WinterWolf Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Imagine a TV met tossing every single forecasting tool and going full wolf mode. Just a map of question marks and crosses… But that’s not what I mean, and you know that. In long range what I mean is you can make a call, but ultimately you just don’t know what could happen …Will just said that, and so did John. We kid…but ultimately it’s just a guess at two weeks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Imagine a TV met tossing every single forecasting tool and going full wolf mode. Just a map of question marks and crosses… Or doing a full on Berg as a TV MET, and saying nothing until 2025…it can go both ways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 I enjoy the forecasting part of the hobby. That’s the difference between being a captain obvious poster vs making a reasonable guess of the future. I say captain obvious because of course “we don’t know” the future but that doesn’t or shouldn’t stop us from trying to predict it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Kid praying that the ensembles look good…or daddy gets upset and breaks things. Poor kid thinks Greta took his winter away, especially seeing a FB memory of him measuring snow 7 years ago. He's gone too. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I enjoy the forecasting part of the hobby. That’s the difference between being a captain obvious poster vs making a reasonable guess of the future. I say captain obvious because of course “we don’t know” the future but that doesn’t or shouldn’t stop us from trying to predict it. But nobody ever said that Luke. I certainly didn’t. I push back when folks say at 3-4 weeks out, that there won’t be any thing wintry coming in that time frame ..especially when ensembles and weeklies are obviously in a very volatile state currently. I certainly do appreciate a call one way or the other, and don’t have an issue with that. And think those that try to predict it, should absolutely do so. But ultimately…as Will just intimated…. A signal is certainly there, but we have to wait and see. If you were a TV met, would you say on 12/10, that there won’t be any wintry weather until after the new year? You could be right? But I wouldn’t say that at this stage if I was an On camera MET….not with what we’ve been seeing the last few days. My call…I think a wintry event is quite possible the last 7-10 days of December. That’s my gut call at the moment. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 End of the EURO put us in the freezer, this is Christmas Eve MorningSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: End of the EURO put us in the freezer, this is Christmas Eve Morning Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Change the °F to °C and it might be correct. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 4 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: Has the EC-AI shown any skill yet? That's the kinda evolution one could hope for if you don't want a grinch pattern around Christmas. So glad you asked. I have been following it closely since the early fall, and so far, it is the best model. Granted, my analysis is for our little area only, and is entirely empirical. Here is a little anecdotal example: I am also active on a Notre Dame football board, where I have installed myself as the weather nerd in-chief. About 5 days ago, it appeared likely that we would be hosting Alabama on the 20th. Of course, I went to the maps hoping for the most miserable cold possible for northern Indiana in December. At that time, gfs and euro showed a nationwide zonal flow, with temps far above normal for SBN. Euro AI on the other hand, had deep winter. I am not ready to spike the ball, since we are only on the 15 yard line, but AI has held fairly steady while the others are showing signs of capitulation. We'll see what happens! I am ready to make this prediction: Next year at this time we will all be going to the AI models first...with occasional references to the "legacy models". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: So glad you asked. I have been following it closely since the early fall, and so far, it is the best model. Granted, my analysis is for our little area only, and is entirely empirical. Here is a little anecdotal example: I am also active on a Notre Dame football board, where I have installed myself as the weather nerd in-chief. About 5 days ago, it appeared likely that we would be hosting Alabama on the 20th. Of course, I went to the maps hoping for the most miserable cold possible for northern Indiana in December. At that time, gfs and euro showed a nationwide zonal flow, with temps far above normal for SBN. Euro AI on the other hand, had deep winter. I am not ready to spike the ball, since we are only on the 15 yard line, but AI has held fairly steady while the others are showing signs of capitulation. We'll see what happens! I am ready to make this prediction: Next year at this time we will all be going to the AI models first...with occasional references to the "legacy models". Where do you access those models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Where do you access those models?They slowly rolling out, Euro AI is already available on Tropical Tidbits and PivotalSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 36 degree fog. Lovely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: But nobody ever said that Luke. I certainly didn’t. I push back when folks say at 3-4 weeks out, that there won’t be any thing wintry coming in that time frame ..especially when ensembles and weeklies are obviously in a very volatile state currently. I certainly do appreciate a call one way or the other, and don’t have an issue with that. And think those that try to predict it, should absolutely do so. But ultimately…as Will just intimated…. A signal is certainly there, but we have to wait and see. If you were a TV met, would you say on 12/10, that there won’t be any wintry weather until after the new year? You could be right? But I wouldn’t say that at this stage if I was an On camera MET….not with what we’ve been seeing the last few days. My call…I think a wintry event is quite possible the last 7-10 days of December. That’s my gut call at the moment. There you go. Let your hair down. You’re coming around… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 19 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 36 degree fog. Lovely Christmas in London. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said: End of the EURO put us in the freezer, this is Christmas Eve Morning Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk A few years ago Christmas Eve was also really cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm right on the NH border in Methuen. I'll be in the hospital from Jan 3 through like the 7th, so book one then, too. My oldest was born during a NorEaster Jan 3 2003. I'm sure @ORH_wxman can go into great detail about the specifics of that storm. Will is a machine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 31.1° -ZR Here comes the glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Change the °F to °C and it might be correct. Do that and it's almost exactly average (29/12 for 12/24) here. I was looking for a repeat of the week following Christmas 2017, a cold snap worthy of the St. John Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 36 degree fog. Lovely Absolutely nothing redeeming about the day. Brutal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 36 minutes ago, tamarack said: Do that and it's almost exactly average (29/12 for 12/24) here. I was looking for a repeat of the week following Christmas 2017, a cold snap worthy of the St. John Valley. I was up in the St John Valley that week…drove home on New Year’s Eve day, and it was literally the same temp when I got home in CT, as it was when I left St Agatha, ME. Brutal cold that week/day when got home to CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Christmas in London. Not true, I have seen every Netflix and Hallmark movie set in the UK, all 927 of them. It always snows in London for Christmas- even in the years when the trees still are fully leafed out and green. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Guidance is there, we trackSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 13 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Guidance is there, we track Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Fantastic. Ready the sultan signal. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Tracking d11 these days. What the blue fuck! 4 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 19 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Guidance is there, we track Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk That won’t even be there at 0z. Watch potential signals on the ensembles as has been instructed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 That won’t even be there at 0z. Watch potential signals on the ensembles as has been instructed. Ensembles show something, moreso than 12zSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Moonshine productions 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Moonshine productionsHere to keep the morale up one post at a time, cheers mateSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 9 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Here to keep the morale up one post at a time, cheers mate Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk I remember when I too used to wonder why being so positive was always frowned upon. I used to react and get bothered when someone would make a sny remark already sarcastic reply. I don't anymore. I also get some of the frustration that other s get as well. But I will tell you is is, if we get a good stretch of some good old winter, everyone will be on board and all the posts will be a good one's. For now, it's just the same old, same old. Trying to find the best crumb on the floor...lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 At least the GFS op is serviceable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I remember when I too used to wonder why being so positive was always frowned upon. I used to react and get bothered when someone would make a sny remark already sarcastic reply. I don't anymore. I also get some of the frustration that other s get as well. But I will tell you is is, if we get a good stretch of some good old winter, everyone will be on board and all the posts will be a good one's. For now, it's just the same old, same old. Trying to find the best crumb on the floor...lol Absolutely. People can post what they want. Good stretches are great in here. Man it's been awhile for that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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