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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

FXWX

By FXWX,
in New England

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alex
alex

Got home to some light snow but really beautiful scenery. Trees are plastered. About 7” at the stake (can’t see it too well)  

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Kev and Berg holding hands and whispering “cold and dry, cold and dry” to each other in a corner as inneedsnow closes in.

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

I don’t say woof when something looks good like some child. I’ll use some mature comment like pants tent or something like that. 

Posted Images

weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Didn’t look as good as 12z but it wasn’t that different. Shortwave wasn’t quite as sharp. 

Yeah I just looked at it wasn’t much different. We’ll see a million different variations in how sharp it is and other details between now and next week. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

So we get a few flurries and snow showers. I expected to see accumulating snow based on the posts today. Why can’t we ever snow and catch a break? 

By middle of next, good ensemble agreement that a polar short wave
dives southeast and may be accompanied by scattered snow showers
(rain showers possible south coast) in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Again,
mean trough axis appears too far east for any wave development to
impact SNE. Behind the departing polar short wave, probably the
coldest air of the season overspreads SNE late next week and/or next
weekend.
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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So we get a few flurries and snow showers. I expected to see accumulating snow based on the posts today. Why can’t we ever snow and catch a break? 

By middle of next, good ensemble agreement that a polar short wave
dives southeast and may be accompanied by scattered snow showers
(rain showers possible south coast) in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Again,
mean trough axis appears too far east for any wave development to
impact SNE. Behind the departing polar short wave, probably the
coldest air of the season overspreads SNE late next week and/or next
weekend.

 looking more like post Dec. 20th for anything significant outside of CNE/NNE.  QPF won't be much of an issue so there's always the risk of a SNE elevation big 'un, after the dry spell

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So we get a few flurries and snow showers. I expected to see accumulating snow based on the posts today. Why can’t we ever snow and catch a break? 

By middle of next, good ensemble agreement that a polar short wave
dives southeast and may be accompanied by scattered snow showers
(rain showers possible south coast) in the Wed/Thu timeframe. Again,
mean trough axis appears too far east for any wave development to
impact SNE. Behind the departing polar short wave, probably the
coldest air of the season overspreads SNE late next week and/or next
weekend.

Snowing in Massachusetts . That's what the nutmeg non-believers get.

Screenshot_20241129_192644_Chrome.jpg

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need that or the one behind it to work out because the mid month big rainer lurks…

I’m locking that in already. I’m sure we’ll whiff on the clipper and that Rainer will be nailed from 2 weeks out.

The vibe feels like a continuation of the last half decade 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Need that or the one behind it to work out because the mid month big rainer lurks…

We'll see, mid-month is intriguing, obviously closer to the coast there is still some unfavorable climo to contend with but at least there is a pretty low probability for a cutter. Just keep the period of interest now and then can focus on the details as we get closer. It's great seeing a pattern where northern stream energy is digging well into the southeast.

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 looking more like post Dec. 20th for anything significant outside of CNE/NNE.  QPF won't be much of an issue so there's always the risk of a SNE elevation big 'un, after the dry spell

We may not get anything out of it, but we should have at least 1 shot at a significant nor’easter before then based on the 500mb pattern advertised across guidance.

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted

This doesn’t feel like the last 2 winters at all. December was a torch last year, the first 2 weeks at least look legitimately cold with strong ridging out west. The pacific is much, much more favorable. I guess the risk is a 22-23 scenario? Honestly December 22 was pretty good, colder than average with plenty of storms. Honestly think we just got a bit unlucky there, roll the dice with that look and we get more snow 9/10 times. The issue with 22-23 was Jan and Feb torched when the NAO broke down. Just endless western troughing. The pacific looks a lot more favorable than Dec 2022 for this upcoming pattern. What happens after is unclear, but these next couple weeks we have a legitimate shot at significant snows.

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George001

George001

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Screenshot_20241129_193211_X.jpg

Sounds favorable for a -EPO/+NAO pattern. This is why I believe writing this coming winter off was a mistake. Yeah with the high solar activity there was support for a strong PV/+NAO/+AO winter. The latest guidance and current conditions support this, the pattern turns +NAO fairly quickly and the PV is expected to remain very strong into Jan. The signs are there that both the +NAO and the -EPO could be kind of stubborn.

If the -EPO/+NAO recurs throughout winter that bodes well for our snow prospects in New England. History that has been a very snowy pattern for New England. Less so for the Mid Atlantic. 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well it was supposed to . He’s acting like he’s seen a flurry 

BOX drunk

  

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

6 PM Update:

Short wave trough moving across PA this evening and generating
scattered rain/snow showers downstream across eastern NY into
western CT/MA. Lots of low level dry air across SNE with current
dew pts in the 20s, yielding cloud bases in the 5000-8000 ft.
Thus, much of this activity is drying up as it traverse SNE.
Hence, most locations remain dry this evening, with little if
any impacts (sprinkles and/or flurries
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