December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

With over a foot this month , this has been a good winter month. Not great , but good . It’s been cold and several good snow events. I was 100% wrong and I have a sneaking suspicion this winter might well be at or AN for snowfall looking at the progs ahead. This is how Dec is supposed to be. Dark, cold, snowy , low sun angle , holidays. Not the spring Morch stuff that melts before it stops falling and rapidly increasing daylight and temps and high sun angle 

I wouldn’t call it “cold” so far. The next few days will be decently BN, but we’ll wipe that out before NYD. Looks near normal when you average the region out. 

Through yesterday…

BDL +1.2
ORH +0.1
CON -0.4
BOS -0.4
PVD -1.2

[Prismshine Productions]

I wouldn’t call it “cold” so far. The next few days will be decently BN, but we’ll wipe that out before NYD. Looks near normal when you average the region out. 
Through yesterday…
BDL +1.2
ORH +0.1
CON -0.4
BOS -0.4
PVD -1.2

Better than last year's torch

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You have no snow at all? I see the grass through it, but there is at least a covering...

Sublimating away

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sublimating away

What did you end up with? 

[SouthCoastMA]

Maybe @CCHurricane and I can catch a few OE streamers Sunday Night / Monday, per the hi-res stuff. Looks pretty light, but could be festive in spots. D-1"?

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Better than last year's torch

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

That’s not my point though. We’ve been so warm for so long that we treat normal temps as cold now. This would be considered a torch month at some sites 25 years ago. I’d have to dig for the SNE Dec normals to see how much they changed though. The rad pits probably have the biggest change over the last 30 years. 
 

Anyway, down to 19/7 here with flurries. 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

What did you end up with? 

0.7” but a lousy sublimating 0.4” to show after it flipped to rain and then back to snows.

I’ve never seen such a gradient. I’m not kidding when I see a difference in my own neighborhood. Go 1.5 miles west and they have 2-3” plowing and all that. 
 

I went to Blue Hill with my son and his friend. Heading up 128 north (this segment goes due west for several miles before turning north in Canton) I could see  in the distance (less than a mile) the trees all caked with snow with nothing on the trees where we were. There was about 4” though in Randolph. Once I got west of where Rt 24 intersects, the landscape changed instantly. Everything caked in snow. To see it was to believe it. 
 

Blue hill had about 7-8” at the base and solid 8-9 on the top. I think that was the jack there in Milton. Bottom half of the snow had some girth, but not very wet and pasty. We hiked up and enjoyed what we could. Was the perfect winter wonderland. Lots of people doing the same. I saw Tim Kelly up there too, talking to people.  Blue hill is maybe 7.2 miles as the crow flies and it seemed like I got transported to Stowe.

 

Oh well. Paying dearly for past storms. Time to take a break and hope for something in January. So much time wasted for gut punches.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure where to put this as it may actually segue around the 30/31st ...   i lean jan 2nd but i'm pretty sure if i put this in that january thread it will be get missed.

from a purely telecon inference, there is a huge signal for the first week of january for actual winter storm.   

i get it that the epo is diving and so forth as others have also noted ...  but i'm not talking about just cold or a cold pattern signal.   i'm saying that there's a potential for something massive over the eastern mid latitude continent between the 31st and ~ jan 5 or 6.  

so obviously the coherency isn't very good so there's not much to comment or speculate after that.  it could be a big ordeal, or perhaps a series that cumulatively exhaust potential, but it's been a long while since a teleconnector convergence projection.  i can see several different correlating modalities, converging on jan 2 - if having to choose

Please, please be Jan 2...

[FXWX]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

0.7” but a lousy sublimating 0.4” to show after it flipped to rain and then back to snows.

I’ve never seen such a gradient. I’m not kidding when I see a difference in my own neighborhood. Go 1.5 miles west and they have 2-3” plowing and all that. 
 

I went to Blue Hill with my son and his friend. Heading up 128 north (this segment goes due west for several miles before turning north in Canton) I could see  in the distance (less than a mile) the trees all caked with snow with nothing on the trees where we were. There was about 4” though in Randolph. Once I got west of where Rt 24 intersects, the landscape changed instantly. Everything caked in snow. To see it was to believe it. 
 

Blue hill had about 7-8” at the base and solid 8-9 on the top. I think that was the jack there in Milton. Bottom half of the snow had some girth, but not very wet and pasty. We hiked up and enjoyed what we could. Was the perfect winter wonderland. Lots of people doing the same. I saw Tim Kelly up there too, talking to people.  Blue hill is maybe 7.2 miles as the crow flies and it seemed like I got transported to Stowe.

 

Oh well. Paying dearly for past storms. Time to take a break and hope for something in January. So much time wasted for gut punches.

Pretty amazing!

[CoastalWx]

I’ll try to post pics but have to delete all the great memories from previous attachments.

[Layman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not sure where to put this as it may actually segue around the 30/31st ...   i lean jan 2nd but i'm pretty sure if i put this in that january thread it will be get missed.

from a purely telecon inference, there is a huge signal for the first week of january for actual winter storm.   

i get it that the epo is diving and so forth as others have also noted ...  but i'm not talking about just cold or a cold pattern signal.   i'm saying that there's a potential for something massive over the eastern mid latitude continent between the 31st and ~ jan 5 or 6.  

so obviously the coherency isn't very good so there's not much to comment or speculate after that.  it could be a big ordeal, or perhaps a series that cumulatively exhaust potential, but it's been a long while since a teleconnector convergence projection.  i can see several different correlating modalities, converging on jan 2 - if having to choose

I enjoyed the early analysis thread of the long lead up to this last storm and would encourage you to run another for this threat if you found a benefit to it.  My only request would be to do your best to delay this arriving until around 1/10-1/20 as we'll be up at Bretton Woods 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Could go below zero for the first time this season either tonight or tomorrow.    I doubt it happens tonight but it will be cold. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

0.7” but a lousy sublimating 0.4” to show after it flipped to rain and then back to snows.

I’ve never seen such a gradient. I’m not kidding when I see a difference in my own neighborhood. Go 1.5 miles west and they have 2-3” plowing and all that. 
 

I went to Blue Hill with my son and his friend. Heading up 128 north (this segment goes due west for several miles before turning north in Canton) I could see  in the distance (less than a mile) the trees all caked with snow with nothing on the trees where we were. There was about 4” though in Randolph. Once I got west of where Rt 24 intersects, the landscape changed instantly. Everything caked in snow. To see it was to believe it. 
 

Blue hill had about 7-8” at the base and solid 8-9 on the top. I think that was the jack there in Milton. Bottom half of the snow had some girth, but not very wet and pasty. We hiked up and enjoyed what we could. Was the perfect winter wonderland. Lots of people doing the same. I saw Tim Kelly up there too, talking to people.  Blue hill is maybe 7.2 miles as the crow flies and it seemed like I got transported to Stowe.

 

Oh well. Paying dearly for past storms. Time to take a break and hope for something in January. So much time wasted for gut punches.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Please, please be Jan 2...

the 12z eps mean was really just fantastic 

it even targets a critically timed wave space injected through the western ridge, then ... into continental arena of rapid d(mode) ... at 324 hours. 

it's actually got continuity off the previous run cycle, just more coherence on this rendition.

the gefs and the geps have at least the overall signal too 

[CoastalWx]

Fuzzy Ginxy pic because I had to zoom but you can see where the trees stopped getting caked about 2 miles from the summit looking ESE

 

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the 12z eps mean was really just fantastic 

it even targets a critically timed wave space injected through the western ridge, then ... into continental arena of rapid d(mode) ... at 324 hours. 

it's actually got continuity off the previous run cycle, just more coherence on this rendition.

the gefs and the geps have at least the overall signal too 

I'm worried about the airmass for that threat, though. I think there's some kind of wave that moves through afterwards as that one you mentioned establishes a 50/50 ULL that can be a larger snow threat

[Damage In Tolland]

[alex]

Still snowing nicely here. A great surprise after the disappointment of the clipper a couple of days ago, ended up with 5" or so when we were expecting a couple at best

[Layman]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there a reason, theory, explanation or otherwise to explain that hole of nothingness that spans from SE NH into Northern MA?  I may be completely wrong, but it feels like that's been happening for the past 2-3 years or so.  Is it terrain based?  Just seems odd that this particular spot is kept snow-free while there's at least some snow all around it.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is there a reason, theory, explanation or otherwise to explain that hole of nothingness that spans from SE NH into Northern MA?  I may be completely wrong, but it feels like that's been happening for the past 2-3 years or so.  Is it terrain based?  Just seems odd that this particular spot is kept snow-free while there's at least some snow all around it.

That’s just bad luck. In January that area had the region’s largest snowstorm. However relative to normal that area since 18-19 has been below normal every season.

[rimetree]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s just bad luck. In January that area had the region’s largest snowstorm. However relative to normal that area since 18-19 has been below normal every season.

Basically -20 to -30 every year in that timeframe with decent events every so often

[Prismshine Productions]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

got to love the microclimate... Keene is 200ft more elevated yet I got 5 inches more

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That’s not my point though. We’ve been so warm for so long that we treat normal temps as cold now. This would be considered a torch month at some sites 25 years ago. I’d have to dig for the SNE Dec normals to see how much they changed though. The rad pits probably have the biggest change over the last 30 years. 
 

Anyway, down to 19/7 here with flurries. 

Siggy AN here, maybe, but not a torch.  My running average for December temps rose to 22.36° after 12/15's record 29.69.  We then had 4 straight BN months ('17 at 14.32, our coldest) that dragged the avg down to 21.64.  Then 20-23 were all AN, especially 22&23, and the avg is back to 22.34.  I expect this month to finish in the +1 to -1 range.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm worried about the airmass for that threat, though. I think there's some kind of wave that moves through afterwards as that one you mentioned establishes a 50/50 ULL that can be a larger snow threat

yeah ...my 'period of interesting' is the 31sth thru around the 5th or 6th ... the whole interval is heading into the basement.  yesterday i liked the 2-6th  - already posted but I'm shortening it a little out of deference for the nao uncertainties.

that cinema above was more to point out that the background/super synoptic ( non-linearity ) of the pattern is so conducive that even the ensemble mean is amplifying the first critter that dares to pass through that domain. 

that structure is nuts for this range.   but also, even if it is that first wave ... i'm not about to begin any debates on the temperature at this range anyway.  the -nao may be handled poorly at this range ( positioning that far S is suspect a little frankly ...).    point is there's room for correction, perhaps the obvious statement

[NH8550]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s just bad luck. In January that area had the region’s largest snowstorm. However relative to normal that area since 18-19 has been below normal every season.

I moved from coastal CT to one of those grey areas on the map in southern NH back around 2017. I remember the first year or two being good snow wise (relative to my expectations) but ever since a disappointment more often than not. 

Could even eek out more than a trace of snow yesterday as Boston got 6" lol. So much for white Christmas for the kids.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ...my 'period of interesting' is the 31sth thru around the 5th or 6th ... the whole interval is heading into the basement.  yesterday i liked the 2-6th  - already posted but I'm shortening it a little out of deference for the nao uncertainties.

that cinema above was more to point out that the background/super synoptic ( non-linearity ) of the pattern is so conducive that even the ensemble mean is amplifying the first critter that dares to pass through that domain. 

that structure is nuts for this range.   but also, even if it is that first wave ... i'm not about to begin any debates on the temperature at this range anyway.  the -nao may be handled poorly at this range ( positioning that far S is suspect a little frankly ...).    point is there's room for correction, perhaps the obvious statement

yeah, I kinda like the 3-6th more... Arctic airmass gets entrenched with a 50/50 ULL sitting nearby, block weakening and an open STJ. fireworks with this kind of look

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, I kinda like the 3-6th more... Arctic airmass gets entrenched with a 50/50 ULL sitting nearby, block weakening and an open STJ. fireworks with this kind of look

same ol song and dance

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Blue hill had about 7-8” at the base and solid 8-9 on the top. I think that was the jack there in Milton. Bottom half of the snow had some girth, but not very wet and pasty. We hiked up and enjoyed what we could. Was the perfect winter wonderland. Lots of people doing the same. I saw Tim Kelly up there too, talking to people.  Blue hill is maybe 7.2 miles as the crow flies and it seemed like I got transported to Stowe.

That's awesome dude.  Those photos are legit.  And that's why I haven't seen TK around this weekend, ha.

[Ginx snewx]

Buckle up Broncos LR is looking epic. We may achieve epicosity first time since the ferocious long blizzard of 22

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

same ol song and dance

Sorry this winter hasn't torched Tiger boy. Gonna be a long winter for you