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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s absolutely embarrassing the state of our old obs archives. It’s literally a bunch of text and we have trouble getting it. 

Does this site have them? They have a bunch of stuff but not sure if they have hourly METARs…maybe someone with more patience and time that’s I have today can search it  

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml

I used to grab old AFDs from here

They have archives of the current sites, but not the defunct ones.

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The 21st is the well-timed shortwave in terms of supportive cold in an overall AN pattern but the system is way south and suppressed on current GEFS and EPS guidance. IMO outside of interior NNE it’s the only one to watch with some mild interest. Cape scrape opportunity with this one…SE areas of the subforum favored here…

 

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10 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

10F  Meh.   Anyone old enough to remember the winters of yore?   I had about 15 nights below zero up here.  I think Concord NH had around ten.  Growing up in the 1960s and 1970s  it was fairly common to have -20F and -30F nights in NNE with good radiational cooling.

Still happens, but with less frequency.  I felt -30F up at Island Pond VT in the late 1990s.  Same house has had -40F

But yeah... these winters have been warm for sure, with occasional frigid nights.  My coldest here was -19F and that was fairly recently (same house since 1998) 

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

10F  Meh.   Anyone old enough to remember the winters of yore?   I had about 15 nights below zero up here.  I think Concord NH had around ten.  Growing up in the 1960s and 1970s  it was fairly common to have -20F and -30F nights in NNE with good radiational cooling.

In 94 I had 7 nights below zero with back-to-back -20 nights. Ice on the ponds were thick that year for ice fishing.

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Obviously this is just one piece to everything, but it can't be great seeing the PV becoming stronger and bottled up right in the Arctic. The entire northern Hemisphere virtually becomes above-average temperature wise and guess where the most anomalous warmth looks to occur...ahhh southeastern Canada. Almost looks strong Nino like upcoming

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Obviously this is just one piece to everything, but it can't be great seeing the PV becoming stronger and bottled up right in the Arctic. The entire northern Hemisphere virtually becomes above-average temperature wise and guess where the most anomalous warmth looks to occur...ahhh southeastern Canada. Almost looks strong Nino like upcoming
Eh, one bright thing to look at is that it will help ramp up the ice pack, the current +PNA pattern really been hurting ice growth, but will pay dividends next month before we torch after Valentine's Day

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Eh, one bright thing to look at is that it will help ramp up the ice pack, the current +PNA pattern really been hurting ice growth, but will pay dividends next month before we torch after Valentine's Day

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

meh I don't really buy into that whole ice growth/snow pack stuff. That is more of a reflection of the pattern versus something that is more of a pattern driver/builder. 

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Went out packing trails and clearing blow downs today, surprising amount of snow north and west of town, especially compared to my house 8 miles south with only a crusty 3 inches on the ground. Hoping for minimal rain Tuesday and some snow Thursday and into Christmas week. Another 8 Inches and we can make our first pass with the groomer 

470196088_992654422894910_80704365642395

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28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Obviously this is just one piece to everything, but it can't be great seeing the PV becoming stronger and bottled up right in the Arctic. The entire northern Hemisphere virtually becomes above-average temperature wise and guess where the most anomalous warmth looks to occur...ahhh southeastern Canada. Almost looks strong Nino like upcoming

I was seeing that as well. But looks like the PV will not consolidate as it will break up once again in two pieces. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024121512&fh=354. I go with the GEFS on this as the EPS is not good with the PV and the MJO. The GEPS showing the same thing as the GEFS. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2024121512&fh=348

 

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