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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks pretty hostile overall to me. Start praying and hold the rosary if you want something.

Yea, the Xmas week potental to me is akin to a NESN article from the interest Kings...."We are really interested in snowing Xmas week"....."snow is in the mix"......"a wintry outcome is making a competeitive bid to get within 50 miles of the coast". Rest assured, the next and final update will be when you look out your window and see puddles and the only consolation is pictures of @powderfreak's Mansfield stake with a mistletoe on top.

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It will change. Question marks and crosses until then.

12z?

 

I'd wait until a few more days given how volatile it’s been. Definitely a signal to watch, but it’s more thread the needle stuff. Couple of opportunities perhaps.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the Xmas week potental to me is akin to a NESN article from the interest Kings...."We are really interested in snowing Xmas week"....."snow is in the mix"......"a wintry outcome is making a competeitive bid to get within 50 miles of the coast". Rest assured, the next and final update will be when you look out your window and see puddles and the only consolation is pictures of @powderfreak's Mansfield stake with a mistletoe on top.

“In the end we just weren’t comfortable with overpaying to get the weather we wanted on Christmas.”

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the Xmas week potental to me is akin to a NESN article from the interest Kings...."We are really interested in snowing Xmas week"....."snow is in the mix"......"a wintry outcome is making a competeitive bid to get within 50 miles of the coast". Rest assured, the next and final update will be when you look out your window and see puddles and the only consolation is pictures of @powderfreak's Mansfield stake with a mistletoe on top.

Looking out at brown ground while we see fuzzy images of the Stowe gondola and pictures of New Yorkers strolling the streets giggling and holding hands in the snow while they sip their $10 latte’s. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking out at brown ground while we see fuzzy images of the Stowe gondola and pictures of New Yorkers strolling the streets giggling and holding hands in the snow while they sip their $10 latte’s. 

If we're really lucky, maybe a shot of Hubb Dave's yard with him and Juan Soto tobogganing through a field.

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21 minutes ago, Ski Patroller said:

 Anyway, add American beech to Eastern hemlock, White ash, American chestnut, and American elm. We're losing the Eastern forest in both structural and functional realms.

iStock-1402653664-1620x1080.jpg

It’s spreading quickly in Maine, where half our biomass is suckered beech in early successional forests. The eastern forest has been going through an ecological crisis for the last century and maybe 2% of the population is even aware. It’s just thoughts and prayers when their shade tree dies. 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z yin-yang. 12z guidance seems to be more optimistic the last couple days while 00z looks ugly. Most of the ugliness so there’s no real antecedent airmass for the pre-Xmas threat. 

best to accept the LR guidance is without a clue on how to handle that Pacific trough. these run to run deltas around Christmas on the GEFS are silly. just zero consistency. way less than normal

ezgif-3-5db86ddbb6.thumb.gif.7e81108a297e4e22c21f82890fd42058.gif

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looking out at brown ground while we see fuzzy images of the Stowe gondola and pictures of New Yorkers strolling the streets giggling and holding hands in the snow while they sip their $10 latte’s. 

My winters have evolved into living vicariously through PFs posts, where each Like I send results in a piece of my soul leaving my body

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12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

My winters have evolved into living vicariously through PFs posts, where each Like I send results in a piece of my soul leaving my body

Yeah they are beautiful pics, but at the same time..blow darts into my eyes. 

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17 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

It’s spreading quickly in Maine, where half our biomass is suckered beech in early successional forests. The eastern forest has been going through an ecological crisis for the last century and maybe 2% of the population is even aware. It’s just thoughts and prayers when their shade tree dies. 

we'll always have the norway maples....LOL

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15 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I was up in the St John Valley that week…drove home on New Year’s Eve day, and it was literally the same temp when I got home in CT, as it was when I left St Agatha, ME.  Brutal cold that week/day when got home to CT. 

12/29/17 was the coldest mean I've had since moving here in May 1998.  Its -1/-31 was 36° BN.  The week 12/27-1/2 averaged 29° BN, with temp 2/-22.  The 15 days 12/25 thru 1/8 ran 21° BN, with temp 9/-14 plus 22" snow.

Had 0.15" ZR overnight with 0.1" accretion.  Driving to PWM midday for wife's (long scheduled) procedure, should be interesting travel.

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31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

best to accept the LR guidance is without a clue on how to handle that Pacific trough. these run to run deltas around Christmas on the GEFS are silly. just zero consistency. way less than normal

ezgif-3-5db86ddbb6.thumb.gif.7e81108a297e4e22c21f82890fd42058.gif

So you’re saying …we just don’t know?  I thought so.  Even METS are seeing the light. 

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47 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

It’s spreading quickly in Maine, where half our biomass is suckered beech in early successional forests. The eastern forest has been going through an ecological crisis for the last century and maybe 2% of the population is even aware. It’s just thoughts and prayers when their shade tree dies. 

Beech has been suffering from beech bark syndrome (exotic scale insect plus exotic fungus) for more than a century.  Beechnuts are the premier hard mast in Maine's northerly half, especially for bear.  Big beechnut crop means lots of new cubs showing up in the spring.  Another exotic moving into new places is balsam wooly adelgid, now being found far from the usual coastal infestations.  By number of trees (including seedlings/saplings), balsam fir is Maine's most abundant tree.  That species plus red spruce, backbone of Maine lumber production, are also vulnerable to the warming climate.

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you’re saying …we just don’t know?  I thought so.  Even METS are seeing the light. 

it's not black or white like that.  just sayn'

every situation is taken uniquely, with at least some deference to known influences that can and typically do force things to happen - and the additional 'art' there is that the amounts also vary.   this latter aspect is crucial.   those that discuss aspects out in time are operating at a higher confidence than 'just not knowing,' because they may ( or may not ...) have access intellectually to what those influences are.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So you’re saying …we just don’t know?  I thought so.  Even METS are seeing the light. 

It's almost comical to toggle back through prior runs and look at the gross inconsistency. I expect this as it's how they've been forever. Like Tip said yesterday, there is some optimism in the PAC, but we just don't know how it will evolve as it's a couple weeks out. I could be wrong, but color me optimistic about the general pattern that's showing vs the last few years

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