dendrite Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wow what a global blowtorch on the ensembles. No cold to be found anywhere. At least everyone's f*cked this winter Happy Friday the 13th! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Random question. Do Op runs have more skills than the individual Ens members when taken individually? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Portions of northern New England could get a nice event at the end of the week followed by another round of epic LES Friday/weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EPS was a disaster with the pig in Alaska starting to show at the tail end.. Amazing flip-flopping on 00z and 12z .. Wake up to same old December from 00z , then all weenies rejoice at 12z for several days now.. Although all guidance does agree on a Nation wide torch after Christmas Day and some cold leading up to Christmas. Non-Scientific opinion is the general 00z theme will end up winning out and we wait til well after New Years... End of EPS was garbage too at 12z. Might be time to take a break and enjoy the holidays before I burn all decorations. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Sometime in the past we experienced our last snow otg Christmas and we didn't even know it. Sad it's ruined for the kids now. Climate change is a bitch.. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Being right never felt so wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: This is true Horrible overnight runs No one should be surprised... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Back into the toilet. I’m fine with blowtorch so long as it’s a dry blowtorch. No rain/warm followed by two cold sunny days, followed by more rain/warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 56 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Being right never felt so wrong. Yup....hope we didn't have our winter like week last week with absolutely nothing until spring. That would definitely suck. But these 1-2 week winters are getting old now, this is what I had come to know living in Delaware, not SNE...Warm/wet, cold/dry continues for the foreseable future it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 hour ago, Hazey said: Sometime in the past we experienced our last snow otg Christmas and we didn't even know it. Sad it's ruined for the kids now. Climate change is a bitch.. Kids will be asking why are there so many songs about snow on Christmas? What is a white Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Kids will be asking why are there so many songs about snow on Christmas? What is a white Christmas? Why is Santa in a sleigh and not a wagon or E-Scooter? What are snowmen? Darn shame but at least we got to experience the magic years ago when times were good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Always get a good laugh from this thread in the mornings. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Always get a good laugh from this thread in the mornings. If the trend holds it should revert back to at least half good vibes after the 12z weenie runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Yup....hope we didn't have our winter like week last week with absolutely nothing until spring. That would definitely suck. But these 1-2 week winters are getting old now, this is what I had come to know living in Delaware, not SNE...Warm/wet, cold/dry continues for the foreseable future it seems Don’t lose hope. Apparently January looks good at h5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 May have to watch for a burst of snow on Monday with that lead shortwave. Still enough antecedent cold around on a lot of these solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Always get a good laugh from this thread in the mornings. The only thing missing is the CT predator violently mauling posters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: May have to watch for a burst of snow on Monday with that lead shortwave. Still enough antecedent cold around on a lot of these solutions. Ya RGEM is coldest - most guidance is CNE north, lets see if we can get some colder further south solutions to include more of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: May have to watch for a burst of snow on Monday with that lead shortwave. Still enough antecedent cold around on a lot of these solutions. Been assessing that this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another scenario, particularly in the valleys where it takes an awful long time to mix out. Hell, there even seems to be enough to keep some colder air wedged in even at 925. Some pretty strong WAA going on too so I wouldn't be surprised if the degree of QPF is a bit underdone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 I'd love to speed that system up 6-8 hours and trend colder, doing a Christmas Sleigh Ride in Shelton Sunday at 7:30pm, would be awesome to have a few flakes in the air for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 it's too bad folks don't channel a mental space where they see realistically plausible corrections. some can rely upon that visualization space, one that is constructed out of what can happen and what needs to happen to get it done ... it's like an "effective imagination," not just imagining and waiting. it seems like people have to actually see the object on the daily modeling cinema. it's not always the case ... some of the times there's stuff going on that is - I guess ... - just outside of capacitance to sense or detect it for those. and so this mood thing gets entirely controlled by the unknowable. man, that's a weird hell. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: May have to watch for a burst of snow on Monday with that lead shortwave. Still enough antecedent cold around on a lot of these solutions. Before 50’s and rain Tuesday unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 The only cold we get now is on the back side of storms for a couple days. Gone are the days where you get a month of cold temps because of the actual pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: If the trend holds it should revert back to at least half good vibes after the 12z weenie runs.. I’m not even that worried about the few days after Xmas…if it ends up milder, so be it but there’s strong evidence the Aleutian low retrogrades southwest so we’d see a rebuilding of the western ridge beyond that. I’m also a little skeptical at the degree of breakdown in the first place. Guidance has been underestimating the amplitude of the ridge when we have an Aleutian low so far this month. Been a lot of volatility in the extended range these last two weeks. That’s one reason I’d also pump the brakes on the pre-Xmas storm analysis. Prob gonna see more changes on that as guidance tries to figure out the ridge amplitude and shortwaves. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not even that worried about the few days after Xmas…if it ends up milder, so be it but there’s strong evidence the Aleutian low retrogrades southwest so we’d see a rebuilding of the western ridge beyond that. I’m also a little skeptical at the degree of breakdown in the first place. Guidance has been underestimating the amplitude of the ridge when we have an Aleutian low so far this month. Been a lot of volatility in the extended range these last two weeks. That’s one reason I’d also pump the brakes on the pre-Xmas storm analysis. Prob gonna see more changes on that as guidance tries to figure out the ridge amplitude and shortwaves. No doubt, all we know is that a storm (potentially significant) is likely, where, when, magnitude, and ptypes, we have a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's too bad folks don't channel a mental space where they see realistically plausible corrections. some can rely upon that visualization space, one that is constructed out of what can happen and what needs to happen to get it done ... it's like an "effective imagination," not just imagining and waiting. it seems like people have to actually see the object on the daily modeling cinema. it's not always the case ... some of the times there's stuff going on that is - I guess ... - just outside of capacitance to sense or detect it for those. and so this mood thing gets entirely controlled by the unknowable. man, that's a weird hell. We need results. It’s a make or break season for many especially delicate souls like Scooter where little kids Christmas’s are in jeopardy. Nobody wants to see that so all the pretty Brooklyn h5 maps won’t cut it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's too bad folks don't channel a mental space where they see realistically plausible corrections. some can rely upon that visualization space, one that is constructed out of what can happen and what needs to happen to get it done ... it's like an "effective imagination," not just imagining and waiting. it seems like people have to actually see the object on the daily modeling cinema. it's not always the case ... some of the times there's stuff going on that is - I guess ... - just outside of capacitance to sense or detect it for those. and so this mood thing gets entirely controlled by the unknowable. man, that's a weird hell. Comparing model runs beyond 180 hours and coming to the conclusion that the models "lost" the storm because 0z had a storm coming up the coast while 6z is 300 miles offshore is a head scratcher. I also don't understand how the OP can be defined as "bad" just because the SLP maps don't show something. But I think people know that and well...this is a good place to vent frustrations But when that bleeds into interrupting good discussion then it gets old. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m not even that worried about the few days after Xmas…if it ends up milder, so be it but there’s strong evidence the Aleutian low retrogrades southwest so we’d see a rebuilding of the western ridge beyond that. I’m also a little skeptical at the degree of breakdown in the first place. Guidance has been underestimating the amplitude of the ridge when we have an Aleutian low so far this month. Been a lot of volatility in the extended range these last two weeks. That’s one reason I’d also pump the brakes on the pre-Xmas storm analysis. Prob gonna see more changes on that as guidance tries to figure out the ridge amplitude and shortwaves. Would like to continue seeing this as we get to our climatological peak period. Get this pattern to remain and we we continue to see wavelengths change in response to the season...sometimes that can be all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Would like to continue seeing this as we get to our climatological peak period. Get this pattern to remain and we we continue to see wavelengths change in response to the season...sometimes that can be all the difference. The problem that continues to pop up is when the ridge builds out west and we get an EC trough, I see maritime ridging that sends any shortwave inland…and when there is less ridging over the maritimes, it’s cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The problem that continues to pop up is when the ridge builds out west and we get an EC trough, I see maritime ridging that sends any shortwave inland…and when there is less ridging over the maritimes, it’s cold and dry. It's definitely a concern, no doubt. But we have to start somewhere. When you're in such a rut like we're in, often things have to do perfectly....that philosophy even extends outside of weather. Look at sports, when teams are rolling sometimes it seems no matter what they do it works out beautifully but when you're in a rut...nothing can seem to go right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Comparing model runs beyond 180 hours and coming to the conclusion that the models "lost" the storm because 0z had a storm coming up the coast while 6z is 300 miles offshore is a head scratcher. I also don't understand how the OP can be defined as "bad" just because the SLP maps don't show something. But I think people know that and well...this is a good place to vent frustrations But when that bleeds into interrupting good discussion then it gets old. oh i've mused a few times over the years how this social media depot is an open support group for those with weather modeling 'blue light' addiction issues 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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