing out that SSW have a great deal of variation...some are great, while others can end winter. Safest bet is a nice Pacific...agreed.

Ahh ok. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Same here, just took out the trash and have a light coating, first flakes.

Yea, that is how I found out lol Taking out the trash

[WxWatcher007]

No coating here but some back deck stickage briefly. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Just looked at my deck and we have a dusting here. 

[kdxken]

 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s try to get the gfs coastal in here after that clipper thingy. 

[CoastalWx]

After the 10-12 or so seems like we lose this pattern.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

After the 10-12 or so seems like we lose this pattern.

Looking like a relaxtion period mid December.  Hopefully it doesn't last too long.

 

Have to see where the MJO ends up. Not looking good for a long period for this month. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looking like a relaxtion period mid December.  Hopefully it doesn't last too long.

 

Have to see where the MJO ends up. Not looking good for a long period for this month. 

Let’s pull a couple of dustings to show for this current pattern lol. Maybe we can get that gfs coastal. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s pull a couple of dustings to show for this current pattern lol. Maybe we can get that gfs coastal. 

There are alot of forecasters out there who think we will not be getting a milder pattern towards mid month . They might he wrong.

 

MJO going into the warmer phases along with the EPO rising and PNA falling. 

[mitchnick]

Even with the relaxation period, ensembles maintain a trough over or near Japan, which imho suggests the favorable pattern will return in some form or another aftet a few weeks.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

There are alot of forecasters out there who think we will not be getting a milder pattern towards mid month . They might he wrong.

 

MJO going into the warmer phases along with the EPO rising and PNA falling. 

MJO goes to P6-7 so not necessarily a torch look. We’ll mild up mid month but I don’t think it’s a massive torch. At least right now. 
 

Whatever, that was sort of expected, but seems like we have limited chances to  cash in between now and then. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

MJO goes to P6-7 so not necessarily a torch look. We’ll mild up mid month but I don’t think it’s a massive torch. At least right now. 
 

Whatever, that was sort of expected, but seems like we have limited chances to  cash in between now and then. 

You have a better chance than I do with the clipper. 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

MJO goes to P6-7 so not necessarily a torch look. We’ll mild up mid month but I don’t think it’s a massive torch. At least right now. 
 

Whatever, that was sort of expected, but seems like we have limited chances to  cash in between now and then. 

The fear was the ridge being to far east which seems to be the issue now. Hopefully the gfs is correct by ejecting that energy out west for the costal. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You have a better chance than I do with the clipper. 

 Was hoping for a couple of more meaty opportunities.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not shocking 

[qg_omega]

You can't miss windows in winter, this is a big one.

[Layman]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not shocking 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The fear was the ridge being to far east which seems to be the issue now. Hopefully the gfs is correct by ejecting that energy out west for the costal. 

That’s what some of us have been saying all along but one can be attacked by a pack of wolves if you’re not APATT. 
 

Need that 10th to work out, these windows are precious.