December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The fear has been cold/dry first week with a little baby clipper or two second week and then when something bigger brews mid month, the pattern is too relaxed and you what happens… rainers for the holidays. 

I’ll take my chance after next week. I definitely have some concerns toward Christmas, but hopefully the MJO helps a bit by then.

[weatherwiz]

15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the lingering +AAM from the borderline super Nino last year seems to be having more of an impact

This is I find the response lag incredibly intriguing, something like that is pretty much impossible to predict. But we have certainly seen historically where there is that "atmosphere hangover" from the previous ENSO state when entering the opposite ENSO state. It's quite interesting how this occurs because that hangover seems to be more prominent moving into the cool season versus seeing it moreso in the warm season. Maybe it's just because there is more chaos in the cooler season. 

But any lingering +AAM with the background ENSO state we're in now...this is something that could vastly bust forecasts geared towards significantly warmer and less snowy in the Northeast. I'll take a +AAM with a near neutral or negative neutral ENSO and run.

[CoastalWx]

Ray mentioned 08-09. Just changed my undies.

[40/70 Benchmark]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the lingering +AAM from the borderline super Nino last year seems to be having more of an impact

We saw this in 1998, as well.

Its so cool how mother nature finds a means of balance.....remember how we had the El Nino with cool ENSO tendencies last year, now, we have a fledgling cool ENSO with El Nino tendencies, despite the MC favored regime of the past decade.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray mentioned 08-09. Just changed my undies.

Season won't be that cold, but ENSO is a very storng match....late blossoming, weak Modoki configuration. The east vs west with respect to ENSO is not really important when its weak.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is I find the response lag incredibly intriguing, something like that is pretty much impossible to predict. But we have certainly seen historically where there is that "atmosphere hangover" from the previous ENSO state when entering the opposite ENSO state. It's quite interesting how this occurs because that hangover seems to be more prominent moving into the cool season versus seeing it moreso in the warm season. Maybe it's just because there is more chaos in the cooler season. 

But any lingering +AAM with the background ENSO state we're in now...this is something that could vastly bust forecasts geared towards significantly warmer and less snowy in the Northeast. I'll take a +AAM with a near neutral or negative neutral ENSO and run.

The forcing is always more prominent during the cold season because all of the gradients steepen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Watch for a subtle STJ, too....a la 1995...(ducks and runs).

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Watch for a subtle STJ, too....a la 1995...(ducks and runs).

Yup...this. 

Definitely signs for this and not an overpowering one. 

It's pretty crazy how all of the cards seem to be lining up. Big change from the last few years...we're actually seeing subtle changes occur in real time, it's not like all of this stuff is and stays beyond D10. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray mentioned 08-09. Just changed my undies.

I have a boner at work

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I could see it lasting through the second week, but I'm with you... December may yet end up above average....I had +3 to +5F for December and we still could hit the lower end of that.

I do think a large scale shift in the Pacific is imminent and defintely tried to blend that into the December discourse.

These seconday nadirs during a Pacific Cold Phase usually signal the beginning of the end of the long term -PDO....the last strong El Nino before the 2023-2024 event that exhibited a great deal of cool ENSO proclivities was 1972-1973, which was also during the seconday cold phase nadir and was a followed by the longer term phase switch a few years later. The only other cool ENSO tobe preceeded by this strong of a WWB during the month of November was 1998, and this instance that Pacific disharmony marked a transition from warm to cold phase. This mismatching and flux in the tropics is the beginning of the end of this era as we know it. It will be history by the turn of the decade as sure as the word stein will vanish from Kev's lexicon after the first major snow.

 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...this. 

Definitely signs for this and not an overpowering one. 

It's pretty crazy how all of the cards seem to be lining up. Big change from the last few years...we're actually seeing subtle changes occur in real time, it's not like all of this stuff is and stays beyond D10. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=cha+cha+changes+lyrics&sca_esv=2ba1e0c14cc8627a&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS1049US1049&sxsrf=ADLYWILsNdjojrd0IuuOMlMGVOBd0-7rWg%3A1732717126141&ei=RipHZ_KtCP2JptQPo7nt8Qs&oq=cha+cha&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiB2NoYSBjaGEqAggAMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMggQLhiABBixAzIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBTIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYsQMyChAuGIAEGEMYigUyChAAGIAEGEMYigUyBRAAGIAESLocUABYrA5wAXgBkAEAmAGQAaAB_gSqAQM2LjG4AQHIAQD4AQGYAgigAqoFqAIUwgIHECMYJxjqAsICEBAAGAMYtAIY6gIYjwHYAQHCAgoQIxiABBgnGIoFwgINEC4YgAQYQxjUAhiKBcICExAuGIAEGMcBGCcYigUYjgUYrwHCAgQQIxgnwgIOEC4YgAQYxwEYjgUYrwHCAg0QLhiABBixAxhDGIoFmAMEugYGCAEQARgKkgcDNy4xoAexYQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:94077583,vid:4BgF7Y3q-as,st:0

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take my chance after next week. I definitely have some concerns toward Christmas, but hopefully the MJO helps a bit by then.

Not even really thinking about the holidays tbh. If we can get on the board in meaningful ways, that’s already a massive departure from recent December disasters. I just want to see productivity from a modeled pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have a boner at work

Interesting ride in the cruiser for some unassuming shoplifter....crime really doesn't pay.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not even really thinking about the holidays tbh. If we can get on the board in meaningful ways, that’s already a massive departure from recent December disasters. I just want to see productivity from a modeled pattern. 

My feelings completely. 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

My feelings completely. 

I don’t track hemispheric or regional winter wx patterns/signals like I do tropical, but I’m cautiously optimistic about December. 

[ORH_wxman]

It’s hard to get wire to wire sub-freezing (or close to it) cold in December. You’re usually going to have a few days of 45+ in SNE outside the elevations so I wouldn’t worry about trying to sustain the pattern all the way through new years. It’s unlikely.
 

But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, it’s only back to near normal temps or just slightly AN for second half of month when climo is colder anyway. 

 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t track hemispheric or regional winter wx patterns/signals like I do tropical, but I’m cautiously optimistic about December. 

Yes sir.  Let’s focus on the next two weeks for the time being…and let the long range guys worry about what comes after.  But I agree, it’s a promising look at the moment. 

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s hard to get wire to wire sub-freezing (or close to it) cold in December. You’re usually going to have a few days of 45+ in SNE outside the elevations so I wouldn’t worry about trying to sustain the pattern all the way through new years. It’s unlikely.
 

But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, it’s only back to near normal temps or just slightly AN for second half of month when climo is colder anyway. 

 

"But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, and manage to avoid being 50+ on Christmas".

[mreaves]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting ride in the cruiser for some unassuming shoplifter....crime really doesn't pay.

Officer, is that your nightstick or are you just happy about the 6Z GFS?

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Officer, is that your nightstick or are you just happy about the 6Z GFS?

Or excited for the EPS(Erection Policing syndrome)

[cleetussnow]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I have a boner at work

Yeah and?

[Boston Bulldog]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir.  Let’s focus on the next two weeks for the time being…and let the long range guys worry about what comes after.  But I agree, it’s a promising look at the moment. 

 

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Loving the contrast between “let’s focus on the next two weeks” and “this pattern might remain through next winter” on back to back posts.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

 

Loving the contrast between “let’s focus on the next two weeks” and “this pattern might remain through next winter” on back to back posts.

Ha ha…yup. Im of the attage that you concentrate on what’s in front of you first…but that’s just me.  

[weathafella]

Yeah I don’t see the value of hand wringing when we’re on the cusp of a good pattern.  We know it will relax at some point in December but as Will alluded to, the hope is it’s a relatively short and uneventful relaxation vs bathing suit weather.

[WxWatcher007]

The vibe in here is much different from yesterday. In a good way.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The vibe in here is much different from yesterday. In a good way.

Yes sir. 

[CoastalWx]

I don't think anything has changed. It's just that the weenies see a few threats on the globals. But it's a dangerous game to play with day 10+ threats on globals.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't think anything has changed. It's just that the weenies see a few threats on the globals. But it's a dangerous game to play with day 10+ threats on globals.

Yeah last night had a couple clippers and maybe an overrunning threat in clown range and all of the sudden the vibe is better, lol. 

But nothing is fundamentally different at all on guidance. Think of all those systems that try to get us at D10 with anice SFWE or overrunning look or even a coastal look and end up over BUF or inland runners once we get closer…that can happen to our benefit too in this type of pattern. Suppression turns into a coastal storm (saw a lot of that in 2015). 
 

Guidance isn’t going to to be able to sample shortwaves very easily over the Siberian arctic that then come over the WPO/EPO ridge into our domain that eventually become our threats. It’s just a hard thing for models to do that far out and especially in those data-sparse regions. 
 

None of this means we’re going to get a big snow event, but it does mean that we should relax a bit and wait until we get a lot closer to the meat of the pattern before worrying about individual threats. It’s easier said than done, understandably, when the last 2 winters have been hot garbage. 

[cleetussnow]

Can't have snow without cold, and we have cold coming into the picture. 

A lot of us are fans of snow, like a football team.  Last couple years we were all Jets fans sadly.  Maybe this year we can be Buffalo Bills fans (in December anyway).  Root for a winning team that actually has a shot.

 And don't mention ride right.  I'll come to your house.

[Snowcrazed71]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah last night had a couple clippers and maybe an overrunning threat in clown range and all of the sudden the vibe is better, lol. 

But nothing is fundamentally different at all on guidance. Think of all those systems that try to get us at D10 with anice SFWE or overrunning look or even a coastal look and end up over BUF or inland runners once we get closer…that can happen to our benefit too in this type of pattern. Suppression turns into a coastal storm (saw a lot of that in 2015). 
 

Guidance isn’t going to to be able to sample shortwaves very easily over the Siberian arctic that then come over the WPO/EPO ridge into our domain that eventually become our threats. It’s just a hard thing for models to do that far out and especially in those data-sparse regions. 
 

None of this means we’re going to get a big snow event, but it does mean that we should relax a bit and wait until we get a lot closer to the meat of the pattern before worrying about individual threats. It’s easier said than done, understandably, when the last 2 winters have been hot garbage. 

Totally agree. Proceeding with cautious optimism is the way to go. But I myself also have that flutter of of excitement . I think it's because the pattern looking ahead isn't s***. Can it change, yes. But right now it looks promising for at least an opportunity for some good things to come. 

I'd rather see the forum in this mode instead of the mode where we are getting on each other's nerves and attacking each other, but that comes with the territory I guess ( It's almost like family, we spend a lot of time with each other everyday, so we are bound to get on  each other's nerves. But then we get over it.

With that said, I have my armor on and my sword by my side.... in case I come on later and things have changed....lol