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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks quite mild Christmas to early January. It’s going to take time to break that down I think, especially with no real MJO.

With the way things are looking to evolve for the end of the month moving into January...not a good sign at all. That isn't something that is just going to break down in a day or two either. Both the PAC and Arctic don't look to be doing us any favors...not a good sign to see moving into January. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

With the way things are looking to evolve for the end of the month moving into January...not a good sign at all. That isn't something that is just going to break down in a day or two either. Both the PAC and Arctic don't look to be doing us any favors...not a good sign to see moving into January. 

Yea. I mentioned I hate seeing the deep troughs establishing itself in the Northeast Pac /gulf of AK. That’s a hostile look for sne and would require some Atl assistance which doesn’t look like the case. It’s gonna get ugly for a bit and I don’t think it recovers as quickly as guidance may start showing. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I mentioned I hate seeing the deep troughs establishing itself in the Northeast Pac /gulf of AK. That’s a hostile look for sne and would require some Atl assistance which doesn’t look like the case. It’s gonna get ugly for a bit and I don’t think it recovers as quickly as guidance may start showing. 

Yup...often times guidance can be too quickly to break those types of patterns down. When you're getting deep troughs and potent lows into the GoA and that becomes reinforced, it is very hard to overcome that. You figure out peak winter climo for snow is like mid-January to mid-February...not a good look to see as we start to approach that period.

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15 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

In the top is  the Jan 29/30 2022 blizzard.

the bottom one was from Valentine’s Day 2017.  I think this was after the 3rd storm in like 10 days.  IIRC we were in store for another 10” that night.  I think we had like 50” in 7-10 days.  Epic.

 

IMG_0528.jpeg

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We had 5 storms worth 45.0" in 10 days, 2/7-16/2017.  Our Lab mix thru Maine Lab Rescue arrived (from TX) on the 4th - quite the shock for her!

Bath co-op recorded 16" from the freak band in mid-December 2020.

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16 minutes ago, tamarack said:

We had 5 storms worth 45.0" in 10 days, 2/7-16/2017.  Our Lab mix thru Maine Lab Rescue arrived (from TX) on the 4th - quite the shock for her!

Bath co-op recorded 16" from the freak band in mid-December 2020.

My labs loved the snow, used run head on into the drifts and had to hop out.

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Does anyone else feel in a weird spot between time moving faster but also slower? October absolutely flew by as did November...but it seemed like time slowed a bit towards the end of November. It seems like December is going by quickly...but slowly at the same time. Not sure if the weather is factoring into that at all but think about this...

We have not even officially hit winter yet and it feels like winter has sucked lmao. I mean...it's only freaking mid-December lol. It's like there is so much investment in OP runs looking at storms that pop up at 240+ hours that after like a month of being into the cool season, it's nothing but mental exhaustion. Reading some of the posts over the last week or two...you would think we're in like mid-February or late February and haven't had anything...it's only mid-December and we just hit that point. I gotta stop doing that too and breathe and realize its only mid-December. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Does anyone else feel in a weird spot between time moving faster but also slower? October absolutely flew by as did November...but it seemed like time slowed a bit towards the end of November. It seems like December is going by quickly...but slowly at the same time. Not sure if the weather is factoring into that at all but think about this...

We have not even officially hit winter yet and it feels like winter has sucked lmao. I mean...it's only freaking mid-December lol. It's like there is so much investment in OP runs looking at storms that pop up at 240+ hours that after like a month of being into the cool season, it's nothing but mental exhaustion. Reading some of the posts over the last week or two...you would think we're in like mid-February or late February and haven't had anything...it's only mid-December and we just hit that point. I gotta stop doing that too and breathe and realize its only mid-December. 

With all the weather models available that come out 2-4x daily plus the Euro going out to 360 hrs, I think days become a blur waiting for the next models. By the time the last one finished up with the ensembles, the next is ready to go....time definitely flies by to me. Need boring weather I guess to slow down time, ha!

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

With all the weather models available that come out 2-4x daily plus the Euro going out to 360 hrs, I think days become a blur waiting for the next models. By the time the last one finished up with the ensembles, the next is ready to go....time definitely flies by to me. Need boring weather I guess to slow down time, ha!

Yeah that's a good point haha. 

I mean I found myself a bit upset yesterday or Saturday night because I thought this upcoming Thursday had a chance and the evolution just flat out changed. 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks quite mild Christmas to early January. It’s going to take time to break that down I think, especially with no real MJO.

Flooding North America with pac air. Going to take some time to flush that airmass out if/when the pac improves. So reminiscent of the crap winters we have had recently 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah that's a good point haha. 

I mean I found myself a bit upset yesterday or Saturday night because I thought this upcoming Thursday had a chance and the evolution just flat out changed. 

In all honestly I almost ignored last night's wintry weather, looking ahead to Friday/Saturday ordeal and last night ended up being my 4th biggest "storm" in almost the last 2.5 years. Slow things down and just enjoy one day at a time I guess......

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

In all honestly I almost ignored last night's wintry weather, looking ahead to Friday/Saturday ordeal and last night ended up being my 4th biggest "storm" in almost the last 2.5 years. Slow things down and just enjoy one day at a time I guess......

It is fun to have something to track but starting to track storms because of a D10+ OP run...oof. You'll be mentally exhausted after two weeks. Even when we get storms though, the forecasting has been exceedingly difficult. Very little model-to-model consistency and run-to-run consistency within 48 hours...this adds a whole new level of stress into the game, especially for those who do forecasting. 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is fun to have something to track but starting to track storms because of a D10+ OP run...oof. You'll be mentally exhausted after two weeks. Even when we get storms though, the forecasting has been exceedingly difficult. Very little model-to-model consistency and run-to-run consistency within 48 hours...this adds a whole new level of stress into the game, especially for those who do forecasting. 

Too many models ran too many times per day adds to the inconsistency. It takes a higher degree of skill thesedays to be able to weed through all the noise. 

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20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Flooding North America with pac air. Going to take some time to flush that airmass out if/when the pac improves. So reminiscent of the crap winters we have had recently 

And the trend of warm Decembers continues. 7 years now since our last cold December. With the exception of 3 years between 1995-2017, every La Nina December was cold. 

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13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Too many models ran too many times per day adds to the inconsistency. It takes a higher degree of skill thesedays to be able to weed through all the noise. 

Data overload is certainly an issue. There is no realistic way for one to assess every piece of guidance for every available run. There are also way too many products available. This may seem like a good thing but it really isn't. 

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17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Too many models ran too many times per day adds to the inconsistency. It takes a higher degree of skill thesedays to be able to weed through all the noise. 

There's something to be said for the ECMWF style of modeling. They have one, very good model and then they just adjust it from there to suit their needs. You get 4x daily deterministic, you get an ensemble, you get an extended run.

They aren't wasting resources running a GFS, NAM, nested NAM, HRRR, SREF, CFS, etc. 

Now the trick is creating a very good model to start with.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

There's something to be said for the ECMWF style of modeling. They have one, very good model and then they just adjust it from there to suit their needs. You get 4x daily deterministic, you get an ensemble, you get an extended run.

They aren't wasting resources running a GFS, NAM, nested NAM, HRRR, SREF, CFS, etc. 

Now the trick is creating a very good model to start with.

I don't know how much, if any, resources this eats up but why is a NAM MOS run? 99% of the time it's a piece of junk and laughable. 

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Here in Boston we are currently tracking for our "coldest" December since 2017. Zoom out a bit further however, and it just goes to show how the broader shift in climate is moving the goalposts as to what is perceived as being "cold". 

  • 2000-2010: 6 of 10 years @ 35 degrees or colder
  • 2010-2024: 2 of 14  years @ 35 degrees or colder

image.png.90661f83c6fe1d2dc5c80e9a856371ca.png

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24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know how much, if any, resources this eats up but why is a NAM MOS run? 99% of the time it's a piece of junk and laughable. 

Can't have too much life left. NBM MOS will replace it and the GFS MOS sooner rather than later. 

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