December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I get that but If this 2015 pattern doesn’t produce beyond a 1-2” clipper that covers the brooklyn cop’s weenie, then what will…?

 

There’s nothing modeled that is interesting. Maybe something pops up. I have yet to see a flurry 

[Prismshine Productions]

When do you think you’ll learn not to post d16 op model gifs?  You’re no longer a rookie.  Step it up!

Will mentioned it first, his comment about the clown range is what made me even look

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[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Holy split flow

Sometimes bigger is not better?  Puns aside, I'm not always a fan of highly anomalous features trying to deliver.  Potential to squash a storm event in increases.  Fun to watch for sure, especially compared to lots of failed early winter patterns of late.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s nothing modeled that is interesting. Maybe something pops up. I have yet to see a flurry 

If only November was a winter month.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If only November was a winter month.

WTF is wrong with you?  Winter starts Labor Day and ends when we install 3/1.

[weathafella]

Shorts and t’s today.  Warm and muggy in Houston.  Friday home flight looks fine with the speed of the Thanksgiving system. Then we hunker.

[Prismshine Productions]

12z GEFS kept us BN temp wise for the entire run

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[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Unfortunate timing that you didn’t get back to CT for 2017-18. That was a very good winter too. 

I had forgotten....61" here, which is good work for us.  The fun began on 12/9....snowstorm during Army/Navy game, ended April 2.

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

12z GEFS kept us BN temp wise for the entire run

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[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

12z GEFS kept us BN temp wise for the entire run

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Eps looks really good

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps looks really good

 

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Swordfish captains.

[cleetussnow]

Lake effect measured in yards.  

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Swordfish captains.

If someone offered us 8-10” of snow between now and 12/12, I think most of us would take it in SNE. There was prob a time I’d rather roll the dice, but not now. 
 

NNE a different story since many will get warning snowfall tomorrow. 

[bwt3650]

It is so refreshing to see this look coming up in December. Even if we somehow don't get much, just nice to see the ridge out west. I am so bloody effing sick of seeing blues from Bering Sea to Baja CA.

Has the rise from the ashes begun?


.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If someone offered us 8-10” of snow between now and 12/12, I think most of us would take it in SNE. There was prob a time I’d rather roll the dice, but not now. 
 

NNE a different story since many will get warning snowfall tomorrow. 

I was just kidding around. The map was funny. 

 

I'll take that map and run nude.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, bwt3650 said:

Has the rise from the ashes begun?


.

I've risen for a couple weeks now. These last two winters were extremely harsh on my attitude, but hopefully we can cash in. Next thing to work on for the surface, are Scooter highs...but that is more in the 1-5 day period.

[eduggs]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If someone offered us 8-10” of snow between now and 12/12, I think most of us would take it in SNE. There was prob a time I’d rather roll the dice, but not now. 
 

1. Most of the ens modeled snow comes in weenie range outside of NNE.

2. StormVista snow maps are inflated by approx. a factor of 2.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, eduggs said:

1. Most of the ens modeled snow comes in weenie range outside of NNE.

2. StormVista snow maps are inflated by approx. a factor of 2.

Hence why we call them clown maps and clown range. 

[weatherwiz]

The lake effect snow is going to be epic

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hence why we call them clown maps and clown range. 

No.
Some snow accumulation maps accurately convert modeled liquid precipitation to snow at a 10:1 ratio. StormVistaWx does not. So it's in a different category altogether from other so called clown maps. Hopefully this is understood when people consider what they would take in terms of fantasy snowfall.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, eduggs said:

No.
Some snow accumulation maps accurately convert modeled liquid precipitation to snow at a 10:1 ratio. StormVistaWx does not. So it's in a different category altogether from other so called clown maps. Hopefully this is understood when people consider what they would take in terms of fantasy snowfall.

Incorrect x10000000000000

[Prismshine Productions]

accurately convert

*Extremely loud incorrect buzzer noises*

Systems are fluid and dynamic, the tiniest tenth of a degree in the midlayers at a random point (for example, 715-735) can throw off the ratio that actually accumulate. 10:1 can help guess upper-ene impacts under *ideal* conditions, but far from accurate conversion

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[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Incorrect x10000000000000

Obviously all snow maps are coarse approximations because many factors affect snow accumulation. But some algorithms are semi-accurate at identifying ptype under most conditions and then multiplying QPF by 10.

StormVista is different. It will show 4" of snow based on 2 tenths of liquid and a min temps of 37F. StormVista snow maps are garbage and distinctly worse than most other maps. This is a relatively simple and hopefully non-controversial point.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

No.
Some snow accumulation maps accurately convert modeled liquid precipitation to snow at a 10:1 ratio. StormVistaWx does not. So it's in a different category altogether from other so called clown maps. Hopefully this is understood when people consider what they would take in terms of fantasy snowfall.

I don’t take them seriously either way. So it’s not really an interesting detail to parse to me.
 

But I’ve def heard the SV maps have a reputation for being overdone. But then again, 10 to 1 is often overdone for various reasons too whether models overdo QPF or snow growth is bad or temps are marginal. Sometimes they’re underdone on occasion when snow growth is good. 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The lake effect snow is going to be epic

Heartbreaker that I can’t be there lol

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Obviously all snow maps are coarse approximations because many factors affect snow accumulation. But some algorithms are semi-accurate at identifying ptype under most conditions and then multiplying QPF by 10.

StormVista is different. It will show 4" of snow based on 2 tenths of liquid and a min temps of 37F. StormVista snow maps are garbage and distinctly worse than most other maps. This is a relatively simple and hopefully non-controversial point.

Which is dumb, that's not how snowfall or accumulations work. 

Snowgrowth and cloud processes are extremely important as is the degree of lift into the snowgrowth zone, wind, type of snowflakes (well that goes with snowgrowth) and thermal profile. These factor greatly into the snowfall ratio which also isn't a constant throughout the storm, the snowfall ratio is going to vary and sometimes greatly. 

You can't just assume ptype and multiply by 10 and none of these fancy algorithms factor in what's most important.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Heartbreaker that I can’t be there lol

I would really love to witness some EPIC LES one day. 

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

*Extremely loud incorrect buzzer noises*

Systems are fluid and dynamic, the tiniest tenth of a degree in the midlayers at a random point (for example, 715-735) can throw off the ratio that actually accumulate. 10:1 can help guess upper-ene impacts under *ideal* conditions, but far from accurate conversion

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You and your dumb ass buzzer are confusing yourselves.

Whether a 10-1 ratio is correct is irrelevant to the point. When a snow map shows "total snowfall at 10:1", the primary model parameter in question is QPF, not accumulated snow. The secondary model parameter, which is often calculated by 3rd party algorithm, is ptype.

If a model correctly predicts QPF and ptype, a snowfall map that multiplies liquid equivalent by 10 and displays it as total snowfall at 10:1 would be absolutely correct. It just might not be an accurate prediction.

Some 3rd party maps do this task pretty well. StormVista does not.

[eduggs]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t take them seriously either way. So it’s not really an interesting detail to parse to me.
 

But I’ve def heard the SV maps have a reputation for being overdone. But then again, 10 to 1 is often overdone for various reasons too whether models overdo QPF or snow growth is bad or temps are marginal. Sometimes they’re underdone on occasion when snow growth is good. 

A factor of 2 is a big difference IMO when people still post SV maps on this board and then you start referencing those maps. Go check how StormVista compares to Pivotal or TropicalTidbits or whatever others are out there in terms of snowfall.

Yes 10:1 is an arbitrary starting point. But if you don't get that part right, your starting point makes it hopeless to even be in the right ballpark.