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December 2024 - Best look to an early December pattern in many a year!


FXWX
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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

We also made 50% or less posts back in the day.  You only posted if you had something substantial to add to the discourse.  I wouldn’t have made this post back in the OG days.

Now we are stream of consciousDeleteness and it feels more emotional than scientific.

That was only true in model and storm threads.  The more open threads were at least 1/3 sexual innuendos and altered quotes.   It was so prevalent I still expect that someone will respond to my report of having 7" new this morning  with a "that's not what she said"

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wait until a monster storm hits!! you'll be in your glory.. 
Happened once before actually

December 2018 there was a snowstorm for central NC on the D6 GFS and I rookie weenied and pulled the trigger by making a storm thread. As expected, I got clowned on by the more seasoned folks...

It ended up being Winter Storm Diego



Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Happened once before actually

December 2018 there was a snowstorm for central NC on the D6 GFS and I rookie weenied and pulled the trigger by making a storm thread. As expected, I got clowned on by the more seasoned folks...

It ended up being Winter Storm Diego



Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

What was Diego?

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Where was all this consistent moisture two months ago when I was outside watering nearly everyday trying to salvage the last tumbleweeds on deaths door on the front lawn? It always seems to come when you least expect it or even want it lol. But hey, better late than never I suppose.

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33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z yin-yang. 12z guidance seems to be more optimistic the last couple days while 00z looks ugly. Most of the ugliness so there’s no real antecedent airmass for the pre-Xmas threat. 

Just for fun, the EC-AI And 6z GFS OPs would be a decent lead up through Christmas. I know it's OP fantasy at this range but nice to see some evolutions that don't all lead to grinch

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z yin-yang. 12z guidance seems to be more optimistic the last couple days while 00z looks ugly. Most of the ugliness so there’s no real antecedent airmass for the pre-Xmas threat

This is what I was just noticing...made some comments over in Tip's thread. This is going to be a tedious needle-threader....the ceiling is probably a theramal field a akin to last January, or early Feb 2021....the coast is going to struggle, regardless. This would be more doable for the coast a month or two from now.

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41 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Just for fun, the EC-AI And 6z GFS OPs would be a decent lead up through Christmas. I know it's OP fantasy at this range but nice to see some evolutions that don't all lead to grinch

GEFS actually looked good the week of Xmas. Funny part was the EPS previously was the one looking the best now it’s the GEFS. EPS doesn’t look bad, just not as good as it did. 
 

There’s actually a decent shot at something between about 12/21-12/22 and 12/26 looking at the position of the mean longwaves. The western ridge retrogrades after the 12/21-22 “threat”, which would open up some room to get an additional system within a few days after. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS actually looked good the week of Xmas. Funny part was the EPS previously was the one looking the best now it’s the GEFS. EPS doesn’t look bad, just not as good as it did. 
 

There’s actually a decent shot at something between about 12/21-12/22 and 12/26 looking at the position of the mean longwaves. The western ridge retrogrades after the 12/21-22 “threat”, which would open up some room to get an additional system within a few days after. 

I was just looking at 00z.

Yea, I have no issue with the longwave pattern...but good luck with the lack of antecedent airmass and SSTs near 50*. This is why I am saying the ceiling here is a rt 128 type of storm. That has real December 1996 vibes.

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11 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Best firewood we can get around here, I like Beech too but that's even harder to get.

It won't be hard to get soon. The non-native invasive beech nematode Litylenchus crenatae McCannii is in the process of essentially extirpating the species in the Northeast and the state forestry agencies are starting salvage cutting on state lands and encouraging private landowners to do the same (which contravenes good science but they aren't about science so....). Anyway, add American beech to Eastern hemlock, White ash, American chestnut, and American elm. We're losing the Eastern forest in both structural and functional realms.

iStock-1402653664-1620x1080.jpg

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