December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[jbenedet]

Bangor Maine with a 50F this morning. That should be good for a +15....

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We'll forever be trying to kick the 2015 football.

I can't even kick a beach ball with clown shoes.

[weatherwiz]

27 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll gladly pull the snow stake out with the Christmas lights in a couple weeks.

Time to start gearing up for severe season. May is getting close

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking forward to the warmth. If it’s not going to snow, let it be mild. 

But you know it won’t work out that way in the end, we will end up with low 40s and clouds. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Time to start gearing up for severe season. May is getting close

135 days until a slightly warmer drizzle. 

[ineedsnow]

12z NAM is really flat tomorrow night

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dendrite said:

135 days until a slightly warmer drizzle. 

Perhaps for you. 

Down here we'll be in 70's and 80's and watching dews climb

[ineedsnow]

snows for most north of the pike

[NorEastermass128]

Windows open. Fresh air in. 

[ineedsnow]

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

snows for most north of the pike

Caveat = NAM

[ineedsnow]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Caveat = NAM

it was furthest north probably a over correction 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

snows for most north of the pike

There could be a narrow zone of some heavy, wet snow. 

[ineedsnow]

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There could be a narrow zone of some heavy, wet snow. 

just that the 12z HRRR really likes my area to hmmm 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

just that the 12z HRRR really likes my area to hmmm 

Temperatures are going to be a huge issue but I would think on the guidance coming in we could see a narrow, intense fronto band and that may be enough to help overcome questionable temperatures. That's a pretty sharp gradient and with developing/strengthening sfc low there should be a potent fronto band. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

The warmth ahead is impressive, but to me the lack of cold behind these fronts is the more interesting story. Keep in mind this is *while* the pacific is cooperating...

Have to go way up into UP of Michigan or far interior Ontario to even find temps at freezing...

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#

 

you didn't ask for this op ed but ... i began to opine, about 15 years ago, that we seemed to be losing ability to sustain marginal cold (relative to climatology). 

the evidences of this were nuanced in the early years - probably less detected or noticeable by those with heads buried in the proverbial winter sand. but mixy events began to 'flop' over to wet more than they used to, for example.  or, like today ... when extinguishing a cold supply we burst high.   we were becoming increasingly more reliant on 'direct feed,' otherwise, the base-line is above average;  just a matter of how much or how little in this latter aspect, which is wholly guided by the pattern foot at the times ...   

this last week is an innocuous sort of example of this.  we had an upstream in time and space, -epo cold load.  said load effectively 'drained' from the mid latitude continent (used up for lack of better phrase) and we are immediately now finding a way to a 57 pig day.   57?  ...it's 54 already.   which enters a subtle addendum to all of this. usually we also go above guidance by at least decimals if not intervals of whole degrees, too.   we may touch 60? i haven't been paying too close of attention to the day's synopsis because there were bigger fish to smack us across the face with ( while counting what we get to fry haha ) ... maybe this is a cap high 

anyway ...we'll settle back to just being above normal tomorrow by some unnoticed amount, but it will be above normal until we get a direct feed.

Feb 2015 obscured any discussion to not happening, because it was 10f for three straight weeks or something ludicrously negative - but really ... that stretch only made my point.  it was an unrelenting hugely negative sd epo/low amplitude +pna that intombed us in a reality avoidance about climate -

the more i look back at this last 20 or 30 years...  i remember discussion about how the climate zones, moving inevitably north up the eastern seasboard, was promoted with dialogue about how you won't notice when you've crossed thresholds - you'll just sort of notice one day that your fucked for ever getting back to your nostalgia.   well ?   if the shoe fits.   i spend time in the mid atlantic every late autumn since the late 1990s (...fam/holidays..etc...) what i've experienced, particularly the last 4 years, is beginning to remind me of morristown nj.  it's almost spot on, really.  my sister, "...yeah, we get cold ... maybe even some snow, rarely. but it's gone the next day and two days later its kind of mild"    sound familiar?  struck me as so when she said it. 

[Torch Tiger]

25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Time to start gearing up for severe season. May is getting close

Maybe svr watches and warnings to track sooner than a snow? Hopefully feb/mar

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Maybe svr watches and warnings to track sooner than a snow? Hopefully feb/mar

wouldn't rule that out 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll gladly pull the snow stake out with the Christmas lights in a couple weeks.

Ground should be thawed again by then so i don't see a problem getting it out.

[wxeyeNH]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you didn't ask for this op ed but ... i began to opine, about 15 years ago, that we seemed to be losing ability to sustain marginal cold (relative to climatology). 

the evidences of this were nuanced in the early years - probably less detected or noticeable by those with heads buried in the proverbial winter sand. but mixy events began to 'flop' over to wet more than they used to, for example.  or, like today ... when extinguishing a cold supply we burst high.   we were becoming increasingly more reliant on 'direct feed,' otherwise, the base-line is above average;  just a matter of how much or how little in this latter aspect, which is wholly guided by the pattern foot at the times ...   

this last week is an innocuous sort of example of this.  we had a upstream in time and space, -epo cold load.  said load effectively 'drained' from the mid latitude continent (used up for lack of better phrase) and we are immediately now finding a way to a 57 pig day.   57?  ...it's 54 already.   which enters a subtle addendum to all of this. usually we also go above guidance by at least decimals if not intervals of whole degrees, too.   we may touch 60? i haven't been paying too close of attention to the day's synopsis because there were bigger fish to smack us across the face with ( while counting what we get to fry haha ) ... maybe this a cap high 

anyway ...we'll settle back to just being above normal tomorrow by some unnoticed amount, but it will be above normal until we get a direct feed.

Feb 2015 obscured any discussion to not happening, because it was 10f for three straight weeks or something ludicrously negative - but really ... that stretch only made my point.  it was an unrelenting hugely negative sd epo/low amplitude +pna that intombed us in a reality avoidance about climate -

the more i look back at this last 20 or 30 years...  i remember discussion about how the climate zones, moving inevitably north up the eastern seasboard, was promoted with dialogue about how you won't notice when you've crossed thresholds - you'll just sort of notice one day that your fucked for ever getting back to your nostalgia.   well ?   if the shoe fits.   i spend time in the mid atlantic every late autumn since the late 1990s (...fam/holidays..etc...) what we've experience, particularly the last 4 years, is beginning to remind me of morristown nj.  it's almost spot on, really.  my sister, "...yeah, we get cold ... maybe even some snow, rarely. but it's gone the next day and two days later its kind of mild"    sound familiar?  struck me as so when she said it. 

It becomes more obvious to people my age.  As a kid in the 1960s I kept pretty good records and it was much colder.  Climate change has been slow enough that most lay persons don't really notice it.  My 92 year old father recently passed away in my home town of Baltimore.  There were boxes of old slides from the 50s,60s and 70s.  My brother and I were just looking at them and in most winter pictures there was at least some snowcover around the house.  Multiple years, different months but way more often than not even the NW suburbs of Baltimore winters with lingering snowcover.

[jbenedet]

@Typhoon Tip 

There's so many knock on affects... We talk a lot about the gulf of maine....But something that I've started to key in on much more - reduction of sea ice in the great lakes and especially the Hudson bay. The hudson bay could pass for an ocean, given its scale in surface area. If this stays ice free longer, it's not just a shift of a few degrees, but probably 5-10 degrees given the arctic air that it's moderating on its way here...

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, jbenedet said:

@Typhoon Tip 

There's so many knock on affects... We talk a lot about the gulf of maine....But something that I've started to key in on much more - reduction of sea ice in the great lakes and especially the Hudson bay. The hudson bay could pass for an ocean, given its scale in surface area. If this stays ice free longer, it's not just a shift of a few degrees, but probably 5-10 degrees given the arctic air that it's moderating on its way here...

 

 

 

yes dude!  that is huge, the hudson bay 'marine heat wave'

...which, going forward may prove less like a heat wave and more like point of no return, but we'll see..  

but yes, i was noticing that this year in particular, but in previous years ...retarded recoveries in late autumn

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you didn't ask for this op ed but ... i began to opine, about 15 years ago, that we seemed to be losing ability to sustain marginal cold (relative to climatology). 

the evidences of this were nuanced in the early years - probably less detected or noticeable by those with heads buried in the proverbial winter sand. but mixy events began to 'flop' over to wet more than they used to, for example.  or, like today ... when extinguishing a cold supply we burst high.   we were becoming increasingly more reliant on 'direct feed,' otherwise, the base-line is above average;  just a matter of how much or how little in this latter aspect, which is wholly guided by the pattern foot at the times ...   

this last week is an innocuous sort of example of this.  we had an upstream in time and space, -epo cold load.  said load effectively 'drained' from the mid latitude continent (used up for lack of better phrase) and we are immediately now finding a way to a 57 pig day.   57?  ...it's 54 already.   which enters a subtle addendum to all of this. usually we also go above guidance by at least decimals if not intervals of whole degrees, too.   we may touch 60? i haven't been paying too close of attention to the day's synopsis because there were bigger fish to smack us across the face with ( while counting what we get to fry haha ) ... maybe this is a cap high 

anyway ...we'll settle back to just being above normal tomorrow by some unnoticed amount, but it will be above normal until we get a direct feed.

Feb 2015 obscured any discussion to not happening, because it was 10f for three straight weeks or something ludicrously negative - but really ... that stretch only made my point.  it was an unrelenting hugely negative sd epo/low amplitude +pna that intombed us in a reality avoidance about climate -

the more i look back at this last 20 or 30 years...  i remember discussion about how the climate zones, moving inevitably north up the eastern seasboard, was promoted with dialogue about how you won't notice when you've crossed thresholds - you'll just sort of notice one day that your fucked for ever getting back to your nostalgia.   well ?   if the shoe fits.   i spend time in the mid atlantic every late autumn since the late 1990s (...fam/holidays..etc...) what i've experienced, particularly the last 4 years, is beginning to remind me of morristown nj.  it's almost spot on, really.  my sister, "...yeah, we get cold ... maybe even some snow, rarely. but it's gone the next day and two days later its kind of mild"    sound familiar?  struck me as so when she said it. 

Great post!

[512high]

57F ASH shop Davis, jesus....

[NorEastermass128]

Parakeets and banana hammocks today. Get out and enjoy!

[tamarack]

0.41" here, taking the pack down to 8".  Currently in the 40s, probably pushing the pack down another 1-2".

The lack of sustained cold can be discouraging - the cold blast of early Feb 2023 lasted less than 36 hours even after setting a new WCI at MWN.  However, the cold spell as 2017 went into 2018 was worthy of northern Aroostook - only 7 years ago.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yes dude!  that is huge, the hudson bay 'marine heat wave'

...which, going forward may prove less like a heat wave and more like point of no return, but we'll see..  

but yes, i was noticing that this year in particular, but in previous years ...retarded recoveries in late autumn

This has always been my premise. When you look at similar ancient climate regimes with large inland bodies of water, you always find very warm subtropical flora and fauna well up into the mid and high latitudes. 

If you look at Cleveland, you can see traditionally it was zone 5 to cold zone 6, but now is firmly zone 7. 2023 was the first year [since 1960] with Zone 8 conditions. I don't put a whole lot of stock in the pre-1960 numbers due to a variety of reasons. Moving forward with these trends, it's reasonable to expect Zone 8 conditions to fully envelope this region by the latter half of this century. If warming continues, zones 9 to 10 look likely for next century. I've never seen a valid rebuttal to this. Only, oh shut up, Cleveland won't look like Miami. You are trolling.

[Torch Tiger]

58 rn at Salisbury beach, good stuff

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

58 rn at Salisbury beach, good stuff

Great day today. 

[Cyclone-68]

So now about 1,030 days since our last 4+ inch snowfall around here? (Eastern MA). That’s a pretty amazing statistic I think