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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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Some random thoughts….

I’ve been googling vacations to Hawaii of late.  

ineedsnow has gone from fun to borderline insufferable.

Life is actually more enjoyable when I’m not impeded by snow and/or obsessing about it.

See you all at 18z…

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Again, big ridge over NewFoundie is not what you want to see for SNE. 

we have had a similar longwave pattern for Jan 2022 and Jan 2014. tall ridge over the Pac NW / NW Rockies, deep trough with TPV interaction into the OH Valley, and a WAR pushing into Nova Scotia. not calling for a MECS or anything but there are similarities

compday.KeaUlUgIIZ.gif.72f1ea8d28959900619e7b5d3603001d.gifcompday.lW9PmGGdt7.gif.539455f557b360d9e755ebeec6740d5e.gif

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we have had a similar longwave pattern for Jan 2022 and Jan 2014. tall ridge over the Pac NW / NW Rockies, deep trough with TPV interaction into the OH Valley, and a WAR pushing into Nova Scotia. not calling for a MECS or anything but there are similarities

compday.KeaUlUgIIZ.gif.72f1ea8d28959900619e7b5d3603001d.gifcompday.lW9PmGGdt7.gif.539455f557b360d9e755ebeec6740d5e.gif

I just like to see low heights over the maritimes for the coastal plain. Just gives more room for error. Otherwise, it is highly dependent on timing and shortwave interaction. Where Anything that digs deep gets slung inland.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I just like to see low heights over the maritimes for the coastal plain. Just gives more room for error. Otherwise, it is highly dependent on timing and shortwave interaction. Where Anything that digs deep gets slung inland.

that is true, I generally agree... it has been done before, though. i would kinda argue that you want a bit of a WAR. things can become suppressed if you have a massive PNA ridge alongside a large 50/50, especially up by you guys. that's often how you get the NYC-DC specials

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The GFS just goes nuclear and digs for oil while the original anafrontal s/w zips out of here and can't force something like a 50/50 low for confluence.  The ridge amplification is needed regardless.

verbatim it's a version of late Feb 2010 that even fucks over NYC (sorry)

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

that is true, I generally agree... it has been done before, though. i would kinda argue that you want a bit of a WAR. things can become suppressed if you have a massive PNA ridge alongside a large 50/50, especially up by you guys. that's often how you get the NYC-DC specials

Yea. Not looking for a huge 50/50 though. Just something there that can keep the flow more along the plain. 

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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian tries for the 12/22 system too but comes in a bit shallower with the shortwave so it’s like a clipper/redeveloper south of New England. 
 

Lot of moving parts between 12/19-12/22. 

ggem's classic wave space negative interference.   

gfs looks unrealistic having both the way it conserves them

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 i posted this in the other thread but i encourage those with real curiosity to have a look. 

the 00z eps evolution shows at least one plausible result where it ends up with better 500 mb phasing of these these two contentious wave spaces. 

i don't believe the gfs handling is very realistic - not a knock on the model at 180 hours ...no.  but the lead wave is moving too fast in the flow.. if the x coordinate velocity exceeds the y field too much, bipass occurs. not sure the is wholesale right. i've noted in the past that the gfs has a velocity bias ( which is masked by a flow that is also that way ...making it difficult to parse out which is which...)  

the eps has a slower x coordinate velocity ( wave motion...), so it allows the waves to harmonize/coalesce near pa in that solution.   the member mean being positioned over ne ny is prooobably more owing to lack of lower cold but details details

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looks like the 12z eps is buckin' for a marginal mixy deal around the 14th ...weak, but 850's are 0c ish with a wave coming through in this mean

edit, never mind ...this was my usual idiocy with dates working against me... it's in fact the zygote circulation for the 20th i was looking at...

 

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