December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[mahk_webstah]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let’s get it inside 5 days and I’ll pay attention 

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS goes wild with that low. Days of cold rain.

Maybe for you... 

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks good for up and in 

[Typhoon Tip]

well yeah ...probably not the place for it but the pattern heading into the new year and beyond is revealing in time.   

pretty significant multi-sourced ens ( and now showing up in long range op ) suggestion now that while we likely lose the -epo tendencies, this takes place in lieu of a -nao ( over the western limb of the domain, too ) emergence

that is actually rather canonical for a +pna collapsing toward neutral or even modestly negative, that blocking materializes in the nao domain.  this is what i've been trying to describe over years, that the nao is actually directed by the dispersion off the pacific ...etc... 

not sure ( obviously ) what that will mean in the dailies, but for winter enthusiasts ... it does imply at least we alleviate the implication for a complete winter regression scenario - that was actually hinted through a couple days ago ( in guidance ..) for the times after xmas, because it there was less signal over eastern canada.

edit, actually this was the right thread lol

 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Maybe for you... 

Pretty mild for most with that look. Definitely want to be north and elevated I think through NY.

[CoastalWx]

Christ what a run for the Monads and srn VT. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Christ what a run for the Monads and srn VT. 

Hi

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[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Hi

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May need to be a little higher up elevation wise. But whatever at this point.

[Prismshine Productions]

May need to be a little higher up elevation wise. But whatever at this point.

Actually I am fine using the point and click (23 for me, higher on the mountain)

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[ORH_wxman]

We've been reduced to debating the 200 hour OP GFS run.

[Typhoon Tip]

actually this was the right thread..

anyway, that's a wildly storm prone look that's rather abruptly emerging out of the ens mean/sources ...

this operational gfs... obviously the details and dailies are not of much use at this range.  this is because there is a whole sale pattern change, moving from -(wpo/epo) +pna, into a neutral-postiive pna vestige under a robust western limbed -NAO.   that's inherently a stochastic performance arena for modeling in times like those...

but there's thread-able events potentially, as implied by the ens, so seeing it be that way is okay in principle.   the  thickness ( hydrostatic height ) gradient is quite steep between mt and the ov, and that's powder keg for pac waves that get forced through under the east canadian mode.

you guys are a bit beside yourselves for what appears to be a near miss here in the nearer term, but this system is really a positive result for the effort in recognition ( at least .. ) of the potential, so there's a huge positive take away that doesn't ( unfortunately ) d-drip .. but there's a behavior pattern going on that's sort of "intangible" that's better than worse - if that helps

[Prismshine Productions]

We've been reduced to debating the 200 hour OP GFS run.

At least it isn't insults, just all in good fun

Though, real talk, if the GFS varifies between now and New Years I would be at 63% of my seasonal snowfall (36.3" total)

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[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Any potential Christmas Eve/day deal looks like it would have temp issues especially south of pike 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Any potential Christmas Eve/day deal looks like it would have temp issues especially south of pike 

I was intrigued by that though. Even GFS initially was cool enough. 

[CoastalWx]

At least the period between now and NY is not a total torch and offers some interesting solutions. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Any potential Christmas Eve/day deal looks like it would have temp issues especially south of pike 

Well at a week out Brett, the usual caveats apply, so stay tuned. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

At least the period between now and NY is not a total torch and offers some interesting solutions. 

Yes, a nice change in solution from  4-5 days ago.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well yeah ...probably not the place for it but the pattern heading into the new year and beyond is revealing in time.   

pretty significant multi-sourced ens ( and now showing up in long range op ) suggestion now that while we likely lose the -epo tendencies, this takes place in lieu of a -nao ( over the western limb of the domain, too ) emergence

that is actually rather canonical for a +pna collapsing toward neutral or even modestly negative, that blocking materializes in the nao domain.  this is what i've been trying to describe over years, that the nao is actually directed by the dispersion off the pacific ...etc... 

not sure ( obviously ) what that will mean in the dailies, but for winter enthusiasts ... it does imply at least we alleviate the implication for a complete winter regression scenario - that was actually hinted through a couple days ago ( in guidance ..) for the times after xmas, because it there was less signal over eastern canada.

edit, actually this was the right thread lol

 

Makes sense, as @StormchaserChuck!has often cited the correlation between RNA/-NAO and +PNA/+NAO

[jbenedet]

Another 50+ degree day. 
 

really nice in the sun…

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

10 inches. IMBY.. i seriously doubt it lol. If we can get an inch I'd be totally happy

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Another 50+ degree day. 
 

really nice in the sun…

43 here, but the sun is nice however the clouds are starting to move in. Made for some outdoor work conditions today

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

10 inches. IMBY.. i seriously doubt it lol. If we can get an inch I'd be totally happy

I hate to be picky, but every Christmas Eve my sister has a huge deal at her house down in Fairfield. We live up in Plainville where the weather is always colder and more snow. The last thing I'd want is having to drive home in some snow storm Christmas Eve. But then the other side of me says I want snow for Christmas Eve Christmas Day LOL

[monadnocks]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

May need to be a little higher up elevation wise. But whatever at this point.

So higher than 1K?

[UnitedWx]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I hate to be picky, but every Christmas Eve my sister has a huge deal at her house down in Fairfield. We live up in Plainville where the weather is always colder and more snow. The last thing I'd want is having to drive home in some snow storm Christmas Eve. But then the other side of me says I want snow for Christmas Eve Christmas Day LOL

Yeah, I have relatives who will be absent Christmas Eve if there's any sort of snow. Oh well... more shrimp cocktail for me! They know I'll be there no matter what, Power Wagon FTW!

[wxeyeNH]

43/32F  Not that any of you are interested in tonight but it is sure warm today.  Even at my elevation this is going to be hard to get snow to stick.

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Another 50+ degree day. 
 

really nice in the sun…

[ineedsnow]

I hope the mesos have a clue for here tonight 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, monadnocks said:

So higher than 1K?

Tough to get specific this far out. I was just speaking overall. I couldn't say if 600' or 1500' mattered.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I hope the mesos have a clue for here tonight 

maybe start with the thermometer and go from there ?

[jbenedet]

Tonight has turned to mostly rain even in the interior of NNE.