December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Take off the TERISK... and add another S

[alex]

10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

43/32F  Not that any of you are interested in tonight but it is sure warm today.  Even at my elevation this is going to be hard to get snow to stick.

Was having the same thought here. 38/28, forecast high was 34 so quite a bit warmer

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

maybe start with the thermometer and go from there ?

lol its currently 41   actually cooler than any model has us right now 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, alex said:

Was having the same thought here. 38/28, forecast high was 34 so quite a bit warmer

Unfortunately our primary driver of temps was not advection but latent cooling. Always a risky proposition. Forcing got weaker, precip intensity is lower, less metling/cooling at the surface.

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Tonight has turned to mostly rain even in the interior of NNE.

like I said globals vs mesos but I know you cherry pick everything

[ineedsnow]

@jbenedet   Euro is 3 degrees to warm here right now...

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

@jbenedet   Euro is 3 degrees to warm here right now...

 

I like the way you are fighting this battle 

[Prismshine Productions]

46.2 down here in the valley off a high of 48.6

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

like I said globals vs mesos but I know you cherry pick everything

That looks putrid

[weatherwiz]

It's pretty warm up around 2000-3000 feet. Have to watch how quickly we can cool the llvls. Not sure sfc temps right now matter too much. Still think there will be a narrow band of heavy snow but farther north than I was thinking yesterday. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, dendrite said:

That looks putrid

Yeah that looks mostly like white rain....maybe if you got above 1200 or 1500 feet it would be better, but that's not what you want to see for accumulations.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

That looks putrid

ya its close but he makes it seem like it will rain to Montreal.. Always warm warm warm but when something good comes along he's nowhere to be found..

[H2Otown_WX]

I mean, I'm no expert but that evolution on the GFS is something that just doesn't happen...especially without a -NAO. I'd heavily favor the non-event the Euro shows at this juncture.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that looks mostly like white rain....maybe if you got above 1200 or 1500 feet it would be better, but that's not what you want to see for accumulations.

I'm over a 1,000 here and a couple miles down the road rises to above 1,200 I'll take my chances on tonight 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I'm over a 1,000 here and a couple miles down the road rises to above 1,200 I'll take my chances on tonight 

Good luck....I'd prob go a C-1" there....leaning toward C at the moment.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Good luck....I'd prob go a C-1" there....leaning toward C at the moment.

hoping for a inch or so mainly on the grass but think it will be close..

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I mean, I'm no expert but that evolution on the GFS is something that just doesn't happen...especially without a -NAO. I'd heavily favor the non-event the Euro shows at this juncture.

We develop a defacto west based -NAO though shortly after Xmas, so I wouldn't be shocked to see some blocky/wacky solutions between now and then.

 

Here's today's Euro between D8-11....you can see all those higher heights up in Canada expanding into the NAO domain....its not your classic NAO ridge back building from the Atlantic, but it may still offer some chances for storms provided the colder airmass gets trapped a bit underneath it

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah discussed that earlier

it's an emerging/evolving aspect with the telecons.   the sources are differentiating toward more nao, run to run... while pancaking the pna.  

paraphrasing, it's actually the canonical transition from a -(wpo/epo)  +pna hemisphere.  when the pna griddles there's a lag correlation to the onset of nao. 

it really doesn't reduce your storm frequency - it just transitions the storm modes. 

[Kitz Craver]

EURO not too interested in the Christmas threat…

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

EURO not too interested in the Christmas threat…

It was a bit more east, but I'd say all three models show something on the table.

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We develop a defacto west based -NAO though shortly after Xmas, so I wouldn't be shocked to see some blocky/wacky solutions between now and then.

 

Here's today's Euro between D8-11....you can see all those higher heights up in Canada expanding into the NAO domain....its not your classic NAO ridge back building from the Atlantic, but it may still offer some chances for storms provided the colder airmass gets trapped a bit underneath it

 

 

Reminds me more of a Nino December look with big height anomalies in Canada and near to lower then normal heights south of 39N or so. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

43/32F  Not that any of you are interested in tonight but it is sure warm today.  Even at my elevation this is going to be hard to get snow to stick.

not expecting more than 1" here. high of 47.1F

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, alex said:

Was having the same thought here. 38/28, forecast high was 34 so quite a bit warmer

looks like you moved your cam. cool spot. you need snow

[alex]

3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

looks like you moved your cam. cool spot. you need snow

Oh yeah. These warm storms are not kind to us

[WinterWolf]

52 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya its close but he makes it seem like it will rain to Montreal.. Always warm warm warm but when something good comes along he's nowhere to be found..

Can you say Troll…

[powderfreak]

Started as light snow at 1500ft.  Wet bulb of 31F currently.

[weathafella]

5 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Kind of the reverse for 2015 here. 93-94 was a record breaker here, and 2015 was a record breaker there. 

Well if you just look at Boston and metro west, 1993-94 was a major all timer.  Certainly in my top 3 experienced as is 2014-15 and probably 1960-61.   1995-96 goes to #4 due to the spectacular melts-lasting for weeks.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well if you just look at Boston and metro west, 1993-94 was a major all timer.  Certainly in my top 3 experienced as is 2014-15 and probably 1960-61.   1995-96 goes to #4 due to the spectacular melts-lasting for weeks.

Oh I can understand that…was just responding to Rays post about 93-94.  93-94 and 95-96 were historic record breaking here. 14-15 was not record breaking here(it was very good), but not historic by a good margin. That one was eastern SNE- BOSTON’s record breaker. 

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well if you just look at Boston and metro west, 1993-94 was a major all timer.  Certainly in my top 3 experienced as is 2014-15 and probably 1960-61.   1995-96 goes to #4 due to the spectacular melts-lasting for weeks.

93-94 was my first winter in Boston. Man were my expectations irreversibly distorted.

The potential and actual results of this December remind me of a Jerod Mayo pre-season quote I heard on WEEI this morning: "1000% percent... we have a lot of cap space... ready to burn some cash"

[CoastalWx]

92-93 gave me a taste of good winters, but 93-94 was excellent. I did miss out on the 25-30" event by like 7 miles, but that was a fantastic winter.